Could Bitcoin Have Now Transformed into a Stable Macro Asset?

This chart actually creates a fairly strong cycle state map. Model Variance is currently in the NEGATIVE region.

The Stock-to-Flow model is currently in the deep green region. This means the Bitcoin price is significantly below the theoretical value of S2F. In other words, #BTC may be historically undervalued. This is important because at the 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks, the variance was in the red. Now it's the opposite.

The Realized Price is rising very strongly. This is the on-chain cost base. The Realized Price is rising aggressively, but the price hasn't surpassed it significantly. This usually indicates strong capital inflow, long-term investor accumulation, and large amounts of money bought at the bottom. In 2021, the price was very detached from the realized price. Now there isn't that much detachment. This points to a healthier cycle structure.

At cycle tops, old holders sell aggressively. CDD increases. The current chart doesn't seem to indicate a late mania phase in the market. Today, price behavior seems more like a mid-cycle consolidation.

The realized price is constantly going up, while the price is moving sideways. Variance is shifting towards negative. Historically, this structure is somewhat similar to mid-2016 and late 2020.

A significant divergence has formed between S2F and price. This divergence will eventually result in the price moving upwards and approaching the pattern. In this case, a delayed retail FOMO will be observed. Until then, the price will continue its sideways negative movement, and it will be accepted that S2F is not working as well as in previous cycles. #Bitcoin may have now transformed into a more mature macro asset. This is also possible. Especially after the ETF era, the market structure changed. $BTC