Zcash (ZEC) is a privacy-focused cryptocurrency, and like Bitcoin, it undergoes a "halving" event approximately every four years. During a halving, the block reward given to miners is reduced by 50%, which decreases the rate at which new ZEC coins are generated.
### Key Points about Zcash Halving: 1. **Purpose**: The halving process is designed to reduce inflation over time and control the total supply of Zcash. The total supply is capped at 21 million ZEC, similar to Bitcoin.
2. **Next Halving**: Zcash’s last halving occurred in November 2020, which reduced the block reward from 6.25 ZEC to 3.125 ZEC. The next halving is in 49 days, further reducing the reward to 1.5625 ZEC.
3. **Impact**: The reduction in supply typically generates interest in the market, as fewer new coins are introduced, potentially affecting ZEC's price. Past halvings for cryptocurrencies have often led to increased market activity and speculation about price appreciation.
4. **Mining**: Zcash uses a proof-of-work consensus mechanism, and the halving impacts miners directly by reducing their earnings per block mined. This could lead to reduced miner participation if prices do not rise proportionally to offset the reduced rewards.
5. **Privacy Focus**: A unique aspect of Zcash is its zero-knowledge proof protocol called zk-SNARKs, which allows transactions to be shielded for privacy. The halving event does not affect the technology itself but is significant from a supply-demand perspective.
Overall, Zcash halvings are an important mechanism that can influence market dynamics, miner behavior, and ZEC’s price over time.
So we do have nearly $100,000,000 liquidation volume sat around the $71,600 level, which is the range high. So today i do expect a sweep of these levels on $BTC
Then on MONDAY everything dumps as usual.
SHORTING the range high for the sweep of $60000 again.
I’m not going to talk about fundamentals because, honestly, fundamentals look worse right now, but that’s not the point of this post.
From a technical perspective, the move from 70K to 120K wasn’t a healthy bullish continuation. To me, it was exit liquidity. A final expansion designed to trigger FOMO, liquidate shorts, and allow large distribution.
The long-term bearish shift was confirmed the moment Bitcoin broke the trendline that had been holding price since the 16K bottom all the way to the 120K top. That trendline was key. It supported the market for two years and defined the entire structure.
Right now, Bitcoin is retesting a major level: the 2021 ATH zone. In my view, this is an area where price could easily get stuck, consolidating between 50K and 60K for a while. A lot of noise, a lot of traps, and not much real direction.
The important part comes next.
Once we lose the 48K zone, I expect the downtrend to turn aggressive. And to be completely honest, I don’t think we see a real bottom without sweeping 16K first.
If 16K gets swept, I expect real panic. And by panic, I mean a fast move into 12K, with extreme negative sentiment and full capitulation.
That’s where I would expect a strong reaction, a recovery back into the range, and the start of a real bottoming process. But it won’t happen quickly. It will probably take months to build.
My scenario is simple: consolidation in the current zone, 48K as the trigger for acceleration, and a final capitulation between 16K and 12K before we can talk about a real macro bottom.
Stop celebrating calling $60K the bottom for Bitcoin. We’re nowhere near the real bottom.
Bitcoin’s Realized Price (average cost basis of all holders) right now is $55,244. Current price of $70K is 27% above the average holder’s cost basis.
1- In 2022, BTC bottomed at $15,476 which was 34% below Realized Price of $23,340.
2- In 2018, BTC bottomed at $3,200 which was 47% below Realized Price.
3- The same pattern repeated in 2015.
The rule is simple. Bear markets don’t bottom above the Realized Price. They bottom 30-50% below it.
If history repeats, 30% below $55K gives us $38,500. That’s exactly what my prediction for next Bitcoin bottom is.
We’re nowhere near true capitulation. The real bottom comes when Bitcoin crashes through Realized Price and stays there for months. Bottoms are never V-shaped recoveries, they’re long, painful and form after months of consolidation.