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Chainlink (LINK) is showing increasing signs of downside risk as weakening whale demand and deteriorating on-chain metrics align with multiple bearish technical patterns. The token has remained under pressure for several months, and current market conditions suggest that further losses may be possible if key support levels fail.

Persistent Downtrend Since August

Chainlink has been in a sustained downtrend since August, reflecting broader weakness across the altcoin market. At the time of writing, LINK is trading around $12.38, down 4.5% in the last 24 hours and approximately 16.6% below its monthly high. On a broader timeframe, the token has lost nearly 54% from its 2024 peak, highlighting the extent of bearish sentiment.

Whale Buying Activity Loses Momentum

On-chain data signals a notable slowdown in whale accumulation. According to Nansen, whale-held LINK balances increased from 1.77 million to 1.91 million tokens during the first half of December, suggesting short-term accumulation. However, holdings have since declined to 1.87 million, indicating that large investors have begun reducing exposure.

A decline in whale demand is often viewed as a cautionary signal, as these participants typically act as early movers in major market shifts. Reduced whale interest can dampen retail confidence and amplify selling pressure during periods of technical weakness.

Network Activity and DeFi Metrics Deteriorate

Fundamental indicators also point to softening demand within the Chainlink ecosystem. Data from DeFiLlama shows that total value locked (TVL) across Chainlink-based DeFi protocols has fallen sharply from $1.13 billion in late August to around $530 million.

Additionally, weekly protocol fees have declined by nearly 50% since September, signaling reduced network usage and lower economic activity. Together, these trends suggest a slowdown in ecosystem engagement, potentially limiting near-term upside for LINK.

Bearish Technical Structure Takes Shape

From a technical perspective, LINK is forming a descending triangle pattern on the daily chart—a structure commonly associated with bearish continuation. The pattern consists of a falling upper trendline and a flat support zone, with confirmation occurring if price breaks below horizontal support.

Currently, LINK is trading just 5% above this key support, leaving little margin for error. Historically, breakdowns from similar structures have resulted in accelerated selling pressure.

Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook:

MACD remains below the zero line, signaling negative momentum.

RSI is trending downward near 42, suggesting sellers retain control while still leaving room for further downside before oversold conditions emerge.

Adding to the risk, LINK is also approaching a potential breakdown from a multi-year double-top formation, a pattern that often precedes deeper corrections when confirmed.

Key Levels to Watch

If Chainlink fails to hold the $10.1 support level, which has acted as a strong floor since mid-2024, the price could slide toward its August 2024 low near $8. Such a move would mark a significant extension of the current downtrend.

📜Outlook

With declining whale participation, weakening on-chain fundamentals, and a fragile technical structure, Chainlink faces elevated downside risk in the short term. Bulls will need to defend key support zones convincingly to avoid a deeper correction, while traders should closely monitor volume, whale flows, and confirmation of the descending triangle breakdown.

#Link #Cryptonews #Updates

Key Takeaways

Singapore and the UAE showed that clear licensing and stablecoin rules can attract institutions without forcing startups offshore.
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Countries with defined approval pathways moved faster than markets relying on enforcement actions or informal guidance.
Execution, not announcements, separated jurisdictions that delivered operational clarity from those still in consultation mode.
As 2025 draws to a close, the cryptocurrency market has firmly established its role as a structural pillar of global finance, rather than a speculative side experiment.

Total crypto market capitalization now stands at approximately $3 trillion, underscoring resilient long-term growth despite persistent macro volatility.

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Yet as the market has matured, one factor has emerged as the decisive differentiator between thriving crypto hubs and stalled ecosystems: regulation.

Policy assessments from firms such as PwC, Chainalysis, TRM Labs, and Elliptic show a clear pattern in 2025. Jurisdictions that combined licensing clarity, stablecoin oversight, and institutional access outperformed those relying on enforcement or bans.

In 2025, the global regulatory conversation shifted meaningfully. Governments moved away from reactive, enforcement-heavy postures toward structured, principle-based frameworks designed to protect investors.

Stablecoin oversight, licensing regimes, tax treatment, and anti-money laundering (AML) compliance became central pillars of this evolution.

Jurisdictions that provided clarity and predictability attracted capital, talent, and institutions; those that did not were left behind.

This Crypto Regulation Scorecard 2025 evaluates leading jurisdictions across 6 critical dimensions:

Regulatory clarity
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Support for innovation (including sandboxes and tokenization initiatives)
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Drawing on insights from leading industry rankings, the scorecard highlights the countries that got it right, those that successfully balanced market integrity with innovation, and in doing so, created environments where crypto can scale responsibly, sustainably, and globally.

These are the jurisdictions setting the regulatory standard for the next phase of digital finance.

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Ripple’s XRP is entering a delicate transition phase. While ETF inflows initially painted a bullish picture, deeper market signals now suggest that support is weakening beneath the surface. A combination of slowing ETF demand, long-term holder distribution, and declining derivatives participation hints that XRP’s next move may be shaped more by fragility than strength.

8
ETF Inflows: From Catalyst to Cooldown

XRP ETFs delivered a strong early boost, pushing Total Net Assets to approximately $1.24 billion. However, recent sessions show that daily inflows have sharply slowed, with several days barely registering new capital.

Importantly, this is not a mass exit — assets remain elevated. Instead, it signals that the initial ETF-driven demand wave is losing momentum. Price stability without strong follow-through buying suggests accumulation has stalled.

Earlier, institutional inflows combined with whale accumulation helped absorb sell pressure quietly. That stabilizing force now appears to be fading.

Long-Term Holders Are Reducing Exposure

On-chain data reinforces this shift.

According to Glassnode HODL Waves, wallets holding XRP for 2–3 years — typically considered long-term, conviction-based holders — have significantly reduced their share of supply:

Late November: ~14.26%

Late December: ~5.66%

This sharp decline in just one month suggests profit-taking or strategic de-risking by long-term participants. When such holders step aside during a period of slowing inflows, the market loses an important layer of structural price support.

Derivatives Market Signals Caution
The derivatives side tells a similar story.
XRP’s Open Interest on Binance has dropped to around $450 million, the lowest level since November 2024. This marks a notable decline from recent highs and reflects:
Widespread position closures
Reduced leveraged long exposure
Traders stepping back rather than positioning for upside

Falling OI usually indicates risk aversion, not bullish buildup. With less leverage in the system, price action becomes more thin, reactive, and sentiment-driven.

Market Implications
With ETF inflows cooling, long-term holders distributing, and leverage unwinding, XRP is losing the foundational support that previously kept price stable.

This doesn’t automatically imply a sharp sell-off — but it does mean that:
Upside catalysts need fresh demand
Downside moves may accelerate on weak confidence
Price is more vulnerable to sudden sentiment shifts

Outlook: Confidence Will Decide the Next Move

XRP now sits in a confidence-driven zone. Without renewed participation from institutions, long-term holders, or derivatives traders, the market lacks a clear anchor.
The next meaningful move — up or down — is likely to be driven not by hype, but by whether conviction returns.
For now, XRP remains stable, but exposed.