$BTC | Hash Ribbons is the cleanest miner-capitulation signal in the cycle-analysis literature. Charles Edwards published the formula in 2019. The mechanic: BTC 30-day hashrate moving average crossing above the 60-day hashrate moving average after a sustained period below it = miner capitulation has ended + cycle bottom forming.
Why the signal works. When BTC price falls below miner-operating-cost-breakeven, marginal miners switch off rigs. Hashrate drops. The 30-DMA falls below the 60-DMA. Once weak miners have washed out, the surviving miners have higher per-coin profitability + lower aggregate selling pressure. The 30-DMA crossing back above the 60-DMA marks the structural inflection.
Historical fires aligned with cycle bottoms:
- 2018-12: Hash Ribbons BUY signal within 6 weeks of cycle bottom
- 2020-04: BUY signal (post-COVID crash, mid-cycle but bottom-like)
- 2022-11: BUY signal within 5 weeks of FTX-collapse cycle bottom
Honest limitation: the signal can fire during mid-cycle drawdowns that look like capitulations but turn out to be deeper continuation pullbacks. Confluence with other signals matters. Hash Ribbons alone is not the cycle bottom call.
For Australian residents holding BTC for the long-horizon: Hash Ribbons BUY signal is a "start sizing in incremental tranches" trigger, not a "buy everything tomorrow" trigger. The 12-month CGT-discount-eligibility clock starts at the buy date. Front-loading entries during Hash Ribbons confluence positions the eligibility crossing to coincide with the expected mid-cycle markup window, not the cycle bottom.
https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-hash-ribbons/