Trump and Iran WILL accept the ceasefire tonight, and WILL end the war this month.

Here's why...

What most people don't realize, but the markets know very well: Trump has no choice but to end this war very soon

Simple reason: 'It's the economy stupid'

Trump is not 'insane', as some are saying. He went too far with his posts, but he did the same with Greenland, and with Canada, to name a few

The Trump posting right now is the same Trump that tried hard to end the war in Ukraine, 'ended' the Gaza war (in theory), and credits himself with ending many other wars

The Iran war is a tragic miscalculation: Was meant to be a Venezuela 2.0, but failed miserably

Since then, Trump has abandoned all his initial objectives: Regime change, regime modification, controlling the Strait

When he realized and accepted this new reality, Iran realized how much leverage they have by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and they weren't gonna let that go unless they get concessions that make up for the massive destruction they faced

But here's the reality: Iran doesn't want to keep getting bombed, and Trump doesn't want to crash the global economy

Both parties want to end the war as soon as possible. They are currently going through a process in which each side realizes how much (or little) leverage they have, and what concession they need to make.

Pakistan's request for a 2-week ceasefire likely came at Trump's request, with Iran hinting they will accept it.

The ceasefire decision has already been made by both sides, and we will know about it shortly.

And in relation to the war, I expect the war to end this month.

Both Iran and Trump, no matter what you think of them, are rational actors