#USGDPUpdate *🔍 US GDP Update*

- *Q3 2025 Growth*: *4.3%* (highest in 2 years), beating forecasts of 3.3%.

- Driven by:

- *Consumer spending*: +3.5% (services, healthcare, travel).

- *Exports*: +8.8%.

- *Government spending*: +2.2%.

- Offset by:

- *Private investment*: -0.3% (housing, non-residential buildings).

- *Imports*: -4.7% ¹ ² ³.

- *Q4 Forecast*: *3%* (GDPNow model).

- *Risks*:

- *Government shutdown* impact: ~0.1-0.2% GDP loss per week (S&P).

- *Inflation*: PCE at *2.9%* (above Fed’s 2% target).

- *Unemployment*: *4.6%* (highest since 2021).

- *Outlook 2026*: Cautious *3% growth*, pending tariff, tax, and labor trends.

- *AI’s Role*: Drives *90% of 2025 growth*, raising recession risks if investment slows ⁴ ¹ ⁵.

*Next Update*: Jan 22, 2026 (BEA final Q3 estimate).

_Not financial advice. Source: ¹ ³ ²._

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