Coinstages

As the final days of 2025 approach, XRP is facing a critical structural challenge that could end its two-year streak of positive annual returns. Following a stellar 2023 (up 81%) and a massive 2024 (up 238%), the asset is currently struggling to maintain its footing, trading approximately 11% lower than its January opening price. With on-chain data revealing aggressive "capitulation selling" at a loss and network activity hitting monthly lows, XRP must stage a dramatic $2.10 recovery in less than a week to avoid closing the year in the red and resetting its long-term momentum.
I. Capitulation Selling and the Loss of Conviction
The current downturn for XRP is defined by a shift in investor behavior that differs significantly from prior market cycles:
Selling at a Loss: Realized profit and loss data shows that Q4 was marked by unusually aggressive selling at negative margins. Instead of "HODLing" through the drawdown, a significant portion of the investor base has chosen to crystallize losses, signaling a sharp deterioration in near-term confidence.Network Apathy: Participation on the XRP Ledger has slumped, with active transacting addresses hitting a monthly low of roughly 34,005. This decline in on-chain utility reflects a lack of both retail and institutional engagement, removing the fundamental demand needed to spark a year-end bounce.
II. The $2.10 Target: The Line for Annual Green
XRP’s technical and psychological map for the final days of December is narrow and unforgiving:
Reclaiming Neutrality: To wipe out its year-to-date losses and close 2025 "flat," XRP must reach $2.10. This represents a substantial climb from its current price of $1.85.Intermediate Hurdles: The path to $2.10 requires bulls to first defend the $1.85 support and then flip $1.94 into a launching pad. A break above $2.00 would be the final psychological hurdle before attacking the $2.10 annual target.Downside Risk: If XRP loses the $1.85 floor, the annual loss narrative will be confirmed. A breakdown could see the price slide toward $1.70, ending the year on a decidedly bearish note and casting a shadow over early 2026.
III. Conclusion: A Cycle of Maturation or Decline?
The short-term outlook for XRP is a high-stakes race against the calendar. The potential end of a two-year winning streak highlights how even historically strong assets can succumb to shifting macro conditions and investor fatigue. While the current low network activity and aggressive selling at a loss suggest a market in retreat, contrarians might argue that such extreme negative sentiment often precedes a bottom. Whether XRP can pull off a "Christmas Miracle" and reclaim $2.10 will likely depend on whether the remaining "strong hands" can withstand any final year-end sell-offs.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

As the final week of 2025 unfolds, Ethereum (ETH) is quietly constructing a textbook reversal pattern that could catalyze a massive 40% surge into the new year. While its recent price action has appeared flat, a look beneath the hood reveals a "rare alignment" of technical and on-chain factors. With a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern nearing completion and a staggering 95% collapse in long-term holder selling, Ethereum is primed for a supply-shock-driven rally toward $4,400, provided it can overcome one final "supply wall" in the low $3,000s.
I. The Inverse Head-And-Shoulders: Target $4,400
Ethereum’s daily chart has formed a clean inverse head-and-shoulders structure, a powerful technical signal often marking the end of a corrective phase:
The Neckline: The key level to watch is the $3,400 zone. This "flattish" neckline is traditionally a magnet for follow-through momentum. A decisive close above this level would mathematically project a measured move toward $4,400.Path to the Breakout: Before attacking the $3,400 neckline, bulls must first clear the "clearance zone" between $3,150 and $3,173. This area represents a massive cost-basis cluster where nearly 2.94 million ETH were last acquired, serving as the strongest immediate resistance wall.
II. On-Chain Supply Exhaustion: 95% Reduction in Selling
The most compelling support for the technical breakout comes from the exhaustion of on-chain selling pressure:
HODLer Net Position Change: This metric has shifted dramatically in less than a month. On November 26, long-term holders were distributing approximately 1.1 million ETH per day. By December 23, that figure plummeted to just 54,427 ETH.Turning Point Signal: This 95% reduction in selling suggests that "strong hands" are no longer willing to feed supply into the current price range. Historically, such a collapse in distribution near a major technical bottom creates the perfect conditions for a violent upward move once new demand enters.
III. Conclusion and Critical Year-End Levels
The short-term outlook for Ethereum is one of high-conviction recovery, bolstered by a significant supply-side vacuum. However, the bullish thesis remains contingent on maintaining its structural integrity:
Bullish Scenarios: Clearing the $3,173 supply wall would open a path to the $3,400 neckline. A break above this level targets the $4,400 goal, with intermediate resistance only appearing at $4,170.Risk Factors: The bullish setup is threatened if Ethereum fails to hold its support levels. A drop below $2,800 would weaken the structure, while losing $2,620 would fully invalidate the reversal pattern, signaling that sellers have regained control.Final Take: Ethereum is currently a "supply-exhausted" asset waiting for a technical spark. If the $3,150–$3,173 resistance is cleared with conviction, the path to $4,400 becomes the path of least resistance.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Silver has emerged as the clear victor of 2025’s "hard asset" race, finishing the year with a staggering 120% gain that decisively outpaced both gold (up 60%) and Bitcoin (which ended slightly lower after a volatile run). Unlike Bitcoin, which struggled to maintain safe-haven flows during late-year risk-off moves, silver’s rally was anchored in a rare convergence of industrial necessity and monetary hedging. As we enter 2026, analysts suggest that silver is uniquely positioned to repeat its outperformance, driven by a structural supply deficit and its indispensable role in global electrification and defense.
I. Beyond Speculation: The Industrial Engine
While gold and Bitcoin are primarily viewed as stores of value, silver’s 2025 performance was driven by its massive industrial footprint:
The Energy Transition: Solar power remains the single largest source of new demand, with silver serving as a critical component in photovoltaic cells.Electric Vehicle (EV) Expansion: Modern EVs use 25 to 50 grams of silver per vehicle—roughly 70% more than traditional internal-combustion cars. Additionally, high-power fast-charging infrastructure requires kilograms of silver, creating a structural demand base that gold and Bitcoin do not capture.New Battery Technology: Looking toward 2026–2027, Samsung's "silver-carbon" solid-state batteries could require up to 1 kg of silver per EV, potentially triggering a historic supply shock in the precious metals market.
II. National Security and Strategic Classification
A less visible but increasingly critical driver for silver is its role in modern military technology:
Non-Recyclable Demand: Silver is essential for guidance electronics, radar, and drones. Crucially, silver used in munitions is destroyed upon use, making defense-related demand entirely non-recyclable.Strategic Material Status: Several governments moved to classify silver as a strategic material in 2025, reflecting its necessity for national security. This has led to increased state-level stockpiling, further tightening an already constrained supply market.
III. Conclusion: Why 2026 Belongs to Silver
The overarching outlook for 2026 is one of persistent supply deficits and expanding industrial utility. Silver enters the new year with structural tailwinds that neither gold nor Bitcoin can replicate:
The 5th Consecutive Deficit: Global silver markets recorded their fifth straight annual deficit in 2025, and with new mining projects facing years of lead time, supply remains inelastic.Monetary Hedge Meets Industrial Floor: If the Federal Reserve continues its easing cycle and real yields stay low, silver will benefit from the same "safe-haven" bid as gold. However, its industrial floor provides a safety net that pure speculative assets like Bitcoin lack.Final Take: Silver has "sliced above" the historic $50 resistance and is currently trading near $71. With upside targets at $87 and potentially $200+ in the long term, the white metal is arguably the most efficient way to play the intersection of monetary protection, the energy transition, and global defense spending in 2026.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and supply-demand metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, commodity, or cryptocurrency. Precious metals and digital assets are subject to high volatility and macro-economic shifts. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.

XRP is currently navigating a period of intense social apathy and cooling momentum, with positive sentiment crashing to a three-month low. While this "sentiment problem" often appears bearish to retail observers, on-chain data and historical patterns suggest it may actually be the exact solution bulls have been waiting for. By flushing out "weak hands"—evidenced by a massive 60% drop in short-term holder supply—and seeing a 50% reduction in long-term selling, XRP is forming a classic contrarian setup that has previously triggered rallies of 14% to 17% from similar troughs.
I. The Problem: Positive Sentiment Hits a 3-Month Low
The current gloom surrounding XRP is driven by a measurable collapse in social chatter and the exit of speculative capital:
Sentiment Fatigue: Positive social sentiment has hit its lowest point in three months. However, XRP has a documented history of "inverse performance": in October and November, similar sentiment troughs preceded rapid price advances of 14%, 15%, and 17% within days of the crowd losing interest.Flushing the Retail "Fast Money": Wallet data shows that short-term holders (those holding for less than a week) have slashed their supply share from 2.97% to just 1.18%. This 60% reduction indicates that retail speculators have largely moved on, removing the high-frequency selling pressure that often caps local recoveries.
II. The Solution: Long-Term Conviction Hardens
While retail traders exit, the backbone of the XRP network—the long-term holders—is showing renewed strategic patience:
50% Reduction in Distribution: Earlier this month, long-term holders were selling roughly 216 million XRP per day. That selling pressure has plummeted to approximately 103 million XRP per day. This 50% drop in distribution suggests that experienced holders are no longer willing to feed supply into a market defined by apathy.Quiet Accumulation: Historically, when long-term holders slow their selling during a period of negative social sentiment, it creates a supply-demand vacuum. Once a small spark of new demand enters the market, the lack of overhead supply allows for an outsized price reaction.
III. Conclusion and Critical Year-End Levels
The short-term outlook for XRP is a high-conviction bet on a contrarian reversal. The "sentiment problem" has effectively cleared the path by removing speculative overhead, but the solution requires the defense of critical technical levels.
Bullish Targets: The immediate goal for bulls is to reclaim $2.03. A successful break here would confirm the sentiment-driven bounce and open a path toward $2.09 and $2.17.Support Anchor: The entire bullish thesis rests on maintaining the $1.77 support level. A breakdown below this floor would indicate that long-term holders have joined the exit, invalidating the current recovery setup.Final Take: XRP does its best work when the market stops expecting it to perform. With the 60% exit of short-term traders and a halving of long-term sell pressure, the "problem" of bad sentiment is arguably the best "solution" for a 15% rally into early 2026.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Cardano (ADA) is flashing one of the most reliable technical reversal setups in its history, supported by a significant injection of "smart money" capital. Despite a lackluster monthly performance, ADA has formed a classic bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart a structure that previously catalyzed a 30% rally in late November. This technical signal is being confirmed by Cardano’s second-largest whale cohort, which has aggressively accumulated roughly 100 million ADA (valued at $36 million) as selling pressure reached exhaustion.
I. Bullish RSI Divergence: The Momentum Shift
The primary catalyst for the current optimism is a technical disconnect between price action and momentum:
Momentum vs. Price: Between November 21 and December 18, ADA printed lower lows in price while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) produced higher lows. This divergence indicates that while the price was falling, the downward momentum was actually weakening, a pattern that often precedes a major trend reversal.Historical Precedent: A near-identical setup occurred earlier this cycle; once the divergence was confirmed, ADA rallied 30% within just eight days. Traders are now looking for a repeat of this performance as the year draws to a close.
II. Whale Confirmation: $36 Million in Fresh Demand
On-chain metrics provide the fundamental backing needed to validate the technical setup:
Accumulation Surge: Since December 20, wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA have increased their collective balance from 3.74 billion to 3.84 billion ADA. This $36 million purchase during a period of price weakness suggests that large holders are front-running a potential recovery.Spent Coins Age Band: This accumulation perfectly aligns with a sharp drop in the "Spent Coins Age Band" metric. As long-term coin movement (selling) slowed down, whales stepped in to absorb the remaining supply, strengthening the floor near recent lows.
III. Conclusion and Critical Price Targets
The short-term outlook for Cardano is decidedly bullish, provided the asset can clear its immediate structural hurdles.
Reversal Targets: ADA is currently eyeing the $0.47 level. A clean break above this resistance would confirm the RSI divergence and open the path toward the psychological $0.50 milestone, with further upside possible toward $0.55.Support Invalidation: The bullish thesis remains intact as long as ADA holds above $0.34. A breakdown below this level would signal that selling pressure has returned, likely causing whales to pause their accumulation and invalidating the current reversal setup.Final Take: With $36 million in fresh whale backing and a proven technical reversal pattern in play, Cardano is well-positioned to be a top performer in the final week of 2025.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

As 2025 draws to a close, the financial landscape is being redefined by a historic surge in precious metals, with gold shattering all-time highs while Bitcoin remains conspicuously absent from the year-end rally. Quantitative firm 10x Research has issued a high-conviction buy signal for gold, identifying a setup with a 90% historical hit rate that targets a move to $4,830 within the next three months. Driven by a combination of Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions, gold is currently outshining digital assets as the preferred safe haven this holiday season.
I. A New Era for the "Yellow Metal"
Gold’s ascent to a record $4,459.60 per ounce represents a staggering 67% year-to-date gain, its strongest performance since 1979:
Macro Tailwinds: The rally is fueled by expectations of two Fed rate cuts in 2026 and a weakening US Dollar. Geopolitical flashpoints—including US-Venezuela oil blockades and Ukraine’s strikes on Russian shadow fleets—have further intensified the flight to safety.Institutional Demand: Unlike previous cycles, this rally is supported by structural forces. Central banks, corporate treasuries, and even stablecoin issuers like Tether are increasingly using gold as a reserve asset, creating a more resilient and diverse capital base.Precious Metal Complex: Silver, Platinum, and Palladium are also joining the surge. Platinum has broken above $2,000 for the first time since 2008, gaining roughly 124% this year due to supply dislocations and robust Chinese demand.
II. The 10x Research Buy Signal: 90% Confidence
10x Research’s quantitative model has flagged gold with its highest reading in years:
The Setup: The model identifies a price range pattern that has historically delivered a median return of +7.8% over the following three months. Of the last ten occurrences, nine resulted in positive returns.Trading Parameters: Based on current prices near $4,480, the firm sets a target of $4,830 with a relatively tight stop-loss at $4,393 (representing just 2% downside risk).Portfolio Allocation: Reflecting elevated confidence, the firm suggests a substantial allocation—up to 51.3% of a portfolio—to this trade, emphasizing that the rally lacks speculative excess and is built on firm macro foundations.
III. Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Missing "Santa Rally"
The divergence between traditional and digital safe havens is a defining narrative for late 2025. While gold and silver celebrate new highs, Bitcoin remains stagnant at roughly $88,500, down 21% from its September peak. The lack of holiday liquidity has left the crypto market without a clear directional bias, allowing gold to capture the global "safe-haven bid." If 10x Research's projections hold, the first quarter of 2026 will see gold continue its record-breaking climb toward $4,830, leaving Bitcoin bulls to wait for fresh catalysts in the new year.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary and quantitative research. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, commodity, or cryptocurrency. Precious metals and cryptocurrencies are subject to high volatility and macro-economic shifts. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.

Pi Coin is currently locked in a tug-of-war with a single technical level that has dominated its price action since October. While the surface-level price appears stagnant, underneath the hood, capital flows have turned positive and "smart money" is quietly absorbing dips. However, analysts warn that this hidden accumulation will remain trapped until the asset can achieve a clean daily close above $0.21, a level that has historically acted as both a launchpad for 40% gains and a trigger for double-digit corrections.
I. Positive Capital Flows: The Hidden Accumulation
Despite the flat price action, two key on-chain indicators suggest that the tide is turning in favor of the bulls:
CMF Breakout: The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has crossed above the zero line and broken a long-standing descending trendline. This shift signals that "big money" is returning to the asset. Historically, the last time CMF failed at this trendline, Pi Coin suffered a 32% correction, making its current hold above the line a vital sign of strength.MFI Divergence: Between December 6 and December 19, the price of Pi Coin trended lower, but the Money Flow Index (MFI) rose. This bullish divergence indicates that volume-weighted buying increased even as sellers tried to push prices down, suggesting that buyers are quietly absorbing the available supply during pullbacks.
II. The $0.21 Obsession: Why It Matters
The $0.21 zone has become the primary technical anchor for Pi Coin traders, representing a massive shift in market psychology:
Historic Volatility: A break above $0.21 in late October catalyzed a 42% rally, while losing that same level on December 11 led to an immediate 11% slide. The market’s "obsession" with this price point makes it the most critical resistance zone to watch for the remainder of 2025.Upside Potential: If Pi Coin can reclaim and sustain a position above $0.21, the technical path opens toward $0.24 (the 0.618 Fibonacci level). Reaching this target would represent an upside of roughly 21% from current levels.Downside Risk: Conversely, failure to clear $0.21 with a daily close leaves the asset vulnerable. If money flows weaken, the price could easily slip back toward $0.19 or even $0.15 in a bearish year-end scenario.
III. Conclusion and Short-Term Outlook
The short-term outlook for Pi Coin is one of high-conviction accumulation facing a stubborn structural wall. The positive CMF and MFI divergence provide a strong fundamental base, but the price remains "orbiting" the $0.21 level without a clear exit. For a true year-end rally to materialize, bulls must decisively flip $0.21 into support. Until then, investors should expect continued sideways trading as the market quietly positions itself for a potential January breakout.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

As 2025 comes to a close, the altcoin market is mired in a deep "winter" that has seen total capitalization (TOTAL2) plummet by 30% from its yearly peak. However, beneath the surface of retail fear and stagnant prices, a chorus of prominent analysts is signaling that we have reached the final stage of the bear market. By observing historic lows in moving average crossovers, extreme retail apathy, and long-term support levels not seen since the 2020 COVID crisis, these experts suggest that the current phase of maximal pain is actually a generational accumulation window.
I. The 3% Metric: Extreme Undervaluation
The depth of the current altcoin depression is best illustrated by a rare technical milestone on major exchanges:
Moving Average Lows: According to CryptoQuant, only about 3% of altcoins on Binance are currently trading above their 200-day moving average. This level represents a historical floor, signaling that the vast majority of assets are deeply undervalued and oversold.Capital Preservation Mode: Analysts attribute this to a global shift toward defensive sentiment, where investors prioritize holding "safe" assets (like gold or stablecoins) over high-risk altcoins. Historically, when the percentage of coins above the 200-day SMA hits such single-digit lows, a major trend reversal often follows.
II. Retail Apathy: The Ultimate Bottom Signal
A key psychological indicator of a market bottom is not the presence of "selling," but the total absence of attention:
Attention Scarcity: Analysts like CrediBULL Crypto argue that market bottoms are defined by "un-interest." When retail investors stop talking about an asset class and "number go up" hype disappears, it creates a quiet window for institutional "big boys" to accumulate without competition.The Cycle of Attention: Once large players finish loading up and early green candles appear, retail attention—which is currently at multi-year lows—will inevitably return, providing the liquidity needed for the next explosive phase.
III. Technical Support at Crisis Levels
The broader altcoin market capitalization (excluding BTC and ETH) is currently resting on a "must-hold" structural floor:
2017 & 2020 Benchmarks: Altcoin dominance and market cap ratios are currently at levels comparable to the 2017 support zones and the 2020 COVID-19 crash period. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe describes this as a "crucial area to hold," suggesting that solid bounces from these levels are likely to lead to significant year-end or early 2026 recovery attempts.DCA Window: Given these signals, BeInCrypto analysis suggests that a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy started in late December could be highly effective for patient investors.
IV. Conclusion and 2026 Caution
The short-term outlook for altcoins is one of "maximum opportunity hidden in maximum pain." While the technical and psychological signals point to a final-stage bottom, some analysts maintain a note of caution. They warn that a full-blown "altseason" may be delayed into 2026 due to weak venture capital inflows and a fragmented market structure. For now, the narrative is one of a transition from a seller-dominated market to an accumulation-driven one. If the historical supports at the COVID-crisis levels hold, the first quarter of 2026 could see the emergence of a new market cycle.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

As 2025 comes to a close, Ethereum (ETH) is presenting a paradoxical market structure that has many analysts waving a yellow flag. While the network has seen a massive surge in new participants reaching a five-month high in daily wallet creation this retail-driven optimism is not yet reflected in actual network utility. With the NVT ratio hitting a 16-month high, Ethereum is flashing an "overheating" signal, suggesting that the current market valuation is outpacing its fundamental on-chain usage and leaving the price vulnerable to a sharp correction if demand fails to materialize.
I. Retail Optimism: 163,000 New Wallets Daily

Despite Ethereum’s persistent struggle to break the $3,000 ceiling, investor interest in the asset remains incredibly resilient:
Growth Surge: The network is currently averaging roughly 163,000 new addresses per day. This significantly outpaces the previous peak of 124,000 seen in July, signaling that fresh capital is waiting on the sidelines or slowly entering the ecosystem.The New Holder Paradox: While high wallet creation is typically bullish, analysts warn that new addresses alone do not drive price. Without a corresponding increase in transactions, DeFi activity, or gas consumption, this influx represents "speculative potential" rather than "realized utility."
II. The Fundamental Imbalance: 16-Month NVT High

The primary concern for Ethereum’s year-end outlook is the widening gap between its price and its on-chain activity:
Overheating Signal: The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has spiked to its highest point in 16 months. A high NVT ratio indicates that the market cap is growing much faster than the volume of value being transferred on the network.Valuation vs. Usage: This divergence suggests that the current price of $2,986 is being supported by "recovery optimism" rather than actual economic throughput. Historically, when valuation significantly outpaces fundamentals, the asset enters a high-risk zone for a correction.
III. Conclusion and Critical Price Levels
The short-term outlook for Ethereum is one of high-stakes consolidation as it attempts to validate its recent network growth.
The $3,000 Hurdle: Reclaiming $3,000 as firm support remains the most critical task for bulls. A confirmed breakout here would target $3,131 and potentially $3,287, provided transaction volume also begins to rise.Downside Risk: If transaction activity remains stagnant, the "overheated" signal could trigger a retreat. In this scenario, bulls must defend the $2,798 support zone to prevent a deeper collapse that would invalidate the year-end recovery thesis.Final Take: Ethereum is currently a "belief-driven" asset. While the 5-month high in new holders is a strong signal of future demand, the network needs an immediate spark of on-chain utility to cool down its overheated technical indicators.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The "Santa Rally" a traditional Wall Street phenomenon where assets rise during the final days of December has become a focal point for influential analysts within the Chinese-speaking crypto community. Far from dismissing it as Western folklore, prominent opinion leaders (KOLs) on Chinese Crypto Twitter view the year-end price action of 2025 as a vital "litmus test" for market health. For these experts, the rally’s success or failure will establish the psychological foundation and risk-appetite benchmarks for the first quarter of 2026.
I. Beyond Seasonality: A Barometer for Risk Appetite
Phyrex, one of the most cited macro analysts in the Chinese crypto space, argues that the Santa Rally is more than a statistical anomaly; it is a gauge of global liquidity and investor confidence:
The Forward Indicator: Phyrex posits that the 2025 year-end rally serves as a "preview" for Q1 2026. If investors fail to bid up risk assets despite supportive seasonal factors, it suggests deeper structural issues within the market that could lead to a lackluster start to the new year.Structural Tailwinds: The community identifies several drivers for a year-end surge, including the conclusion of "tax-loss harvesting," the influx of year-end bonus capital, and the characteristic thin liquidity of the holiday season, which can amplify even modest buying pressure.The High-Rate Hedge: Conversely, a failed rally would indicate that high-interest rate pressures and macro uncertainty have finally overwhelmed seasonal optimism, clouding the outlook for early 2026.
II. A Proxy for Domestic Limitations
The intense focus on Western market trends like the Santa Rally also highlights the increasingly restrictive environment for crypto within China:
Regulatory Tightening: Earlier this month, seven major Chinese financial industry associations issued a joint warning, marking the most comprehensive regulatory clampdown since the 2021 exchange ban.Expanded Bans: Notably, the statement explicitly prohibited the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA) for the first time, closing off one of the few remaining avenues for domestic blockchain innovation.Market Dependence: With local options severely curtailed, the Chinese crypto community has become even more dependent on observing and reacting to global indicators specifically Wall Street’s seasonal patterns to navigate their own investment strategies.
III. Conclusion and 2026 Outlook
For the Chinese-speaking crypto world, the final trading days of 2025 are about more than just holiday gains; they are a window into the market's "will to rally." If the Santa Rally fails to materialize amidst the current regulatory and macro stress, analysts expect a defensive and uncertain Q1 in 2026. However, a strong year-end performance would signal that the market has absorbed recent shocks and is ready to rebuild the bullish momentum that defined earlier parts of 2025.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary and regional market reports. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to rapid regulatory shifts, particularly in the Chinese-speaking region. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.

As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin is facing a critical challenge from its most influential cohort: long-term holders (LTHs). On-chain data reveals that LTH profits have crashed to a monthly low, triggering defensive selling behavior that has pushed the LTH supply change to a 20-month low. With unrealized gains evaporating, these high-conviction investors are increasingly sensitive to further downside, creating a significant overhead supply wall that Bitcoin must absorb before it can target new highs above the $90,000 mark.
I. Defensive Distribution: Protecting Remaining Gains

The current price stagnation is largely a reflection of a shift in LTH strategy from accumulation to risk reduction:
20-Month Supply Low: The 30-day change in LTH supply has hit levels not seen since April 2024. This suggests that long-term investors—those who typically "HODL" through volatility—are currently offloading tokens to lock in remaining profits or minimize potential losses as the market softens.NUPL Crash: The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for LTHs has dropped to a monthly low. Historically, a declining NUPL among this group triggers a feedback loop of defensive selling. However, analysts note that once this indicator reaches extreme lows, selling often pauses, allowing the price to establish a long-term floor.
II. Price Levels: The $88,210 Line in the Sand

Bitcoin’s technical structure is currently locked in a delicate balance between active buyers and distributive sellers:
Immediate Resistance ($88,210): Bitcoin is trading near $87,900, just below the crucial $88,210 level. Reclaiming this resistance is the first necessary step for a sustainable recovery.The $90k Hurdle: A short-term climb toward $90,308 is possible, but this zone is expected to act as a major cap on gains while LTH selling remains elevated.Invalidation Points: On the downside, the $86,247 support has recently been tested and held. A failure to maintain this level would likely expose Bitcoin to deeper corrections toward the mid-80s, further intensifying LTH profit-taking.
III. Conclusion and Short-Term Outlook
The short-term outlook for Bitcoin is one of fragile consolidation. The market is currently being weighed down by a significant 20-month low in LTH supply growth, signaling that "smart money" is in a defensive posture. For a true bullish trend to emerge, LTH distribution must slow down and be met by a fresh wave of institutional or retail demand. Traders should watch the $88,210 level closely; a confirmed daily close above it would signal that the market is starting to absorb the excess LTH supply, clearing the path for a retest of the $92,933 zone and invalidating the current bearish narrative.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Following a prolonged period of bearish dominance that saw Pi Coin slip below the critical $0.200 mark, technical and on-chain indicators have finally signaled a pivotal shift in market sentiment. With the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) printing its first bullish crossover in 20 days and capital flows flipping positive, the stage is set for a potential recovery. However, analysts emphasize that the true "key" to this reversal lies in reclaiming the $0.213 Fibonacci retracement level, a technical hurdle that will decide whether Pi Coin enters 2026 on a bullish footing or continues its sideways grind.
I. Momentum Shifts: Bulls Reclaim the Narrative

The recent stabilization of Pi Coin is backed by two primary technical developments that suggest a floor has been established:
MACD Bullish Crossover: For the first time in nearly three weeks, the MACD line has crossed above the signal line. This shift indicates that the aggressive selling momentum that defined early December has finally exhausted, allowing buyers to regain control of the near-term price direction.CMF Flips Positive: The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which monitors capital entering and exiting the market, has moved above the zero line. This confirms that outflows have officially transitioned into net inflows over the past 24 hours, highlighting a growing conviction among holders to accumulate at current prices.
II. The Fibonacci Test: $0.213 as the Decider

Despite the improving sentiment, Pi Coin faces a specific structural barrier that acts as the "line in the sand" for a confirmed recovery:
The 23.6% Fibonacci Level: Pi is currently trading near $0.207, positioned just below the $0.213 resistance. This level aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, increasing its technical significance. Reclaiming $0.213 as support is essential to validate the recovery structure.Bullish Target ($0.224): A successful breakout above $0.213 would provide the continuation signal needed to target $0.224. Sustained buying pressure at this stage would likely invalidate the long-standing bearish thesis.Downside Risk: If bulls fail to clear the $0.213 hurdle, the asset remains vulnerable. A breakdown below $0.207 would likely lead to a retest of support at $0.199 and potentially $0.188, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend.
III. Conclusion and Short-Term Outlook
The short-term outlook for Pi Coin is cautiously bullish, as the asset attempts to leverage a rare alignment of positive momentum and capital inflows. The recovery is currently "in progress," but it lacks final confirmation. Traders should focus almost exclusively on the $0.213 level; a daily close above it would likely catalyze a broader relief rally. Conversely, if resistance holds, the current bounce may be viewed as a "dead cat bounce," requiring further consolidation before a true bottom can be called.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

As 2025 draws to a close, a polarizing debate has emerged within the crypto community regarding the performance of major altcoins, with XRP identified as a primary contributor to portfolio erosion. Crypto commentator Leshka recently labeled XRP as one of the assets that "destroyed investors' portfolios" this year, citing a 42% decline from its local peak. While the headline figures suggest a severe contraction, a deeper analysis of 2025’s price cycles reveals a more nuanced reality where the timing of entry specifically around the "Crypto President" inauguration rally determined whether investors faced significant losses or substantial gains.
I. The 42% Decline: Contextualizing the Sell-Off
The claim that XRP has "destroyed" capital is largely rooted in its performance relative to the massive rally seen in early 2025:
The Inauguration Peak: On January 20, 2025, during the inauguration of President Donald Trump, XRP surged to a peak of $3.34. This "Crypto President" rally saw the asset jump over 60% in less than three weeks as the market anticipated a hyper-pro-crypto regulatory environment.The Retracement: Since that January high, XRP has steadily retraced, currently trading around $1.91. This represents a 42.8% decline from its yearly peak, positioning it as an underperformer compared to Bitcoin, which has shown greater structural resilience throughout the year.Peer Comparison: While XRP’s 42% drop is significant, it fared better than other highlighted "portfolio destroyers." Assets like JITO, BEAM, and TIA recorded staggering losses of 89% to 91%, while SHIB fell roughly 72% from its 2025 highs.
II. Debunking the "Wipeout" Narrative
Despite the sharp decline from the peak, technical analysis suggests that the "total wipeout" narrative is mathematically hyperbolic for many holders:
Entry Matters: An investor who bought at the exact $3.34 top with $1,000 would currently hold a position valued at approximately $571. While a 43% loss is painful, it is a far cry from the near-total loss (less than $100) suggested by some social media commentators.The Long-Term Buffer: Conversely, investors who entered the market in late 2024 when XRP was trading near $0.50 remain in a highly profitable position. A $1,000 investment at those levels would today be worth roughly $3,820, demonstrating that 2025’s "destruction" was localized primarily to those who chased the inauguration-day hype.
III. Conclusion: A Lesson in Market Reflexivity
The 2025 performance of XRP serves as a case study in market reflexivity and the dangers of "event-driven" investing. The asset’s 42% decline from its January peak highlights the immense sell pressure that followed the speculative frenzy of the presidential inauguration. While XRP did not suffer the 90% collapse seen in smaller-cap altcoins, its inability to maintain its $3.00+ valuation has undoubtedly weighed on year-end portfolios. For 2026, the focus for XRP holders shifts from political hype back to fundamental on-chain utility and the actual implementation of pro-crypto policies.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary and market price action. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

As we approach 2026, the digital assets division of Andreessen Horowitz (a16z Crypto) has outlined a transformative vision for the global financial architecture. Their analysis suggests that the convergence of blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), and advanced privacy protocols will move finance from a centralized "Web2" model to a decentralized, automated, and transparent "Web3" ecosystem. This shift is not merely about new assets but about a fundamental rebuilding of the network layer where payments and privacy become integral, rather than secondary, features of the internet.
I. The Integration of Autonomous AI Agents
One of the most profound shifts identified by a16z is the emergence of AI as a direct market participant:
Machine-to-Machine Payments: By 2026, autonomous AI agents are expected to trigger on-chain payments such as purchasing data or computing power without human intervention. This makes payment systems a core part of the internet's protocol layer.KYA (Know Your Agent): To facilitate this, a new cryptographic standard called Know Your Agent is being developed. This standard ensures the authorization and responsibility of AI agents in an on-chain environment, allowing them to participate safely in global liquidity.
II. Privacy as a Competitive Advantage
In the Web3 era, privacy technology is no longer just a feature; it is becoming a critical "moat" or competitive barrier for the financial system:
Privacy Lock-In: a16z predicts that fully private networks using zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) and zkVM will create a "lock-in effect." The complexity of moving sensitive financial data between public and private blockchains will sustain a user base that prioritizes data control.Mass Adoption Pillar: For large institutions to move trillions onto the blockchain, they require a level of confidentiality not possible on public ledgers. Blockchains that successfully protect user metadata will be the primary beneficiaries of this institutional influx.
III. Stablecoins and the Tokenization of Everything
The infrastructure of value transfer is being redefined by assets that bridge the gap between traditional finance and the blockchain:
Global Liquidity: Stablecoins are becoming the "universal language" for real-time, cross-border payments, significantly reducing the overhead costs associated with traditional banking.Asset Democratization: Tokenization is expected to expand access to traditionally illiquid assets such as bonds, real estate, and commodities—allowing retail and institutional investors to diversify their portfolios with greater liquidity and transparency.
IV. Conclusion and Regulatory Outlook
The path to 2026 is paved with both technological opportunity and the need for structural clarity. While AI-driven automation and privacy-centric blockchains offer a more efficient financial model, a16z emphasizes that a clear regulatory framework is essential for mass adoption. Regulators who understand the interplay between AI, blockchain, and privacy will be best positioned to support an orderly transition to the Web3 model, where decentralized protocols potentially replace traditional intermediaries like banks. If successful, this evolution will create a global financial system that is more open, real-time, and user-controlled than ever before.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on report summaries from a16z Crypto. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The technology sector, particularly crypto and AI, is subject to high volatility, regulatory shifts, and technical risks. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.

While XRP has struggled to maintain upward momentum in recent sessions, a massive shift in on-chain activity suggests that the market’s largest participants are preparing for a significant move. Over a mere 48-hour period, XRP whalesspecifically those holding between 100 million and 1 billion tokens have accumulated approximately 330 million XRP, a purchase valued at roughly $642 million. This aggressive accumulation near the $2 psychological level, combined with a decline in network "liveliness," signals that long-term conviction is outweighing short-term selling pressure as 2025 draws to a close.
I. Institutional-Tier Accumulation and Reduced Selling
The case for an XRP recovery is currently anchored by two powerful on-chain metrics that point to a supply-demand imbalance:
The $642 Million Buy-In: The sudden addition of 330 million tokens to whale wallets indicates that large-scale investors view the current price consolidation as a high-value entry point. Historically, such significant accumulation by this specific cohort precedes a trend reversal as it absorbs available exchange liquidity.Declining Liveliness: The "liveliness" metric, which tracks the movement of long-held coins, has steadily declined over the past week. This confirms that long-term holders are shifting away from distribution and toward a "HODL" pattern. When liveliness drops during a price consolidation, it reduces the immediate sell-side supply, making it easier for new demand to drive prices higher.
II. Breaking the Month-Long Downtrend
XRP’s technical structure is currently testing a month-long descending resistance line that has consistently capped rallies:
Breakout Target ($2.02): XRP is currently trading near $1.94. The primary hurdle for a confirmed trend shift is a clean break and daily close above $2.02. Success here would signal that buyers have reclaimed directional control.Secondary Resistance ($2.20): If the whale-backed momentum persists, a breakout above $2.02 would clear the path for a move toward $2.20, marking a definitive exit from the prevailing downtrend.Invalidation Risk: The bullish thesis is threatened if XRP fails to sustain its current base. A slide below $1.85 would weaken the recovery narrative, while losing the $1.79 support would reinforce the near-term bearish outlook.
III. Conclusion and Short-Term Outlook
The short-term outlook for XRP is conditionally bullish, driven by a massive $642 million injection of whale capital. While the price remains pinned under a month-long resistance line, the combination of aggressive accumulation and fading long-term distribution suggests that the selling pressure is reaching exhaustion. Traders should watch the $2.02 level as the ultimate "line in the sand"; a daily close above it would likely validate the whales' multi-million dollar bet and trigger a broader market recovery into the new year.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

While Ethereum (ETH) continues to battle the psychological $3,000 resistance level, underlying on-chain data reveals a network with fundamentals that are currently outshining its primary competitor, Bitcoin. Despite frustrating price action, Ethereum is experiencing massive institutional-tier accumulation evidenced by nearly 400,000 ETH leaving exchanges this month while maintaining a user base that is significantly larger and more active than Bitcoin's. This combination of reduced sell-side supply and dominant network participation suggests that Ethereum is building a powerful base for a year-end breakout.
I. Network Dominance: Ethereum’s Massive User Base
Ethereum’s fundamental value proposition is increasingly visible through its adoption metrics, which far exceed those of other top-cap assets:
Holder Count Superiority: Ethereum currently hosts over 167.9 million non-empty wallet addresses. In comparison, Bitcoin trails significantly with approximately 57.62 million active addresses.Ecosystem Engagement: This dominance is fueled by the diverse utility of the Ethereum network, where DeFi, NFTs, and smart contract activity continue to drive consistent user engagement and demand, providing a structural floor that Bitcoin lacks in terms of on-chain diversity.
II. The $1.17 Billion Accumulation Signal
The most bullish indicator for Ethereum's recovery is the steady decline of supply on centralized exchanges, signaling a major move toward private custody:
Massive Outflows: Since the start of December, approximately 397,495 ETH—valued at over $1.17 billion—have been withdrawn from exchanges. Such significant outflows typically indicate that long-term investors are accumulating at current price levels and are not planning to sell in the immediate future.Reduced Sell-Side Pressure: Lower exchange balances directly reduce the immediate supply available for sale. This creates a supply-demand imbalance that can trigger a rapid price advance once buying momentum returns.
III. Conclusion and Short-Term Price Targets
The short-term outlook for Ethereum is one of high-stakes consolidation. While the network’s hidden strength is undeniable, the price remains trapped below its primary hurdle.
Breakout Targets: Ethereum is currently trading near $2,946. A successful breakout and daily close above $3,000 would open a path toward $3,131 and potentially $3,287 as confidence returns.Support Anchor: Bulls have consistently defended the $2,762 support zone over the past several weeks. A failure to hold this level would invalidate the current accumulation thesis and could see the price slide toward a four-week low of $2,681.Final Take: Ethereum is outshining Bitcoin in fundamental adoption and accumulation velocity. If the $3,000 ceiling is finally breached, these underlying strengths are likely to fuel a powerful "catch-up" rally to close out 2025.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The newly released Messari Theses for 2026 identifies "Ownership Coins" as the next major investment frontier, forecasting that at least one project in this sector will surpass a $1 billion market cap in the coming year. Unlike traditional governance tokens that offer only voting rights, ownership coins represent a fundamental shift by merging economic, legal, and governance rights into a single, legally enforceable digital asset. This innovation aims to transform DAOs into "digital companies," providing a solution to the long-standing accountability and legal recognition issues that have hindered decentralized organizations.
I. A Structural Shift in Decentralized Governance
Ownership coins move beyond the "social consensus" model of traditional DAOs to create legally binding on-chain entities:
Triple-Threat Assets: According to research from Galaxy Digital, these coins unite economic, legal, and governance rights. This ensures that token holders have meaningful, enforceable control over tangible assets, rather than just participating in symbolic votes.Legally Enforceable Governance: By embedding legal weight into on-chain decisions, ownership coins allow blockchain-native organizations to function as true business entities. This structural change is expected to improve investor protection and capital formation.Early Adoption Models: Projects like MetaDAO (on Solana) are already pioneering this path by utilizing futarchy—a system where prediction markets, rather than direct votes, drive governance decisions.
II. AVICI: The Sector’s Early Outperformer
The Messari report highlights AVICI as a prime example of the sector’s growth potential and community resilience:
Strong Retention: Despite a sharp 65% price decline during recent market volatility, AVICI maintained a high level of holder retention. It lost only 600 holders out of a peak of 13,300, suggesting a high-conviction investor base that views the token as a long-term ownership stake rather than a speculative trade.Broad Distribution: As of mid-December 2025, AVICI counts over 12,700 holders with a notably low concentration among large "whales," signaling a healthy, decentralized distribution that aligns with the "ownership" narrative.
III. Conclusion and 2026 Outlook
The ownership coin market is currently in its infancy, with no project yet exceeding a $1 billion valuation. This "early-stage" status is precisely why analysts and the Messari report view it as the defining opportunity for 2026. By bridging the gap between decentralized code and traditional legal frameworks, ownership coins could unlock the next wave of institutional and retail investment in the DAO space. While challenges regarding global legal clarity remain, 2026 is poised to be the year these assets transition from experimental theories to the new standard for on-chain organization and governance.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on market reports, analyst commentary, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Pi Coin is struggling to emerge from a three-week decline that has seen its price plummet by 28% from a local high of $0.284. While the technical structure remains fragile, on-chain data reveals a complex tug-of-war between opportunistic accumulation and dominant bearish trends. With capital slowly returning to the ecosystem, Pi Coin is currently boxed in a tight consolidation range, waiting for a decisive shift in momentum to either validate a short-term rebound or extend its painful correction.
I. Accumulation Signals vs. Momentum Risks

The case for a potential Pi Coin rebound is currently built on a shift in investor sentiment, even as broader trend indicators flash warning signs:
Rising Capital Inflows: The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has shown a gradual uptick over the past few days. This suggests that despite the price drop, investors are beginning to view current levels as attractive accumulation zones, slowly returning capital to the asset to absorb sell-side pressure.Trend Strength Warning: Conversely, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is hovering near the 25.0 threshold. A move above this level would confirm that the current bearish momentum is strengthening and that sellers still hold the reins. Until this trend weakens, any recovery attempts are likely to be short-lived.
II. The Range-Bound Reality: $0.198 to $0.208

Pi Coin is currently trapped between two critical levels that will define its trajectory for the remainder of the year:
Structural Ceiling: The immediate resistance sits at $0.208. Pi must reclaim this level to invalidate the bearish thesis and open a path toward higher targets at $0.217 and $0.224.Support Anchor: On the downside, the $0.198 support is the last line of defense. A breakdown below this level would signal that the bearish momentum has successfully overwhelmed the recent accumulation efforts, potentially leading to new monthly lows.
III. Conclusion and Short-Term Outlook
The short-term outlook for Pi Coin is one of tentative consolidation. The 28% decline has successfully attracted "buy-the-dip" capital, as evidenced by the rising CMF, but the overall market structure remains heavily weighted in favor of the bears. For a true recovery to materialize, the asset must sustain these inflows and break above the $0.208 resistance. Failure to do so will likely result in continued sideways trading or a deeper slide if the ADX confirms a strengthening bearish trend. Investors should monitor the $0.208 level closely, as it represents the first major hurdle for any year-end recovery.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

XRP is nearing a decisive moment in its 2025 price trajectory as on-chain and technical data signal a massive shift in market dynamics. While the asset remains weak on higher timeframes, the intense selling pressure that dominated the mid-month correction has begun to collapse, dropping by 39% in just one week. However, despite this easing downside, XRP is now colliding with a formidable 1.82 billion token supply wall, making the $1.96–$1.97 resistance zone the ultimate arbiter of whether a genuine trend reversal is underway.
I. Sellers Are Losing Their Grip
The case for an XRP rebound is currently supported by a combination of momentum shifts and a significant reduction in holder distribution:
Bullish RSI Divergence: On the 12-hour chart, XRP has printed a bullish divergence. Between late November and mid-December, price made a lower low, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low. This technical signal indicates that while sellers were still active, they no longer had the momentum to push the market lower with the same force.39% Drop in Sell Pressure: On-chain data from the HODLer Net Position Change metric confirms this shift. Daily net selling by long-term holders peaked at 216.9 million XRP on December 11 but plummeted to 132.2 million XRP by December 18. This sharp decline suggests that far fewer coins are being pushed onto the market, allowing buyers to stabilize the price.
II. The $1.97 Supply Wall: The Final Obstacle
Despite the drop in active selling, XRP faces a structural barrier that is difficult to ignore:
Massive Cost Basis Cluster: On-chain cost basis data reveals a heavy supply cluster between $1.96 and $1.97. Approximately 1.82 billion XRP were accumulated in this price range. As the price approaches this zone, many holders reach their break-even point and are historically inclined to sell, creating a powerful resistance zone.The Breakout Requirement: XRP has repeatedly failed to hold above $1.96 in recent weeks. For the current technical divergence to evolve into a real rally, bulls must secure a clean daily close above $1.96. Failure to do so would likely turn the current bounce into another "dead cat bounce," potentially leading to a retest of the $1.76 support.
III. Conclusion and Short-Term Outlook
The short-term outlook for XRP is cautiously optimistic, characterized by a struggle between fading sellers and a stubborn supply wall. While the 39% drop in selling pressure provides a necessary cushion, the lack of a breakout above $1.97 keeps the asset in a defensive posture. Investors should watch the $1.76 level closely; a breakdown there would signal that sellers have regained control. Conversely, a confirmed break above the supply wall would invalidate the bearish trend and signal a strong recovery into the new year.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.