Recently, across social media platforms, the dominant narrative has been that the market is on the verge of another sharp downturn. Cautious, and even outright bearish, sentiment is clearly prevailing.
However, when looking at market capitalization data—particularly altcoin market cap (TOTAL3)—it becomes evident that the market has largely reverted to levels seen roughly one year ago. This suggests that a significant portion of the risk has already been priced in, and the market is undergoing a “reset” phase rather than entering a new systemic collapse.
From a valuation perspective, many altcoins have corrected beyond what fundamentals would justify and are now trading in zones with a relatively attractive risk-to-reward (R/R) profile for medium-term positioning, despite continued short-term volatility.
Notably, several large funds and venture capital players have begun deploying capital or accumulating on a trial basis around key levels such as BTC ~86k and ETH ~2.8k, indicating confidence that the medium-term uptrend of this cycle has not yet ended.From a market structure standpoint, cycle leaders continue to demonstrate relative strength. Hyperliquid, for example, has broken out of its downtrend and posted a strong recovery within a short period, suggesting that smart money is rotating into quality rather than exiting the market altogether.
In the meme segment, the return of Alon, co-founder of Pump.fun, has reignited expectations of a renewed meme wave on the Solana ecosystem, with several tokens beginning to form constructive technical structures.
In reality, market makers and major project teams can only push prices higher when they successfully time the liquidity cycle. Without fresh liquidity, any rally is inherently fragile and unsustainable.
When the majority of the market converges on a bearish consensus, the key question is not whether the crowd is right or wrong, but how much of that pessimism has already been reflected in price.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment
