Jia Lilly

People are taking their money out of Exchange Traded Funds. This is happening because big institutions are selling their ETFs. The institutions are leaving the ETF market. They do not want to invest in ETFs

* The institutions are pulling out their money

* They are not investing in ETFs like they used to

ETFs are not as popular with the institutions as they were before. The institutions are. Taking their money with them. This is a deal, for the ETF market. ETFs are losing the support of the institutions.

I remember when everyone thought that Bitcoin ETF approval was going to be a deal. The Bitcoin ETFs in the United States the ones that bought a lot of $BTC Bitcoin 46,000 Bitcoin last year are now selling more than they are buying.

In January of 2026 people took out than $3 billion from these Bitcoin ETFs. This is a lot of money. It happened after people took out $7 billion in November 2025 and $2 billion, in December 2025 from these Bitcoin ETFs. The Bitcoin ETFs are not as popular as they used to be.

On Thursday things were really bad, for ETFs. They had a lot of money taken out to the tune of $434 million. BlackRock was one of the losers it lost $175 million. Fidelity was another one it lost $109 million. Grayscale also had a day $75 million was withdrawn from it. None of the twelve ETFs had any money put into them. Ethereum ETFs were also affected they had $80 million taken out on the day.

Friday's Bounce: Dead or Real Recovery?

On Friday Bitcoin had a comeback after what happened on Thursday. It went up by 11 percent, which is a big deal. For a while Bitcoin was worth around $71,458 but then it settled down to around $70,400. This was the gain Bitcoin has had in one day since the beginning of 2023. The reason for this gain was that people were looking for good deals, on Bitcoin and some signs were saying it was a good time to buy. Also the stock market was doing well which helped Bitcoin to go up. Bitcoin was really helped by people looking for bargains and Bitcoin was helped by the fact that the stock market was doing well so Bitcoin had a day.

People who have been trading for a time are not celebrating just yet. The price of Bitcoin is still pretty volatile. It has a 200-day moving average that's around $58,000 to $60,000. The people who work at 21Shares think that Bitcoin has not reached its price yet. A company called 10X thinks Bitcoin could go down, to $50,000 even if it goes up a little bit first. Bitcoin is a type of money that people are watching closely. According to Polymarket data there is a 42 percent chance that Bitcoin will reach $60,000 again before the end of the month. Bitcoin prices are hard to predict. People are still talking about Bitcoin and what it might do next.

The Bitcoin mining difficulty has dropped a lot it is the drop since China stopped people from mining Bitcoin in 2021. This is another sign that the Bitcoin ecosystem is having a time.

Glassnode says that Bitcoin is now in a bear phase, which is not good for Bitcoin. The Bitcoin ecosystem is really. This is a big problem, for Bitcoin.

So you want to know what happens next. The thing is what happens next is really important. What happens next can change everything. I am talking about what happens.

People think the markets for bitcoin are going to stay steady of going down really fast again. Polymarket says the likely price for bitcoin at the end of February is $75,000 and they think this will happen about 54 percent of the time.. It is still possible that bitcoin could go down a lot. The markets for bitcoin are still saying that the bad things that could happen to bitcoin are much possible. Bitcoin is still, at risk of going down.

The key variables to watch: whether ETF outflows stabilize, whether the broader macro picture (Fed policy, geopolitical tensions, tech earnings) calms down, and whether liquidity returns to a market that's been running on fumes.
$ETH $BNB

I am Jia. I want to talk about something that people usually do not include in presentations. It is actually very important for a blockchain product to be successful with real users: the time, between when you do something and when you find out if it worked.

It is not about how something takes. It is not about how much stuff can happen at the time. What matters is how it feels when you do something. It is done. There is a space between when you click a button and when you can trust that it really worked. You do not need to check if it worked.

In the way of doing things this space is filled with spinning wheels, pop-up messages that say everything is okay and green checks that mean yes it is done.. When people are playing games or going to events, in the metaverse or getting rewards right away you can not stop and wait for these things.

The moment is already. People are already talking about it. If the system says to the user wait and make sure everything is okay then the experience is not good anymore. The feeling of doing something and having it work is broken.

I call it the Second Tap Problem. This problem happens when I get feedback a little slow. It is not slow enough to make me think something is wrong.. It is slow enough to make me wonder if everything is okay. I tap the claim button. Then I wait for a very short time. If I do not see anything happen away I tap the claim button again. I do this because the system makes me feel like something might not be working right. I tap the button again because I am not really sure if it worked the time. That second tap is not me saying something is broken. The Second Tap Problem is me losing a trust, in the system.. When people lose trust in the system it can spread to other people very quickly. The Second Tap Problem can spread through a community of people faster than anyone can figure out what is going on and fix it.

When you watch people playing games live you will see something that always happens. This thing happens when you do not have to think about if something worked or not. You just keep playing the game because you know it worked. Nobody says "did that work?" to their friends who are playing with them. Nobody takes a picture of the things they have in the game to make sure they really got them. The players just keep going because they do not have to stop and think about it. The fact that nobody is worried is what the game is supposed to do. The goal of the game is to make sure people do not have to wonder if things are working or not.

On Vanar the buildings and structures are really something to see. The chain is like a process that gets sorted out while you are still having an experience that keeps going. In the background things like settlements are being taken care of. At the time in the foreground you get feedback that tells you what is happening. The thing is, nothing tells you to slow down and make sure everything is okay with both the background and foreground things.

In the Virtua metaverse environment things can get a little crazy. Actions are happening on top of each other while the state of things is already changing. For example someone can get a reward while another thing is still working on the moment. A trade can be finished while the chat is already talking about it. The system has to be done before you can even think about whether you want to ask questions about it. The Virtua metaverse environment and Vanar are, like this because the experience and the chain and the system all have to work.

The kind of engineering work needed for this is really tough. Most people do not see it. I have been in meetings where everything looked good. The logs were normal the latency was fine and the throughput was healthy.. Something still did not feel right. People were clicking buttons twice. The chat was filled with questions about timing. They were not upset. They were just curious.. Being curious is actually worse than being upset because when people are curious it means the system is teaching them that they need to double check things sometimes. Once people learn this it becomes a habit. They start doing checks. This causes delays. The system is making people do work like clicking buttons twice and this is causing tiny delays. The engineering work for this is about the system and how it affects the people who use it like the people in the meeting who were curious, about the timing. These things that people do on a platform they might seem like nothing at first but then they start to change how the whole community uses the platform. Behavioral hedges are, like that they appear to be harmless. Over time they define how an entire community interacts with the platform and that is what makes behavioral hedges so important to think about.

What makes this matter beyond gaming is the Agent economy. The Agent economy is important because in 2026 AI Agents are doing more, than carrying out transactions. They are taking part in real time environments where small delays can add up quickly. If an Agent has to check and confirm its actions because the system does not automatically confirm them this means the Agent has to do extra work. This extra work means the Agent has to use computer power, which costs more money and takes more time. This defeats the purpose of using automation in the place. An Agent that stops to check if its action was successful is an Agent that will fall behind its competitors. The Agent economy relies on Agents being able to act efficiently.

Vanars approach does not include things that confirm something is true. It actually removes the reasons we need these confirmations in the place. Vanars approach gives us feedback that's so tight we feel like something is complete before we even think to question it. The chain is not given credit for helping to settle things. The chain is only blamed for making it clear that a settlement has been reached. This uneven way of looking at things is the idea behind Vanars approach. Vanars approach is, about this imbalance.

The real test is not if something is fast when we try it out. The test is if people using it feel like something is missing when they are in the middle of doing something. If the answer is no if nobody stops and thinks about it nobody tries to do something nobody asks a question, about it then the system has done what it is supposed to do by not getting in the way of the people using the system.

Invisible infrastructure is not something that people notice. It is the way to show that the engineering is trustworthy. When people and machines need to work smoothly the thing that makes everything easy to use is the one that people do not even see. The invisible infrastructure is what makes it all work without any problems. Invisible infrastructure wins when it makes the experience better, for people and machines.

@Vanarchain $VANRY #Vanar #vanar

Crypto tokens work in a pretty simple way: people pay fees using the token that is native to that system and this creates a demand that is pretty much in line with how active the network is. XPL does things differently.. When you think about why it does this you can learn something important, about putting money into the basics of a system like infrastructure investing.

Plasmas main product is about sending USDT without using gas. People can send stablecoins like USDT without having to own Plasma coins without thinking about fees and, without all the stuff that makes paying with blockchain feel old compared to regular financial technology. This makes you wonder: if people do not need Plasma coins to send USDT then where do people get the idea that they need to buy Plasma coins?

To find the answer you need to think about how money moves like the systems that handle payments instead of just thinking about the economics of cryptocurrency tokens. The payment infrastructure and its economics are really what matter not the typical crypto tokenomics.

First someone still has to pay for the network resources. Plasmas Paymaster does not make the transactions free it just moves the costs from the users to the subsidies, from the protocol and the sponsors of the applications. The validators still need to get paid to keep the network safe. The experience of having no fees that the users see is paid for through the inflation schedule of XPL and the allocations of the ecosystem. This makes institutions want to use the network: the applications and the payment processors and the merchants basically buy the capacity of the network in amounts instead of making the end users pay small fees. Plasmas Paymaster and the network resources and XPL are all important here.

So the XPL is like a safety net for the network. People who want to help keep the network safe called validators put up some of their XPL tokens to participate. They get rewards for doing this. They also risk losing their tokens if they do anything bad. As more people use the network it needs to be more secure so validators are always needed. This creates a demand for XPL that is not just based on people speculating about its value. The way it works is that at first the network creates XPL tokens at a rate of 5%, per year but over time this rate goes down to 3%. This is meant to encourage institutions to get involved and validate the network while also making sure that the value of XPL does not get diluted too much over time. The XPL staking mechanism is a part of this.

Third the way people are in charge of payment systems is really important. This is different from DeFi protocols where the people in charge usually just vote on things like how money people can make. Payment networks have to deal with a lot of rules and regulations all the time. They have to make decisions about things like who to trust and who not to trust and how to balance keeping peoples information private with making sure everything is fair. These decisions really matter because they affect whether big organizations can actually use the network. The people who own XPL get to make these decisions, which makes owning XPL more valuable as more countries start to make rules, about stablecoins.

The way the tokens are set up shows that the people in charge are thinking about the future. They have divided the tokens in a way that forty percent of them will be used to help the ecosystem grow. Twenty five percent of the tokens will go to the team that is working on this project. They will get them over a period of time. Another twenty five percent of the tokens will go to the investors. They will also get them over a period of time just like the team. The tokens that people in the United States have will not be available to use until July 2026. This was decided because of rules that have to be followed. It also helps to make sure that the tokens are released in a steady and controlled way. The schedule for when the tokens will be available to use creates times when there will be a lot of demand for them so people can plan ahead. Make informed decisions, rather than being surprised when a lot of new tokens become available. The token structure is really, about the tokens and how the tokens will be used to help the ecosystem and the people involved with the tokens.

The price of XPL now is pretty low. This is because people who bought XPL on are selling it to make a profit and many people are feeling negative about crypto in general. XPL has gone down a lot, than 80% from the high price it was at when it first came out. You can buy XPL for $0.08 to $0.12 depending on what is happening in the market. This means that the total value of all XPL that people can buy and sell is than $200 million. It is pretty surprising that the value is so low considering that big companies, like Tether, Founders Fund and Framework Ventures are supporting XPL.

The bad situation with this is simple to understand: the system that everything works together in is not very good old payment companies might start using stablecoins in the systems they already have and when people can sell their tokens it will keep the price down until 2026. These problems, with this are things that we should think about carefully. The bear case is something that we should consider. The bear case has some problems that can hurt it.

The bull case needs us to think about the term. The amount of money that people are using stablecoins to settle is still going up no matter what is happening in the crypto market. Rules like MiCA and the US GENIUS Act are being. These rules help special infrastructure for stablecoins rather than using general chains that can do lots of things. Because Plasma has institutions backing it it has the money it needs to keep going even when the market is not doing well. The bull case for stablecoins, like this is strong because of these things.

I think the investment framework that makes sense to me is this: XPL prices are based on the idea that infrastructure and optionality for settlement will become a separate category. If stablecoins are mainly used by people in the crypto world then Plasma has a lot of competition.. If stablecoins become a real way to make payments across borders like the big market that Citibank says will be worth $4 trillion by 2030 then the people who build special infrastructure for this will get a lot of the value, from XPL and stablecoin settlement and XPL prices.

We need to be careful with how much we invest in XPL. This is not a thing that will happen with the price of XPL next quarter. We are investing in XPL because we think it will play a role in how people pay for things in the future. There are a things we are watching to see if we are right, about XPL. We want to see people using XPL to make payments. We want to see more stores start to use XPL. We want to see the government say it is okay to use XPL. We also want to see if the people who help make XPL work can make money from it.

@Plasma $XPL #plasma #Plasma

This is a drop in money. It went from one hundred twenty six thousand dollars to sixty thousand dollars. This happened in four months. Nobody thought this would happen. It was a surprise. The money just kept going down. This is a big change, in a very short time. The four month freefall of money was something nobody saw coming.

Let us go back for a moment. Back in October 2025 Bitcoin was doing well at a record price of more than $126,000. People were very excited. Big companies were starting to use Bitcoin. Exchange traded funds were buying up tens of thousands of Bitcoin. The story about Bitcoin was very convincing. It was, like gold it could help with inflation it was a unique investment and it was the future of money. Fast forward to this past Thursday, February 5th and Bitcoin fell below $61,000, which was a big drop. It was like people were giving up on Bitcoin completely.

The value of something has gone down by 50 percent from the highest it has ever been. The value of the thing has been cut in half. That happened in just four months. The thing has lost half of its value.

Bitcoin was not the one that had a tough time. Ethereum also had a drop to one thousand nine hundred dollars, which is the lowest it has been since early two thousand twenty five. Solana went down to eighty eight dollars, which's the lowest it has been in two years. XRP fell below one dollar and forty cents. The meme coins also did badly with the TRUMP token losing more, than twenty one percent of its value in just one day. If you look at the one hundred cryptocurrencies ninety of them ended the week with losses.

Thursday's Bloodbath: A Day for the History Books

February 5th 2026 will be remembered for a time. Bitcoin had a bad day it went down by more than 15 percent in just one day. At one point the price of Bitcoin even touched $60,062. Then people started buying it again when it was very cheap. This happened because people were buying Bitcoin with borrowed money and when the price went down they had to sell it so more than $2.7 billion of these bought-with-borrowed-money investments were sold in 24 hours. The loss that people made on Bitcoin was a record $3.2 billion this is what the data, on the Bitcoin network shows it was a classic case of people giving up on Bitcoin.

The Fear and Greed Index has really dropped it is now at 5. I do not mean 50 I do not mean 25 I mean the Fear and Greed Index is at 5. This is very bad the Fear and Greed Index being at 5 puts it in the "Extreme Fear" area, which's even worse, than what most traders are used to seeing with the Fear and Greed Index.

The sell-off wasn't crypto-specific. Silver plunged 14% on the same day. Gold slid over 2%. Tech stocks continued bleeding, with the XLK ETF posting its third straight losing day. Software stocks, crypto miners and crypto-adjacent equities like Coinbase and MicroStrategy (now Strategy) all fell double digits.