The $BTC crash that I predicted back in October after calling the day of the top is likely resuming with the next leg down of the already starting.
Bitcoin is behaving in a similar manner this bear market as it did in the last one. BTC topped with the 4 yr cycle and got a 52% crash to kick off the bear market as I correctly predicted would happen, when the experts and Moonboys were calling for 200k to 250k by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin dropped from 126k to 60k, crashing 52% just as it did the last bear market in 2021-2022. BTC then rallied up to the 200 day MA (black line) forming a Bear Flag just as it did the last bear market.
Right after it reversed off the 200 day MA in 2022, the bottom fell out of BTC and it crash 68% down to 15k. If BTC continues the same pattern as the last bear market, it should get a massive crash over the summer. If it crashes 68% as it did in the last bear market after it got rejection at the 200 day MA, that would take Bitcoin down to approximately 25k.
Also notice that when BTC railed up to the 200 day MA and got rejection in the last bear market, my oscillator rose to the centerline and then rolled over. That is exactly what it is doing right now with our currently rejection off the 200 day MA.
The last bear market rally in 2022 was 46% and got rejection at the 200 day MA and 50% fib retracement. This bear market rally only rallied approximately 38% and only retraced to the 38.2% fib. So this bear market may have just more feeble than the on in 2022. Nevertheless, the oscillator rollover is suggesting the bear market rally is over and that BTC is starting the next leg down of the crash. The Moonboys and Michael Saylor are about to go into freakout mode.
Keep in mind that the oscillator remained in the negative region below the centerline until a bullish divergence formed to mark the BTC bottom. The oscillator remained in the negative region below the centerline until the bear market officially ended. Additionally, the 50 day MA (green line) remained below the 200 day MA (black line), until a bottom formed and the bear market ended.
As I warned after calling the Bitcoin top October 6, 2025, that BTC would crash to kick off the bear market, rally in a bear market, then resume the bear market and end up dropping approximately 80% to 90% as it has done in past bear markets. That means Bitcoin won't bottom until it reaches 12k to 25k, which again is a 80% to 90% crash from the October top. These have been my target levels to end the bear market.
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