Bitcoin Price Prediction: Early 2026 Mein $100K BTC Ke Chances Kam Kyun Ho Gaye?
Bitcoin market ka mood kaafi thanda hota ja raha hai. Prediction markets ke data ke mutabiq, early 2026 mein Bitcoin ka $100,000 dobara cross karna ab kaafi mushkil lag raha hai. October crash ke baad se investors aur traders zyada cautious ho chuke hain, aur risk lene ka jazba pehle jaisa nahi raha.
Major prediction platforms jaise Polymarket aur Kalshi par traders ne apni expectations clear kar di hain. Data dikhata hai ke February 2026 tak Bitcoin ke $100K hit karne ke chances 10% se bhi kam hain. Polymarket par yeh probability lagbhag 6% hai jabke Kalshi par around 7%.
January 14 ko Bitcoin ne 2026 ka ab tak ka highest level $97,900 touch kiya tha, lekin uske baad selling pressure wapas aa gaya. Last time Bitcoin November 13 ko $100,000 se upar trade hua tha, uske baad strong correction ne market sentiment ko reset kar diya.
History dekhi jaye to pehle bhi Bitcoin ne 25–26% ke drawdowns ke baad recovery ki hai, aur kuch cases mein 90 din ke andar six figures wapas aaye. Lekin is dafa prediction market traders itne optimistic nahi hain. Zyada traders ka maanna hai ke Bitcoin agar $100K wapas gaya bhi, to mid ya late 2026 mein hi possible hai.
Prediction markets yeh bhi signal de rahe hain ke pehle downside dekhne ko mil sakti hai:
65% chance ke Bitcoin $80,000 tak gir sakta hai
54% odds $70,000 ka bottom
50% odds $65,000
42% chance ke $60,000 tak bhi dip aaye
Is cautious approach ki wajah macro factors hain, jaise ke tight financial conditions, high bond yields, aur geopolitical risks. Is sab ke bawajood, long-term players jaise Strategy (MicroStrategy) apni Bitcoin holding par confident hain. Market data ke mutabiq, 75% chance hai ke Bitcoin 2026 mein Strategy ke average cost basis (~$75,979) se neeche trade kare, lekin sirf 26% odds hain ke Strategy apna Bitcoin sell karegi.
Summary yeh hai ke long-term belief zinda hai, lekin short-term excitement almost khatam ho chuki hai.
Bearish 📉
