Brothers, latest news: The U.S. military is piling up troops, the second aircraft carrier strike group in the Middle East (USS Gerald R. Ford) has departed, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln to form a super fleet! The Pentagon is preparing for possible operations that may last for several weeks, targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, among others. Trump has been issuing strong statements: 'Either we reach an agreement, or we go hard.' What is the probability of an attack?

Short-term (a few days to a week) **not high, around 20-35%**. Negotiations are still ongoing in Oman/Geneva, and Trump also said, 'I believe it can happen.' Although the U.S. military is preparing for war, there are not enough planes/defense networks yet, and the risks of actual conflict are high (Iran's missile rain can hit 11 neighboring countries). If negotiations break down next week, the probability will soar to 50%+! Keep an eye on Trump's tweets and news, as things can change at any moment. What impact on the crypto market? Black swan level! Short-term: in case of actual conflict, BTC could drop sharply by 10-20%+! It's currently at 69k, easily dropping below 60k. Small coins/meme coins will suffer even more, starting with a halving. ETF large outflows, panic selling.

Mid-term: Oil prices soar, inflation rises, the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the cryptocurrency market is under pressure, and the total market value shrinks by 20-30%. In the case of a prolonged war, the bull market will directly cool down.

Long-term: Quick victory stabilizes the Middle East, BTC rebounds as a safe-haven asset; chaos escalates, and cryptocurrency remains sluggish for a few months.

Currently high volatility, don't go all in! Hold stablecoins and wait. Do you think there will be fighting? Buying the dip or running away? Let's debate in the comments! #cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #Iran #Trump #geopoliticalrisk #crypto