The fourth day of extreme panic
The Fear and Greed Index has hovered below 12 for four consecutive days—9, 11, 11, 12—this sustained extreme compression has only occurred three times in history: during the COVID shock in March 2020, after the LUNA collapse in 2022, and during the week of the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023. Each time, it was both a point of extreme pain and a precursor to a temporary bottom.
However, historical patterns are not a guarantee of safety. This time, the force suppressing the market comes from a harder-to-quantify variable: war.
On Friday, a U.S. F-15E was shot down in southwestern Iran, and one crew member is missing, with search and rescue operations still ongoing. Trump immediately issued a "48-hour ultimatum" to Tehran, with extreme wording. Iran refused and maintained its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices soared as a result, and the costs of diesel and aviation fuel began to seep into the profit margins of U.S. companies; CNBC used a precise term: "war 'tax'."
This is the most difficult risk to hedge in the current cryptocurrency market—an uncertain duration, compounded by inflationary effects.
The Fear and Greed Index has hovered below 12 for four consecutive days—9, 11, 11, 12—this sustained extreme compression has only occurred three times in history: during the COVID shock in March 2020, after the LUNA collapse in 2022, and during the week of the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023. Each time, it was both a point of extreme pain and a precursor to a temporary bottom.
However, historical patterns are not a guarantee of safety. This time, the force suppressing the market comes from a harder-to-quantify variable: war.
On Friday, a U.S. F-15E was shot down in southwestern Iran, and one crew member is missing, with search and rescue operations still ongoing. Trump immediately issued a "48-hour ultimatum" to Tehran, with extreme wording. Iran refused and maintained its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices soared as a result, and the costs of diesel and aviation fuel began to seep into the profit margins of U.S. companies; CNBC used a precise term: "war 'tax'."
This is the most difficult risk to hedge in the current cryptocurrency market—an uncertain duration, compounded by inflationary effects.