$BTC opened today at $77,414 its lowest open since the start of the month and has been sliding ever since now sitting at $76,430. First it flushed hard to $76,800 and shook out the weak hands. Then it bounced just enough to make people think the bottom was in. That's not a recovery. That's the setup. This is the classic double trap. Bears got squeezed at the $77.6K flush and panicked into covering. Now bulls are rushing in on a bounce that has zero confirmation behind it. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 28 deep fear and 9 out of 23 technical signals are bearish versus only 7 bullish. The market is not recovering. It's deciding.
The reason is Iran tensions escalated over the weekend. Trump's Truth Social post spooked risk assets and stock futures opened lower alongside rising oil prices. BTC followed as it always does when the broader market goes risk off. Until there's a clean daily close back above $79,000 every bounce is just noise. Support below sits between $74,800–$75,500. Lose that and $72K becomes the conversation.
Most will chase this bounce. Patient traders wait for proof. Confirmation over prediction. Every single time.