U.S. manufacturing activity weakened further in the latest data, adding to concerns about slowing economic momentum and complicating the near-term outlook for risk assets, including crypto.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, marking a 14-month low, according to data released Monday. The reading came in below market expectations of 48.4 and remained firmly under the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
Manufacturing contraction deepens
The latest print extends a downtrend in U.S. manufacturing activity, signaling continued contraction across the sector. PMI readings below 50 indicate shrinking output, weakening demand, and pressure on industrial activity — conditions typically associated with slowing economic growth.
The data suggests that the U.S. economy continues to face headwinds, particularly in interest-rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors, even as broader financial markets attempt to stabilize.
Implications for risk assets and crypto
For risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies, the PMI data reinforces a cautious macro backdrop.
Historically, sustained bullish momentum in risk assets tends to align with ISM readings above 50, signaling expanding economic activity and improving demand conditions. With manufacturing still in contraction territory, traders remain wary of extrapolating short-term rallies into durable uptrends.
In crypto markets, macro-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin often respond to PMI data through its impact on:
Liquidity expectations
Federal Reserve policy outlook
Broader risk sentiment
While weaker PMI readings can eventually support expectations for monetary easing, they also highlight near-term economic fragility, which can limit upside appetite until clearer growth stabilization emerges.
