$BTC
Observing the current BTC structure objectively, we can clearly see that momentum/structure has shifted more bearish/corrective rather than bullish.
However, just because it’s more corrective/bearish doesn’t mean there won’t be any LTF bounces.
We broke below 79K after the Clarity Act news marked a local top (as expected lol, this happens every time with “priced in” news). On the other hand, we wicked up to 78K forming another lower high, then pushed down to 74K, taking liquidity, something I had mentioned could be tested over the past 1–2 weeks.
Now that we’ve swept the lows, I would be watching for LTF acceptance back above this area, as it could validate scalp longs into a bearish retest. That retest could extend up toward 78K, the current weekly open, and if that level is flipped, the CME gap sits near 79K.
Overall, based on the current structure, you’d still be looking for a lower high. For structure to flip bullish again, BTC would need to reclaim levels above 80K.
On the daily, we look bearish; on the weekly, we are testing a previous HTF support. It’s not the time to be “mega bearish”, instead, observe LTF structure to see whether we form another lower high or begin reclaiming bullish structure again.
If another lower high forms, we should expect a move toward lower levels, potentially sub-70K. However, if the weekly S/R level is held (74-76K), BTC could structurally continue higher, though that outcome would currently not make much sense to me.