The battle inside perp DEX trading has been intense this year. Hyperliquid has been the clear leader for a long time but new platforms have tried to pull users away with rewards and fresh ideas. This pressure slowed Hyperliquid growth in the second half of the year and pushed many traders to test other options. As a result trading activity cooled and revenue dropped which also reduced the pace of token buybacks. This shift gave sellers more confidence and HYPE price struggled for weeks.
Lighter entered this race with strong early interest. Many traders moved there during the farming phase because free rewards always attract volume. That phase is now ending and the effect is showing clearly. Perp volume on Lighter has fallen fast as short term users exit after collecting their tokens. This change matters because it shows how much of the early activity was incentive driven rather than sticky long term use.
A well known research analyst believes this trend favors Hyperliquid again. In his view Lighter volume is falling because the main reason traders were there is gone. He expects many of those traders to return to Hyperliquid where liquidity is deeper and the product is already proven. He also believes fears around long term fee pressure on HYPE are overblown and not a real issue in the near future.
Hyperliquid numbers tell a mixed story. In the second half of the year total perp volume dropped sharply compared to earlier highs. Weekly revenue also fell from strong levels in the third quarter to much lower levels in December. This directly affected buybacks which are an important support for HYPE. At the same time monthly token unlocks continued which added supply. Bears used this setup to push price lower.
Still the story may be shifting. If former Lighter farmers move back trading volume and revenue could recover. That would improve buybacks and help sentiment around HYPE. Price action already shows early signs of stability. HYPE is holding its ground and has posted a small bounce in recent sessions. A clean move above recent highs would signal that buyers are gaining control again.
Lighter token price tells a different story. After the token launch a large share of supply was given to early users. This created immediate selling pressure. The price has fallen steadily since listing with sharp drops over the past week and even more in the last day. This is a common pattern after airdrops as many users prefer to lock in gains instead of holding long term.
In simple terms Lighter hype cooled once rewards ended. Hyperliquid slowed earlier but now looks steadier. The next phase depends on whether real traders return to where they feel most comfortable trading every day. If volume flows back HYPE could regain strength. If not the market may stay quiet for a while. For now HYPE looks stable while LIT works through its post airdrop sell off.
