Laniakea

1️⃣ The similarity between the October 2025 correction and April 2021
The sharp decline in October 2025 shares many similarities with the May 2021 correction. Both occurred after Bitcoin reached a local ATH, followed by a sudden drop without any clear negative news. The price structure, volume, and market sentiment all mirror the classic “mid-cycle correction” pattern — a natural cooling phase that often precedes the next major leg up.
2️⃣ The cause: not bad news, but a large-scale and sudden leverage flush
As in May 2021, the October 2025 drop came from excessive market heat. Leverage in derivatives markets reached extreme levels, leading to a cascade of liquidations. When $BTC hit its local ATH around $126,000, long positions were wiped out in succession, triggering a chain reaction that drove prices sharply lower. This was a healthy but violent reset — the kind of flush that happens when investors become overly optimistic and forget about risk.
3️⃣ Investor sentiment flipped abruptly
Within weeks, optimism turned into despair. Altcoins plunged 50–80%, wiping out months of accumulated profits. Many traders were liquidated or lost confidence entirely. This collective discouragement marked a cleansing phase — the emotional capitulation that resets the market before new growth can begin.
4️⃣ Bitcoin’s price structure is at a “life-or-death” zone
In 2021, the $30,000 region was the dividing line between bull and bear markets. In 2025, that role has shifted to the $100,000 level (which also aligns with the 50-week EMA — a key uptrend/downtrend boundary). This is now a crucial macro and psychological support. Holding above $100K keeps the bull structure intact; losing it could confirm the start of a prolonged downtrend.

5️⃣ Cycles are getting longer — but swings are getting shorter
The halving’s influence is gradually weakening, extending the overall cycle length. However, each up and down phase within the cycle is shortening: rallies now last 1–2 months instead of 3–6, and corrections last 1–3 months instead of half a year. The market now moves faster and reacts more violently — opportunities and risks appear almost simultaneously, catching many investors off guard.
6️⃣ Macro factors and recovery potential
If Bitcoin holds above $100,000 and breaks back above $108,000, a recovery could unfold by mid to late November 2025. Once the U.S. government resumes operations, liquidity from the Treasury General Account (TGA) — currently over $1 trillion — could be released. Combined with a Federal Reserve rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening (QT) in December, global liquidity may improve, creating favorable conditions for risk assets like crypto.
7️⃣ Short-term outlook
Based on both macro signals and technical structure, I sees the most likely scenario as a gradual recovery during November–December 2025. Stability around the 100K region is the key foundation for the next upward leg.
8️⃣ Q1 2026 – Opportunity and risk go hand in hand
If the recovery unfolds as expected, Q1 2026 could mark the strongest and most explosive phase of this bull cycle. However, risks will grow rapidly afterward. A new “crypto winter” could emerge as early as mid-2026, lasting about 6–9 months. Thus, if the next bullish wave arrives, it will be the golden window to rebalance portfolios and prepare defensive strategies before the cycle reverses.
In conclusion:
Bitcoin is standing at a pivotal juncture of its macro cycle. If history rhymes with 2021, this correction isn’t the end — it’s the necessary reset before the final leg of the bull market. The last big wave of the cycle hasn’t arrived yet — and ironically, it often comes at the moment when the majority begins to doubt its existence.


#BTC #altcoinseason2026 #uptrend #CycleAnalysis

After Bitcoin, Ethereum is the digital asset I trust most for long-term holding and value growth. If Bitcoin is “digital gold,” then ETH is the backbone for building the new digital financial system of the future.
1 ETHEREUM – THE BACKBONE OF THE BLOCKCHAIN ECONOMY
Despite competition from other layer 1 blockchains, Ethereum remains the core infrastructure of the digital economy.
Most capital, top developers, and major projects originated on Ethereum and then expanded to other ecosystems.
Any new layer 1 still needs to connect with Ethereum to be sustainable in the long run.
2. DECENTRALIZATION & SECURITY
While Ethereum isn’t as decentralized as Bitcoin, it’s still among the most secure and decentralized layer 1s today.
This makes ETH an ideal foundation for DeFi, RWAs (real-world asset tokenization), CBDCs, and cross-border stablecoins.
3. TRUSTED BY FINANCIAL GIANTS & GOVERNMENTS
Major institutions and governments are actively experimenting and building on Ethereum’s ecosystem.
BlackRock’s CEO has even said Ethereum is the perfect platform for asset tokenization—stocks, bonds, real estate, and more.
4. ETH’S TRUE VALUATION – TOP 10 GLOBAL ASSET POTENTIAL
Right now, ETH is only ranked #25 with a market cap around $445B, but its real potential easily exceeds $1 trillion (top 10 worldwide).
ETH’s growth pattern: bottomed at $100 → then $1,000 → next likely at $4,000, and could reach $10,000 in the next cycle (by 2030).

5. BELIEF, PATIENCE & RISK MANAGEMENT
Even though ETH has surged from $1,300 to nearly $4,000, this is far from its true “top” given its long-term fundamentals.
To ride ETH’s bull wave, you need strong conviction and patience. Remember: not investing is also a risk!
Always manage your risk, don’t FOMO, and this is not financial advice.
P/s: Digital asset investing comes with significant volatility. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully!

$ETH #ETH #Ethereum #MacroAnalysis

Have you ever wondered where Bitcoin has come from over the past 15 years—and how far it might go in the future? For me, Bitcoin’s story is more than just an investment asset; it’s a revolution reshaping global perspectives on value, wealth, and financial freedom. Let’s revisit its journey so far and explore my predictions for its next chapters!
🕰️ 4 Phases That Have Passed:
In 2020, when I first learned about Bitcoin, I recognized its potential to become the foundation for the global financial and economic system—simply because the blockchain technology behind it was designed for that very purpose. Since then, my predictions about Bitcoin’s development have proven remarkably accurate.
Yet, I remain unsatisfied with the present, holding firm in my belief that Bitcoin will soar much further. The world seems to have only just begun to discover its true potential, and this journey is still in its infancy.
🌱 Stage 1 (2009-2013): The Genesis Era – Tech Enthusiasts
Bitcoin emerged in 2009 thanks to Satoshi Nakamoto, becoming a playground for engineers, developers, and cryptography enthusiasts—those bold enough to dream. Who could forget the historic trade of 10,000 BTC for two pizzas? It was a laughable moment that laid the foundation for Bitcoin’s first transactional value.
🌿 Stage 2 (2013-2017): Pioneering Retail Investors
From 2013 onward, Bitcoin captured the attention of retail investors drawn by its high-profit potential. This wave turned many into millionaires and set the stage for the crypto market’s explosive growth, marked by the rise of exchanges like Coinbase and a peak price nearing $20,000 in 2017.
🌳 Stage 3 (2018-2021): The Entry of Companies and Major Investors
The "big players" joined the game: Tesla, MicroStrategy, Grayscale, and global billionaires began accumulating Bitcoin, transforming it into a "digital gold vault" in their portfolios. This era saw the introduction of financial products like futures contracts, driving Bitcoin’s price past $60,000 in 2021.
🌲 Stage 4 (2022-2025 – Ongoing): Global Financial Institutions
Today, giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK Invest are no longer on the sidelines. A pivotal moment came with the U.S. SEC’s approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024, unlocking traditional capital flows into crypto. This marks a new era of integration between digital finance and conventional financial systems.

🔮 Predictions for the Next Stages
Bitcoin is poised to enter three critical phases that will redefine the financial landscape:
🏦 Stage 5 (2026-2030): Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds may officially incorporate Bitcoin into their strategic reserves, positioning it as a global investment asset. With current trends, its price could climb to between $500,000 and $1 million.
🤖Stage 6 (2031-2033): AI-Driven Global Financial Systems
Artificial intelligence (AI) will revolutionize global finance, with Bitcoin serving as the foundation for a new digital financial ecosystem. AI could optimize transactions, enhance security, and build an advanced, tech-driven economy.
🌌 Stage 7 (2033 and Beyond): Global Asset Infrastructure
$BTC could become the "operating system" of global finance, measuring and safeguarding the value of all assets. Its worth may become intricately linked to global GDP growth, ushering in a new era of digitized economics.
Bitcoin is far more than a speculative asset—it’s a journey of trust, technology, and the shifting of power from individuals to institutions, from retail to mega-financial structures, and ultimately from humans to AI. I believe we are only at the beginning of this revolution. Where do you stand on this journey?
#bitcoin #BTC #BitcoinCycles #FinancialRevolution

كان البيتكوين في الماضي أصلًا مثيرًا للجدل، وموضعًا للتشكيك، حتى أنه وُصف بأنه مخطط بونزي طوال عقده الأول. ومع ذلك، في السنوات القليلة الماضية فقط، شهد البيتكوين تحولًا جذريًا: فقد تم الاعتراف به وتبنيه كأصل احتياطي من قبل مؤسسات رائدة حول العالم.
اليوم، أضافت مئات الشركات المدرجة في بورصات الأسهم الرئيسية حول العالم بيتكوين إلى ميزانياتها العمومية. وتُعدّ قائمة أكبر 100 شركة تمتلك أكبر كمية من بيتكوين (انظر الصورة أدناه) دليلاً واضحاً على تزايد قبول المؤسسات لبيتكوين.

Many investors are asking: “Where’s the altseason? $BTC is flying, but altcoins are dead quiet!” The answer lies in market cycles — and more specifically, Bitcoin Dominance.
Let’s break it down based on historical patterns and what’s unfolding now.
1. Altcoin season only begins when Bitcoin Dominance breaks down after a long uptrend
Looking back at the two most recent market cycles (2017–2021 and 2022–2025), we notice a repeating pattern:

📊 BTC Dominance tends to climb steadily for about 1,000 days before sharply reversing — and that’s usually when the real altseason begins.
In the last cycle, BTC dominance dropped hard right after Bitcoin hit its peak in late 2021.

Right now, BTC Dominance has already risen for exactly 1,066 days — matching the previous cycle almost perfectly.

The turning point might be closer than we think.

2. Altseason tends to happen at the end of Bitcoin’s bull cycle

Altcoins don’t run first. They run last — as the final wave of the entire market.
Early bull runs: Bitcoin dominates capital flow.

Late-stage runs: BTC slows → capital rotates into altcoins → altseason explodes.

⏳ If you’ve been patient with Bitcoin, you’ll need double the patience with altcoins.

3. Altcoins are in a deep accumulation phase

The current altcoin market feels boring. But beneath the surface, things are coiling. Many altcoins are quietly consolidating at low valuations — especially low-cap gems. This phase often precedes explosive growth.

Just because they’re quiet doesn’t mean they’re weak.

4. My Personal Outlook
📌 Based on cycles, dominance structure, and macro liquidity trends, I believe:
A true altcoin season will likely kick off in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, coinciding with:

The Fed’s first interest rate cuts

Clear signs of economic slowdown in the U.S.

Inflation trending back to 2%

Risk-on sentiment returning across global markets

Final Thoughts
Altseason is the reward for those who wait. If you’ve made it this far with conviction, don’t give up before the rotation begins. But remember one golden rule:
Take profits while you’re smiling. Altcoins don’t forgive greed.

#Altseason #BTCdominance #CryptoCycle #Bitcoin

Q1/2025 ended quite unexpectedly for most investors. Based on market cycles and seasonal patterns, this quarter should have been one of the strongest of the year — but reality said otherwise.
Bitcoin closed the quarter with only a modest correction, relatively mild given its historical volatility. However, Ethereum posted one of its worst Q1 performances ever.

But when you zoom out to the quarterly chart, the Q1/2025 candle bears a strong resemblance to Q2/2021 — which preceded a massive rally. I lean toward the possibility that Ethereum could be setting up for a rebound in the coming quarters.
Despite the recent stream of negative news, bad headlines often just serve to rationalize price moves. Ethereum remains the queen of crypto, with the strongest ecosystem, most developers, and robust foundational technologies.
At ~$1,800, ETH is trading near a strong support zone around $1,600. From a risk/reward perspective, this looks like a very attractive entry. Honestly, I’m feeling even more bullish on ETH than on BTC right now.
So if not now, then when is the right time to accumulate more ETH?
#Ethereum✅ #ETH #CryptoAnalysis #CryptoMarket #AltcoinSeason

📌 على الرغم من أنني أعتقد اعتقادًا راسخًا أن سعر البيتكوين سيصل إلى مليون دولار لكل BTC، إلا أنني قررت مع ذلك جني الأرباح على جزء كبير من حيازاتي من البيتكوين حول علامة 100000 دولار.
📌ليس من الممكن أن أتوقع التصحيح الذي سيحدث اليوم، بل بفضل الخبرة وإدارة المخاطر المنضبطة واستراتيجيات الحفاظ على رأس المال.
📌 إذا نظرنا عن كثب إلى الارتفاعات السابقة، فسنجد أنه كلما ارتفع سعر البيتكوين بسرعة كبيرة خلال فترة قصيرة، كان ذلك غالبًا ما يترك وراءه "فجوة سيولة". وقد حدث نفس الشيء خلال الارتفاع في نوفمبر 2024، عندما ارتفعت قيمة البيتكوين بسرعة، مما أدى إلى خلق فجوة سيولة بين 72000 دولار و90000 دولار.

🔹 بالنظر إلى حركة سعر بيتكوين عبر دورات التخفيض السابقة، يمكننا رؤية أنماط واضحة تظهر. إذا تكررت التاريخ، قد يفسر هذا سبب عدم رؤيتنا لموسم انفجاري حقيقي للعملات البديلة حتى الآن.

المصدر: Glassnode
✅ 1st: لم يدخل بيتكوين بعد في أكثر مراحل نموه انتعاشًا

في الدورات السابقة، كان من المعتاد أن يتداول بيتكوين بشكل جانبي لعدة أشهر بعد التخفيض قبل الدخول في أقوى اتجاه صعودي له.
تظهر البيانات من Coinbase Institutional وGlassnode أن هذه الدورة تتطابق بشكل وثيق مع الدورة الثانية للتخفيض (2016-2020).

1️⃣. الاحتياطي الفيدرالي وتضخم PCE يضغطان على سوق التشفير
✅ في 18 ديسمبر، خلال اجتماع اللجنة الفيدرالية للسوق المفتوحة (FOMC)، قام رئيس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي جيروم باول بتنفيذ ثالث خفض لسعر الفائدة لهذا العام، كما توقع السوق. ومع ذلك، اتخذ أيضًا موقفًا أكثر تشددًا بشأن السياسة النقدية لعام 2025. نظرًا لوجود علامات على ارتفاع تضخم PCE، يخطط الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الآن لخفض أسعار الفائدة مرتين فقط في عام 2025، بدلاً من أربع مرات كما كان متوقعًا سابقًا.

أسعار الفائدة للاحتياطي الفيدرالي<br />

تجاوزت بيتكوين رسميًا علامة 100,000 دولار، مما يمثل حدثًا تاريخيًا في سوق العملات المشفرة. ومع ذلك، يتساءل العديد من المستثمرين حاليًا عما إذا كان ينبغي عليهم الاحتفاظ أو الانتظار لفرصة أفضل لدخول السوق، خاصةً بالنظر إلى تقلب السوق المشفر المعروف، حيث تكون التصحيحات من 20%-30% شائعة.
إليك بعض الاستراتيجيات الشائعة لتقليل المخاطر والاستفادة من موسم النمو لتحقيق أقصى قدر من الأرباح:

1. استراتيجيات الاستثمار
متوسط تكلفة الدولار (DCA):
يخصص المستثمرون مبلغًا ثابتًا من المال لشراء بيتكوين في فترات منتظمة، بغض النظر عن السعر.

إذا كنت لا تزال تشك في وصول موسم العملات البديلة، دعني أريك الطبيعة الدورية الصارمة لسوق العملات المشفرة.

ألقِ نظرة على رسم بياني للقيمة السوقية الإجمالية (باستثناء البيتكوين والإيثيريوم)، وستلاحظ أوجه الشبه المذهلة التالية:

رسم بياني للقيمة السوقية الإجمالية باستثناء $BTC و $ETH
من ذروة العملات البديلة، يدخل السوق في اتجاه هابط يستمر لمدة 12 شهرًا.
من أدنى نقطة في الاتجاه الهابط، يتعافى السوق إلى الذروة السابقة خلال 24 شهرًا.
من نقطة التعافي إلى الذروة السابقة، يشهد السوق 12 شهرًا من النمو لتأسيس ذروة جديدة.

بينما
تستمر في تحقيق أرقام قياسية جديدة (ATH) وتقترب من 100,000 دولار - وهي نقطة تحول نفسية تاريخية لسوق الكريبتو - العملات البديلة تعاني من أداء ضعيف مقارنة بالبيتكوين، حتى تبدو ضعيفة بشكل ملحوظ.
الآن، مع كون كل بيتكوين يساوي قيمة شقة سكنية، يبدو أن لعبة البيتكوين محجوزة تقريبًا للعمالقة في وول ستريت مثل بلاك روك وإيلون ماسك. نتيجة لذلك، سيتجه معظم المستثمرين الأفراد إلى العملات البديلة (رموز ذات قيمة سوقية أقل غير البيتكوين) لتحقيق عوائدهم.

$BTC at $73,000 today is very different from $73,000 in March 2024. I don’t feel much excitement; perhaps the market following my forecast has taken away the element of surprise.The BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance, which has the largest volume and liquidity for Bitcoin, is what I usually analyze to gauge market dynamics.One key point to note is that the two CVD indicators, Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD Candles) and Aggregated Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (Spot CVD), still show a long-term downtrend, creating a divergence with the macro uptrend in BTC’s price action.To explain this phenomenon, although Bitcoin’s price has risen and sellers have been selling aggressively (possibly to take profits during Bitcoin’s growth phase), there has been an incredibly strong buying force that absorbed nearly all the selling liquidity. This is a very subtle signal indicating that large whales have been quietly accumulating all this time. Only the biggest whales and market makers have the ability to create such a macro divergence between price and the CVD indicators.

#Uptrend
#bitcoin☀️

The macro technical indicators on the weekly timeframe suggest that if $BTC surpasses $70,000, it could begin a journey to explore new ATH levels.In addition, with the upcoming U.S. election on November 5, 2024, Republican candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump is a strong supporter of crypto. If he wins, not only would it ensure a crypto-friendly regulatory environment for development in the U.S., but there’s a high probability that the bill to purchase 1 million Bitcoin as national reserve assets in the U.S. Treasury would pass.
As long as investors believe in this, regardless of the outcome, that belief alone could push #Bitcoin❗ to new ATH levels before the election takes place.


#newATH
#Uptrend
#BullRun🐂

في عام 2024، سيصل سعر الذهب إلى مستويات قياسية جديدة؛ وستصل مؤشرات الأسهم الأميركية مراراً وتكراراً إلى مستويات قياسية جديدة؛ وستصل عملة البيتكوين إلى أعلى مستوى لها على الإطلاق؛ وستظل أسعار العقارات العالمية (باستثناء العقارات التجارية والسوق الصينية) تنمو بوتيرة سريعة. وسترتفع قيمة معظم فئات الأصول، ولكن هذا ليس سوى نصف القصة.

عند النظر إلى السيولة العالمية، تضاعف إجمالي المعروض النقدي تقريبًا في غضون 10 سنوات فقط (2014-2024)، ليصل إلى مستوى قياسي بلغ 106 تريليون دولار أمريكي. وفي غضون 10 سنوات فقط، طبعت البنوك المركزية والحكومات كمية من النقود الجديدة تعادل إجمالي المعروض النقدي المتراكم على مدى عدة عقود سابقة مجتمعة.

بسبب اختلاف النهج ووجهات النظر حول البيانات، يختلف تحديد إجمالي المعروض من البيتكوين المحتفظ به في البورصات بشكل كبير بين الشركات وأدوات التحليل على السلسلة. في حين سمعنا كثيرًا أن كمية البيتكوين المحتفظ بها في البورصات وصلت إلى أدنى مستوى لها منذ سنوات وفقًا لشركات التحليل البارزة مثل Glassnode أو CryptoQuant، يبدو أن تحليل CoinMetrics يشير إلى خلاف ذلك.
تمت إضافة أكثر من 800 ألف بيتكوين إلى المعروض المتداول على البورصات (CoinMetrics)

والجدير بالذكر أنه خلال الـ 24 ساعة الماضية، أظهرت بيانات Coinglass أن ما يقرب من 100000