Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has softened his stance on Bitcoin’s much-discussed “supercycle” forecast for 2026. After recent market turbulence, CZ now urges patience over prediction, highlighting the fragility of sentiment even in a bullish macro environment.
Why This Shift Happened
Bitcoin dropped below $75,000, wiping out ~$2.5 billion in leveraged positions.
CZ pointed to FUD on social media, which he believes accelerated panic selling.
Broader macro forces including U.S.–Iran tensions, inflation, and Fed policy uncertainty compounded market stress.
What CZ Originally Predicted
Bitcoin could break the traditional 4-year halving cycle, trending higher for several years.
Thesis was based on:
Crypto-friendly U.S. regulation
Institutional capital inflows
Reduced dependence on supply-driven cycles
The Reality Check
Bitcoin failed to hold key support levels around $82,500 and $75,500.
Price dipped below realized value (~$80,700) — most holders underwater → negative sentiment pressure.
Gold and silver also fell sharply, indicating cross-asset risk-off behavior.
Market & On-Chain Insights
Initial liquidations: ~$850 million → escalated to $2.5 billion over the weekend.
~200,000 trader accounts fully liquidated.
Glassnode data:
Smaller holders: net sellers
Large “mega-whales”: quietly accumulating
Key Takeaways for Traders
Supercycle isn’t dead — timing is just more uncertain.
Macro factors now matter as much as adoption and halvings.
Focus on long-term, buy-and-hold strategy rather than reacting to social media FUD.
Market participants should monitor on-chain metrics and liquidations for real-time risk signals.
Why This Post Matters
CZ’s update is a reminder that even top industry insiders adjust predictions in response to market volatility. Traders and investors should balance optimism with caution, keeping both technical and macro factors in mind.