This chart suggests a #bitcoin cycle low around ~$25,000 in 2026 👀
If this plays out, it wouldn’t be shocking. Deep bear markets historically compress sentiment to extremes long after the majority believes the pain is already over.
The real question isn’t whether $25k is possible it’s how prepared people are to buy when narratives are dead, volume is gone, and conviction is at its lowest.
Markets don’t bottom when hope exists.
They bottom when everyone stops caring.
If this model is even partially right, 2026 could be where long-term wealth is quietly built not chased.
This chart is flashing a bold signal: Bitcoin could be heading toward a macro bottom around $50,000. Historically, BTC bottoms where fear peaks, sentiment collapses, and most traders are convinced “it’s over.” Structurally, this level aligns with prior high-liquidity zones and long-term support where strong hands typically step in.
If this scenario plays out, it wouldn’t be a sign of weakness it would be a reset before the next major cycle. So the real question isn’t if $50K happens… It’s who’s mentally and financially ready if it does?
Something important is happening beneath the surface, and price hasn’t reflected it yet.
First, spot vs leverage.
Recent BTC moves are coming mostly from spot buying, not perpetuals. Funding rates stay close to neutral, even during upside pushes. This tells us one thing: traders are not overextended. No crowded longs. No forced squeeze narrative.
At the same time, Open Interest is creeping up while volatility compresses.
This is a classic sign of position building. Smart money prefers quiet ranges. They don’t chase candles — they wait for boredom.
Now look at exchange flows.
BTC continues to leave exchanges steadily. Not in panic spikes, but consistent withdrawals. This usually indicates coins moving into long-term storage, not preparing to be sold. If this was distribution, exchange balances would be rising. They’re not.
Meanwhile, stablecoin balances on exchanges are increasing again.
That’s fresh liquidity entering the system. Stablecoins don’t sit on exchanges for decoration. They sit there to be deployed.
Macro context matters here.
Even with rates still high, inflation momentum is cooling. Markets don’t wait for the Fed to cut — they price the expectation first. Liquidity conditions always turn before headlines do.
TL;DR: Market prices the future, not today. Macro already shifting. Inflation momentum is cooling even if rates stay high. Markets don’t wait for cuts — they front-run them. That’s why $BTC holds structure while headlines stay mixed. The chart listens to liquidity, not news. Trade the flow, not the feed. $ETH $BNB
TL;DR: #altcoins look dead. That’s usually the setup. Altcoin volumes are low. Sentiment is worse. Attention is gone. Historically, rotations start when nobody cares. Not when everyone tweets rockets. If you’re bored, you’re probably early.
TL;DR: $ETH price lags, activity doesn’t. That gap usually closes upward. $ETH gas usage stays stable while L2 activity keeps growing. Supply growth remains muted. Price is late. Usage isn’t. Markets eventually catch up to reality. $ETH
TL;DR: Long-term holders aren’t selling. That’s not bearish. Coins held longer than 6 months remain mostly untouched. No major spike in old coin distribution. If smart money wanted out, you would see it on-chain first. You don’t. $BTC $ETH $SOL
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