US inflation faces a fresh push higher as the oil shock starts feeding into March CPI
⛽ Markets are waiting for the first real inflation snapshot in the US after the Middle East oil shock, with March CPI due on April 10. Bloomberg reported that economists expect a sharp monthly rise, while average US gasoline prices have already moved above $4 a gallon after the surge in energy costs.
📈 What matters most is that this wave is being driven mainly by energy, meaning a supply shock rather than overheating domestic demand. That makes headline inflation more vulnerable than core inflation, while also pushing pressure into transport, logistics, and other fuel-sensitive goods.
🏦 For markets, the bigger implication is that expectations for Fed easing may keep getting pushed back. The OECD has already lifted its 2026 US inflation forecast to 4.2%, so if oil stays elevated into Q2, the story may shift from a short-term CPI spike to a broader stagflation risk.