Bitcoin has reached a point of 32.6 on RSI. This happened only 5 times in modern history:
- Nov 2018: $BTC dumped to $3,100, then pumped to $13,000 - Mar 2020: dumped to $3,800, then pumped to $63,000 - June 2022: dumped to $17,500, then pumped to $25,000 - Aug 2022: dumped to $17,500, then pumped to $23,000 - Nov 2022: dumped to $15,000, then pumped to $125,000
And.. now — February 2026. What conclusions can we draw from this? The crypto market is already extremely oversold, taking into account Bitcoin dumped only 40% from ATH. Previous times it required at least 70% dump from the top. The market is maturing.
🍋 The bounce is coming, not sure it will happen from current points though. We may dive deeper at first , but may pump straight from here as well. So, opening short position right here is a bad idea — wait for the trigger. The overall trend remains bearish.$BTC
There are two main support levels: $80,500 and $71,000 - $74,000 (zone).
I won't lie — crypto is weak as hell. Crypto exchanges are fighting each other, Trump is doing his best to destabilize the geopolitical situation, many 4-year-cycle believers sell convinced Bitcoin is entering a 'bear cycle'.
On top of that, October 10, 2025, had a major negative impact on the industry as well. It didn't just wipe out a ton of liquidity — it also scared away many potential investors, both retail and institutional.
🥺 Not the best time to be locally bullish on Bitcoin and crypto.
Yet, I am not ready to give up on bullish trend as long as 1W candle closes above the $71,000 support level. If we zoom out and look at the a global Bitcoin chart, a retest of this level followed by a strong rebound is still very much on the table.
I WILL BUY (SPOT) BITCOIN IN TWO CASES:
1️⃣ Positive reaction around $80,000 — any deviation below this level followed by a strong reclaim above it, and I’m buying.
2️⃣ Any touch of the $71,000 support — this would be an excellent zone for building a long-term position. We must see at least a bounce from here, as this remains the strongest support level for now.
My recent post (Bitcoin Bull Take) is still valid and I rate the probability of BTC NEW ATH in 2026 at 50%+. Remember — dumps are always long and boring — pumps can be fast and violent (recent pump shows a perfect example). $PUMP $HYPE
$BTC 🐝 BTC UPDATE Fun fact, says a lot about current state of the market: - $BTC price on my previous BTC UPDATE (4 days ago): $89,213 - $BTC price on this BTC UPDATE: $89,288
Overall, I am still locally bullish here. There was a bearish pennant, it worked out but the price quickly returned back to the resistance and now compressing one.
Breakout of the $89,500 — bullish.
Going LONG in case of this breakout makes sense. Main three targets and two additional ones are on the chart.
$BTC 🧐 Historically, once Gold peaks in its growth cycle, Bitcoin starts to rally too. It happened:
- Back in 2012 when Bitcoin grew up for 12,000% over 2 years
- Back in 2016 when Bitcoin grew up for 3,100% over 2 years
- Back in 2020 when Bitcoin grew up for 550% over 2 years
- And now….
🙌 There will definitely be some lag — the growth won’t start instantly the moment Gold stops pumping. But here’s the key thing to keep in mind: this time, you won’t have to wait for the next Bitcoin halving to see a massive breakout above ATH in crypto.
Most likely I will be wrong on this one, but this is how I see the chart right now. Too many people in short, sentiment is extremely bearish. We don't fall when everyone expect it.
This is only one argument though. Profile volumes show huge purchases too.
Don't open high leveraged positions guys, x5 - x7 is maximum. The next week will do its best to rug all of us, no matter who you are, bear or bull.
Back to the chart: LONG from $87,600 is okey, LONG from $91,000 breakout also good. But again, current market is very difficult to preict. Safest option - stay with no position.$BTC
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