THE MARKET UPDATES

The physical market can no longer meet soaring demand.

Here is what is actually going on 👇

1. China is changing the rules.

Starting January 1, 2026, China will restrict silver exports.

To export silver, companies will now need government licenses.

Only large, state approved firms qualify:

- At least 80 tonnes of annual production
- Around $30 million in credit lines

This effectively blocks small and mid size exporters.

China controls roughly 60–70% of global silver supply. When China tightens exports, global supply drops immediately.

This is the same tactics China used with rare earth metals.

2. The silver market was already short supply.

Silver has been in a structural deficit for 5 straight years. That means demand is higher than supply every single year.

For 2025:

- Global demand: 1.24 billion ounces
- Global supply: 1.01 billion ounces

That is a gap of 100–250 million ounces. And this gap is expected to get worse after China’s export limits.

Mining supply is not growing:

Silver mining is mostly a by product of copper and zinc mining.

New mines take 10+ years to build, Ore quality is falling, Recycling is not enough to fill the gap.

There is no quick fix here.

3. Physical silver inventories are collapsing.

This is where it gets serious.

- COMEX inventories are down 70% since 2020
- London vaults are down 40%
- Shanghai inventories are at 10-year lows

At current demand, some regions hold only 30-45 days of usable silver.

This is why physical premiums are exploding.

In Shanghai:

- Physical silver trades at $80+/oz
- COMEX prices are much lower

This price gap means buyers are paying extra just to get real silver.

4. Paper silver is completely disconnected from reality.

There is an extreme imbalance between paper silver and real silver.

The paper to physical ratio is around 356:1.

That means:

- For every 1 ounce of real silver
- There are hundreds of paper claims

If even a small percentage of buyers ask for real delivery, the system breaks.

Markets understand this. That is why price moves are becoming vertical.

5. Industrial demand keeps rising.

Silver is not just a safe haven metal.

It is critical for:

- Solar panels
- Electric vehicles
- Electronics
- Medical devices

Industrial use now makes up 50-60% of total silver demand.

There is no substitute for silver in many of these uses.

Banks and institutions are reacting to:

- Supply limits
- Physical shortages
- Paper market risk

Silver is not rallying because of fear.

It is rallying because a real supply squeeze is playing out in real time.

This chart is shows when liquidity conditions improve, money often moves in a sequence:

Gold moves first.
Bitcoin moves later.

You can see it repeating on the chart.

2016-2017:

Gold starts trending up first.
Bitcoin is still slow at the start.
Then later, Bitcoin accelerates hard.

2020–2021:

When QE started, gold pushed to new highs first.
Bitcoin was still below its old ATH and stayed stuck for a while.
At one point, BTC was still far below ATH while gold was already strong.

Then the sequence flipped:

Gold momentum weakened and topped out. And that is when Bitcoin started the big move.

That is the main point. Bitcoin did not lead that cycle at the start. It followed after gold slowed down.

2025 Setup - The liquidity is improving again:

- The Fed has already done 3 rate cuts
- The Treasury is doing $40B per month in T-bill buying
- Global money supply is at all-time highs

And the price action is matching the same pattern:

Gold is already trending strong.
Bitcoin is still lagging.

Gold is highly overbought right noe so it will start weaking soon and we can start seeing money rotation from Gold to BTC.

Bitcoin market cap - $1.8 trillion
Gold market cap - $31 trillion
( Gold has added nearly $17 trillion in just last 2 years which is 4x of Japan’s GDP )

So if in next 5 years Bitcoin reaches just 30% of gold's market cap, the price per BTC would be $450,000 per .