The crypto market is bracing for a huge options expiry event — roughly $8.7 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts are expiring today on Deribit, marking one of the largest monthly expiries recently.
Bitcoin accounts for the bulk of the exposure, with about $7.7 billion in notional $BTC options approaching settlement and a “max pain” level sitting near $75,000 — above the current spot price. Ethereum follows with nearly $975 million in options and its max pain around $2,200.
Implied volatility remains elevated, with BTC’s IV percentile well above average and $ETH ’s absolute volatility high as well — both signaling sensitivity to price swings around expiry. Put/call ratios below 1.0 indicate call dominance, but skew still reflects lingering defensive hedging.
These expiries don’t guarantee direction, but they often amplify short-term volatility as hedges unwind and positions roll over. With both Bitcoin and Ethereum trading below their max pain targets, prices could naturally gravitate toward those levels as settlement unfolds.
Volatility isn’t a bug, it’s part of the derivative structure.
Does today’s options expiry spark a short-term squeeze higher toward max pain, or does the pain trade push spot toward lower strikes before settling?