$BTC
Bitcoin at the Brink: Technical Bounce or the Start of a Macro Winter? ❄️
Bitcoin ($BTC) is fighting for its life today, February 3, 2026, currently trading around $78,450. After a brutal 13% weekly drop that saw it pierce the critical $80k support, the "King of Crypto" is attempting a timid recovery. While the price is up roughly 4% from yesterday's intraday low of $74,500, analysts are warning that this is likely a "dead cat bounce" driven by short-covering rather than a genuine shift in sentiment.
Technical Breakdown
The Resistance Wall: Bulls are facing a "brick wall" at $79,200 - $80,000. Reclaiming $80k is psychological priority #1; otherwise, the bearish bias remains firmly in control.
Support Floors: The immediate safety net is $77,000. If this fails, the market is eyeing a deeper correction toward the $72,000 - $68,000 zone, levels not seen since the 2024 consolidation.
Sentiment Crisis: The Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to 17 (Extreme Fear). Mainstream conviction is wavering as spot ETFs continue to see massive outflows (over $1.3B in just two sessions).
Macro Headwinds
The "Dollar Strength" Trap: A hawkish Fed and a surging U.S. Dollar have drained liquidity from high-risk assets.
On-Chain Warning: Approximately 44% of the circulating supply is now held at an unrealized loss. Historically, when "Supply in Loss" crosses 40%, it signals the transition from a correction into a structural bear market.
Is $74,500 the local bottom, or are we heading to $68,000 before March?
Are you "Buying the Fear" or rotating capital into AI-linked stocks?
Can a surprise Fed pivot save the $80k level this week?
📊 Your Play Today:
🚀 Aggressive Bull (Buying the bounce with a tight stop at $76k)
🛡️ Strategic HODL (DCA-ing only if we hit the $72k major support)
👀 Sidelined (Waiting for a daily close above $80k to confirm a trend reversal)