Author: Aloosh454
If you want to accurately determine the end of the bear market and the beginning of the bull market, you should take a look at the 3-day daily chart. This timeframe is the best observation point for the overall structure of Bitcoin. It is more flexible than the weekly chart but more reliable than the daily chart.
Historically, since 2014, there has been a specific signal that marks the "absolute bottom" for each major cycle. This is the cross-interaction between the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day Simple Moving Average.
Although this name may sound scary, history shows that this "cross" is actually a golden opportunity for long-term investors.
"the last breakdown"
Every time these two lines cross on the 3-day chart, they indicate the last correction before the start of a new round of the bear market:
2014 cycle: Before the cross in December, Bitcoin had fallen 72% from its all-time highs. After just 23 days, the golden opportunity arose, and Bitcoin saw its last 52% drop, reaching the absolute bottom of a new bear market cycle.
2018 cycle: After a 67% drop from the peak, the cross appeared in November. Just 33 days later, we saw the final 50% capitulation sell-off, representing a golden opportunity for long-term investors.
2022 cycle: Before the cross in May, the price fell by 50%. Exactly 33 days later, the market dropped another 45%, providing a great buying opportunity. However, after 156 days, a final lower low formed, completing the bearish market structure and opening the door to the next bullish cycle.
Where have we reached now?
After reaching its peak in October 2025, Bitcoin saw a 52% correction. On February 27, 2026, we saw the 3-day simple moving average cross again. As of today, we have passed exactly 30 days since entering this signal.
If "history repeats itself," it is highly likely that we will enter this cycle’s "final phase of position accumulation" within the next three to six days.