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Traders are positioning for downside risks, with a significant build-up of put options indicating expectations of a dip below $85,000.
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$BTC remains under pressure, hovering near $87,000, with analysts warning of potential further declines into early 2026.
Traders are positioning for downside risks, with a significant build-up of put options indicating expectations of a dip below $85,000.
Despite recent resilience, long-term holders have reduced their bitcoin holdings, and geopolitical risks and leverage conditions are expected to drive market volatility into 2026.
Crypto markets remained under pressure as bitcoin hovered near $87,000, with options positioning and analyst commentary pointing to rising risks of a deeper downturn into early 2026.
Bitcoin briefly climbed to $90,000 late on Wednesday before slipping back below $87,000, underperforming equity markets during the latest bout of macro uncertainty. Traders are increasingly positioning for further downside, particularly around the Dec. 26 options expiry.
Data from derivatives markets show a heavy build-up of put options at the $85,000 strike, suggesting expectations that bitcoin could dip below that level in the near term.
Thirty-day implied volatility has climbed toward 45%, Derive.xyz said in an email to CoinDesk, while skew remains firmly negative, reflecting demand for downside protection. Longer-dated skew is also anchored near -5%, indicating that bearish sentiment extends well into the first half of next year.
“There’s clear defensive positioning going into year-end,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said. “The uptrend that formed in late November has been broken, and the market is now trading more like it did during the October sell-off, with sharp rebounds failing to gain traction.”
Ether is showing a slightly more balanced profile. While short-dated ETH skew remains negative, longer-dated skew is closer to neutral, suggesting less conviction around a sustained downturn.
Still, traders have accumulated a sizable cluster of puts around the $2,500 level for the Dec. 26 expiry, highlighting a key area of concern.
Beyond near-term positioning, some analysts are warning that bitcoin’s long-term cycle may be turning. Bloomberg Intelligence commodities strategist Mike McGlone said the rally above $100,000 earlier this year may have planted the seeds for a much deeper retracement.
“Bitcoin’s surge toward six figures may have sparked a cycle back toward $10,000, potentially in 2026,” McGlone said, arguing that periods of extreme wealth creation are often followed by sharp reversions. He added that the next economic downturn could be led by a collapse in highly speculative digital assets with effectively unlimited supply.
Despite the warning, McGlone noted that bitcoin itself has been relatively resilient, down only about 5% in 2025 through mid-December.
Still, data from CryptoQuant shows short-term holders have been sitting on losses for over a month, while Glassnode estimates long-term holders have shed roughly 500,000 BTC since July.
Meanwhile, FxPro's Kuptsikevich said the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts this year mattered less as a direct catalyst and more as a signal that tightening was over, allowing investors to hold risk exposure through drawdowns.
“That patience helped push bitcoin to new highs earlier in the year,” he said. “But leverage remains elevated, and the October liquidation wave exposed how fragile price discovery can be when positioning gets crowded.”
Looking ahead, geopolitical risks and leverage conditions will be key drivers into 2026. For now, markets appear braced for volatility, with downside risks firmly back in focus as the year draws to a close.
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