This article is organized from the cryptocurrency WeChat mini program: Crypto Cloud Travel
As international tensions continue to escalate in recent years, events like the Russia-Ukraine war, the Gaza conflict, and Iran-related geopolitical risks have shown that geopolitical information has a growing impact on global capital markets. A war thousands of miles away could cause global stock markets to 'flash crash.' Intelligence is no longer merely a matter of national defense; the demand for situational analysis and forward-looking intelligence among ordinary people is also significantly increasing. The concept of 'Open Source Intelligence' (OSINT) is emerging: utilizing publicly available information from social media, satellite images, flight paths, and other sources on the internet to cross-verify and combine valuable clues. Examples such as videos posted by frontline soldiers on TikTok, related account login addresses, and the 'Pentagon Pizza Index' which infers military movements from changes in U.S. Department of Defense delivery orders, are all typical scenarios of open source intelligence.
The open-source intelligence scenario we focus on is prediction markets: they allow participants to bet on whether a certain event will occur, covering a wide range of fields including technology, entertainment, culture, and geopolitics.
Polymarket was founded in 2020, initially serving the blockchain-native user base. Its true entry into the public eye was during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle: a week before the official announcement of the election results, when mainstream media and traditional polling agencies struggled to provide clear conclusions, Polymarket had already reached a 65% probability for Trump's election. By around 10 PM on election night, the probability of Trump's election had risen to 90%, while many mainstream media were still reporting the latest vote counts and did not reveal the results until the early hours of the next day.
In this presidential election, the total trading volume of bets reached $3.686 billion, among which the two accounts with the highest profits made $38.62 million by betting on Trump's election. To this day, they still firmly hold the top two spots on the platform's historical profit list. This election fundamentally changed the public's perception of Polymarket and the entire prediction market: it is no longer simply seen as a 'blockchain casino' or speculative game, but is widely recognized as a data reference platform that is more accurate and insightful than traditional polls. Subsequently, many mainstream media outlets began to actively collaborate with prediction markets, systematically incorporating probability data from prediction markets into news reports as a supplementary perspective of market consensus.
For a long time, many people have understood prediction markets as 'a betting game on outcomes.' However, in our view, what is truly valuable is not the betting behavior itself, but the information advantage implied behind the bets. Industry secrets and key battle intelligence that were once locked down due to confidentiality agreements and other restrictions have become chips in the financial market with the support of prediction markets, and the fluctuations in the probabilities of prediction market events caused by insider betting are themselves an undeniable signal of reality.
In other words: if we can systematically identify these accounts, we may obtain a different kind of forward-looking clue than any traditional intelligence channels, or even know the results in advance when an event occurs. A show's ending has been filmed, an award selection has been predetermined, a regulatory outcome has been finalized... As long as someone is informed and the platform allows betting, secrets are difficult to completely hide. This has also completely rewritten the long-standing unchanged traditional information flow path into:
Event occurs → Informed persons bet → Dissemination of informed persons' betting actions → Public knowledge of the event (upcoming)
In mild scenarios, this means that the endings of series, award allocations, and business decisions will be known to the market in advance; in extreme scenarios, it even touches on war and geopolitical conflicts: people can gain military intelligence-level information through the bets of soldiers on the front lines, directly influencing the course of war. When results are already grasped by a few, and the market allows betting on results, the price itself may become an undeniable signal of reality.
In this light, the role of the disseminators becomes particularly important. Based on this judgment, as the largest media outlet in the Chinese-speaking region of the blockchain industry, Rhythm BlockBeats officially established a prediction market research team in November 2025 to begin long-term, structured on-chain research on prediction markets. Relying on Polymarket and the transparent, traceable nature of blockchain transactions, we attempt to identify accounts that consistently bet in a highly consistent manner in the prediction market and perform exceptionally stable over the long term through systematic trading profile analysis.
In this article, we chose one of the most representative research samples: the 'Russo-Ukrainian Occupation' series prediction market events. In this report, we will systematically present our research methods, core findings, and the practical value of this method in reality. Through the analytical methods mentioned in this report, we aim to refine trading profiles that closely align with insider accounts and predict the subsequent development trends of events by interpreting their trading behavior.
I. Report Summary
This report aims to identify potential anomalous trading behaviors surrounding 'Russo-Ukrainian War' related geopolitical events on the Polymarket platform through systematic on-chain and trading data analysis, and to assess whether these behaviors exhibit characteristics of holding undisclosed or insider information, thereby concluding whether the prediction market can provide real news facts in advance.
Methodologically, the report constructs and applies two complementary screening models: one is the behavioral focus model, which characterizes whether accounts are highly focused on specific geopolitical events from the perspective of trading structure; the other is the capital focus model, which identifies accounts with strong subjective beliefs or abnormal financial performance based on funding allocation, win rates, and profit and loss results.
Based on the analysis of 79 'Russo-Ukrainian Occupation' events, 23,316 independent accounts, and over 3.09 million transaction records, the report successfully filtered multiple suspicious accounts that significantly deviated from typical retail characteristics in terms of trading focus, capital allocation methods, and profit performance. These accounts generally exhibit: high frequency of activity focused on Russo-Ukrainian related events, heavy betting on related events, and achieving unusually stable or significant positive returns.
Comprehensive analysis shows that on-chain behavioral data can effectively portray traders' interest structures and risk preferences, providing strong data support for identifying potential insider trading or information advantage behaviors.
II. Research Background and Objectives
Compared to highly macro and vaguely defined issues like 'When will the war end?' or 'Will there be a nuclear conflict?' the 'Russo-Ukrainian Occupation Events' on Polymarket have high research value. The questions regarding such events are usually very specific, for example:
'Will Russia control Pokrovsk before October 31?'
This is a physical fact judgment about a specific geographic location and a specific time point, with no room for interpretation, and the replicability of such events also makes it the best war intelligence reward platform for insiders such as soldiers and intelligence personnel.
Polymarket was first launched in relation to Russo-Ukrainian occupation events in May 2024. As of February 10, 2026, the platform has accumulated 79 related events, each typically containing one or more time window markets, with a total trading volume of approximately $47.87 million.
Because of this, we conducted a systematic on-chain review of all 23,316 independent addresses that have engaged in trading related to Russo-Ukrainian occupation events and over 3.09 million historical transaction records, attempting to separate truly explanatory signals from seemingly noisy trading behaviors.
2.1 Insider Account Profile
Although the anonymity of blockchain prevents us from completely tracing account owners' identities, its transparent trading track allows us to mine insider trading data through massive data analysis and construct trading profiles. The analytical approach in this article is to use a funnel-like filtering process to gradually narrow down a large number of accounts to a batch of 'most worthy of manual review' targets: first look at behavior → then look at capital → then look at results → manual review. Here, we introduce two types of profiles:
2.1.1 Profile One: Behavioral Focus - 'I only participate in events where I know the outcome'
Those who truly grasp frontline information will concentrate their trading on Russo-Ukrainian occupation events. We categorized all transactions based on relevance into two types (related events and unrelated events) and defined transaction count focus = number of transactions related to Russo-Ukrainian occupation events / total transaction count, filtering out 439 highly focused accounts from 23,316 accounts while excluding 1,284 market maker accounts with transaction counts greater than 500.
Chart 1: Trader Transaction Focus Distribution Chart
By weighting win rates, profits, and minimum transaction counts, we further distilled 47 high-suspicion accounts from these 439 highly focused accounts for manual review.
Chart 2: High Focus Account Performance and Participation Intensity Bubble Chart
2.1.2 Profile Two: Capital Focus - 'I dare to make heavy bets in events I know the outcome'
Among the 21,593 low-behavior focus accounts excluded from the focus distribution, we further filtered valuable accounts based on capital focus, selecting 773 suspicious accounts with a capital focus greater than 0.5 (capital focus = related transaction volume of Russo-Ukrainian occupation events / total transaction volume).
Chart 3: Trader Capital Focus Distribution Chart
Subsequently, we added transaction numbers, profits, win rates, and other indicators, filtering out 282 high-suspicion accounts from the 773 candidate accounts for manual review.
Chart 4: Capital Focus - Win Rate - Profit and Loss Scatter Bubble Chart
2.2 Final Selection and Result Presentation
We reviewed the complete trading history of the 329 high-suspicion accounts selected for screening. To protect the account owners, we selected 4 of these accounts as case studies for in-depth presentation and analysis.
These accounts exhibit the most explanatory anomalous patterns in terms of transaction sequence, betting concentration, and performance outcomes.
Behavioral focus - Noirdesir had a trading win rate of 91% in Russo-Ukrainian occupation events, with cumulative profits of $908.12 accounting for 81.38% of his total profits. He had 11 transactions related to Russo-Ukrainian occupation events, 9 of which were bets on the occupation status of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which are less than 10 km apart.
Behavioral focus - Vladqwe had a trading win rate of 93.75% in Russo-Ukrainian occupation events, with a cumulative profit of $556.98 accounting for 77.89% of his total profit. His transactions related to Russo-Ukrainian occupation accounted for 61.54% of his total transactions, while the betting amount accounted for 76.17%. Among his 16 transactions in Russo-Ukrainian occupation events, 8 were about the occupation status of the Rodynske, Pokrovsk, and Myrnohrad areas, which are less than 10 km apart.
Behavioral focus - Napoleon1988 had a trading win rate of 80% in Russo-Ukrainian occupation events, with cumulative profits of $3,620.56 accounting for 91.57% of his total profits. His average betting amount for Russo-Ukrainian occupation related transactions ($1,558.24) was 4 times that of other events' average betting amount ($387.78).
Capital focus - starship0903 had a win rate of 92.59% in Russo-Ukrainian occupation events, with total profits of $23,943.4. The account's other transactions had total losses of $16,326.25, with the largest single loss of -$14,298.59 from betting on the top figure in Google search rankings.
III. Summary and Extended Applications
The theoretical discovery is exciting, but its real value lies in practice. We realize that if we can continuously track the behavior of these anomalous accounts, their betting actions may become leading indicators for predicting future events.
Rhythm BlockBeats is committed to transforming this methodology into productivity. Rhythm BlockBeats was founded in February 2018 and is one of the most influential media outlets in the cryptocurrency industry in the Chinese internet, with over 15 million users across the network and over 4.5 million app downloads, consistently ranking in the App Store News download list. After clearly understanding the impact of prediction markets on the news industry, we quickly established a prediction market team, which is the brand PolyBeats under Rhythm BlockBeats.
PolyBeats has established a monitoring system to track suspicious accounts in various prediction markets in real time, attempting to integrate on-chain analysis, public opinion, information, and trading profiles into verifiable current event news, and has been validated in multiple fields.
Case One: Successfully predicting the release date of Google's AI model Gemini 3.0 Flash
Technology Product Release: On November 28, 2025, PolyBeats captured three suspicious accounts with no on-chain intersection but highly consistent betting behavior through real-time transaction monitoring: account NCW fits the typical one-time insider wallet of 'behavioral focus,' and account ambuscade fits the abnormal excessive betting of 'capital focus.'
In the context of November 28, three accounts locked in the release date of Gemini 3.0 Flash through their betting behavior between December 15 and December 31. Ultimately, the model was released on December 17, 2025.
Original link: https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot/13
Case Two: Predicting U.S. strikes against Venezuela
Geopolitical actions: On December 9, 2025, PolyBeats found two new accounts that fit 'capital focus' by combining geopolitical classic indicators, open-source intelligence metrics such as the Pizza Index, and trading profile analysis, betting that the U.S.-Venezuela conflict would occur before December 31, 2025.
The subsequent direction of this news item is also quite dramatic: on December 31, 2025, the relevant military action did not occur. However, on January 4, 2026, shortly after shocking news broke that 'U.S. special forces successfully captured the Venezuelan president,' Trump publicly stated that the action was originally scheduled for December 29 but was postponed due to extreme weather conditions in the Caribbean Sea.
Original link: https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot/42
Case Three: Successfully predicting AI as the 2025 Time magazine Person of the Year
Cultural Entertainment Awards: On December 10, 2025, just before Time magazine's annual person of the year selection, the account shinewreck placed a bet of $30,000 on AI being the person of the year with a historical opening amount of only $1.49. This trading profile matches the abnormal excessive betting of 'capital focus.' The next day, Time magazine's cover was announced, and AI and its 'architect' were selected.
Original link: https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot/46
Case Four: Successfully capturing Israeli soldiers profiting in the prediction market using confidential information
Leading Israeli officials by one month in capturing military insiders: On February 12, 2026, Israeli officials confirmed the arrest of two military-related individuals who had insider information and profited by betting in the prediction market, revealing the account Rundeep, previously known as ricosuave666.
As early as January 6, 2026, PolyBeats identified ricosuave666 as an insider just an hour after the betting on a conflict with Iran and reported the past insider trading and latest relevant developments of the account in the channel.
Original link: https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot/156
These cases cover different fields such as technology, geopolitics, and the entertainment industry, demonstrating that this method does not rely on a single event type but possesses a certain degree of cross-topic generalization ability. By systematically analyzing on-chain behavior, converting funds and trading behaviors in the prediction market into interpretable intelligence signals, is a new path with practical value.
In the future, as more data accumulates and models iterate, this method is expected to become an important bridge between blockchain data analysis and news discovery mechanisms.
Rhythm BlockBeats has integrated Polymarket markets on its PC website and mobile app, becoming the world's first media platform to access prediction markets. In the latest real-time news, readers can directly see the current market data on Polymarket to help them gain a more comprehensive interpretation and understanding of the news.
The real challenge of prediction markets is not accuracy, but that it is dismantling an order that the content industry and regulators have long taken for granted: only information that is allowed to be spoken will become 'public knowledge.' When everything can be bet on, secrets are no longer constrained solely by institutions, professional ethics, or news blackouts, but must continuously resist the price discovery mechanism.
In mild scenarios, this means that the endings of series, award allocations, and business decisions will be known to the market in advance; in extreme scenarios, it even touches on war and geopolitical conflicts: people can gain 'military intelligence' level information through the bets of soldiers on the front lines, directly influencing the course of war and even changing reality.
This report has already proven that we can find hidden real information in prediction markets, and we are very confident that the reality changed by prediction markets is about to emerge.#加密市场反弹 $BTC