$BTC appears to be in the final phase of its bear market.
• Could it drop further?
Yes.
• Could this phase drag on for a few more months?
Also yes.
This stage is all about putting long-term holders (LTHs) under pressure.
It usually begins with short-term holders (STHs), who’ve already been feeling the strain over the past six months, before that pressure gradually shifts toward LTHs.
This cycle has played out consistently across previous market downturns.
One of the best ways to track this is through the LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). It shows whether long-term holders are selling at a profit or a loss when they move their coins.
While it’s not perfectly precise since it includes all spent outputs, even simple transfers it still offers a strong view of the overall trend.
💥 Right now, the 30-day moving average of LTH SOPR is below 1, sitting around 0.96, which signals that losses are being realized.
At the same time, the yearly average remains positive at 1.71, largely due to the lag in longer-term data.
When long term holders consistently start realizing losses, it often becomes a key signal to watch for potential long-term accumulation opportunities.
This is a phase best approached with patience and a long-term perspective.
• Could it drop further?
Yes.
• Could this phase drag on for a few more months?
Also yes.
This stage is all about putting long-term holders (LTHs) under pressure.
It usually begins with short-term holders (STHs), who’ve already been feeling the strain over the past six months, before that pressure gradually shifts toward LTHs.
This cycle has played out consistently across previous market downturns.
One of the best ways to track this is through the LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). It shows whether long-term holders are selling at a profit or a loss when they move their coins.
While it’s not perfectly precise since it includes all spent outputs, even simple transfers it still offers a strong view of the overall trend.
💥 Right now, the 30-day moving average of LTH SOPR is below 1, sitting around 0.96, which signals that losses are being realized.
At the same time, the yearly average remains positive at 1.71, largely due to the lag in longer-term data.
When long term holders consistently start realizing losses, it often becomes a key signal to watch for potential long-term accumulation opportunities.
This is a phase best approached with patience and a long-term perspective.