The Market Updates

RECAP:

Iran's top negotiators arrived in Qatar for talks on the emerging peace agreement between the Islamic Republic and the U.S.

Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran's parliament, is said to be leading the delegation.

But there have been conflicting signals over how much progress has really been made, with Trump stating today:

"The deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal."

We shall see.

Even if a deal is reached tomorrow, the 1,500 ships stranded in Hormuz will still take time to clear (130 ships a day was the pre-war status quo), perhaps weeks or months.

So it seems inevitable the impact of this war will still be felt in some way by the Midterms in November. How will voters respond?

In other news today, Pope Leo formally apologized for the Catholic Church's role in the trans-Atlantic slave trade and warned of the risks of AI in his 42,300-word encyclical.

The Vatican is even teaming up with Anthropic to better address the impact of AI on humanity, according to reports.

At the end of the day, AI is not only a technological concern, but also a spiritual one: what does it mean to be human?

🛢️🇺🇸🇮🇷 Oil drops 6% on Iran deal hopes. Markets are pricing in peace.

- Brent crude fell from $104 to ~$97 a barrel
- WTI dropped from $97 to ~$90
- Both sides have since downplayed chances of a deal being signed soon, limiting further gains
- U.S. stock futures jumped, pointing to a strong Tuesday open
- European markets up 1.75%. Asian stocks also higher

Oil is still $23 above pre-war levels. The market is optimistic, not convinced.

Source: CNN

🩸CRASH

$ESPORTS crashed -93% in a single day, wiping out over $110 MILLION in market cap and liquidating $4.72 million in longs.

There is a speculation that the majority of $ESPORTS supply was controlled by the team.

Here's how it happened:

- 60M tokens were quietly unlocked from a team-controlled multisig wallet.
- Connected wallets then dumped 178-197M tokens at once, which is 43% of the entire circulating supply.
- They cashed out roughly 19,049 BNB ($12.7M -$13.6M) into the liquidity pools.
- The selling wiped out all buy liquidity and sent the price toward zero.

Retail was left holding a token worth almost nothing.

🇮🇷🇶🇦 Ghalibaf and Araghchi Land in Doha for Talks With Qatari Emir

Iran's parliamentary speaker and foreign minister have traveled together to Qatar, where they will meet with Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

Mehr News reports the delegation will discuss bilateral issues alongside topics related to ENDING THE WAR and the lifting of sanctions against Iran.

Chief negotiator Abdolnaser Hemmati is also traveling with the delegation. He is the head of the team regarding sanctions.

Talks are reaching a critical apex now.

🚨 BREAKING:

🇵🇰🇺🇸🇮🇷 Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir tells Chinese president the U.S.-Iran agreement is in its final stages and very close to being achieved.

- Munir flew directly from Tehran to Beijing to brief Xi on the negotiations
- China's state news agency Xinhua reported intensive consultations between Munir and Xi
- The Pakistani mediator is now keeping both Washington and Beijing in the loop simultaneously

The man brokering the Iran deal just landed in Beijing to tell Xi it is almost done.

Source: Tasnim News

🇮🇩 Indonesia Rupiah has CRASHED against US dollar.

You are a MILLIONAIRE in Indonesia if you have just $56.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Here is what is actually known about the emerging U.S.-Iran deal, and where the gaps remain.

What both sides agree on:

- A 60-day MOU framework to stop the fighting and begin negotiations
- The Strait of Hormuz reopens gradually over 30 days
- Iran commits to entering nuclear negotiations
- "No Dust, No Dollars": sanctions relief tied to performance

Where they disagree:

- Frozen assets: Iran wants money released the moment a deal is signed. The U.S. says assets unfreeze only after the Strait reopens
- Nuclear stockpile: The U.S. says Iran committed to giving up its enriched uranium. Iran says it made no such commitment at this stage
- Lebanon: Iran wants the deal to end the war on all fronts including Lebanon. Israel has Trump's backing to maintain freedom of action there
- Sanctions: Iran wants all sanctions lifted. The U.S. says details come later
- Ballistic missiles: largely absent from current negotiations despite being a stated U.S. goal

Rubio:

"We're either going to have a good agreement or we're going to have to deal with it another way."
Trump:

"No Dust, No Dollars."

Iran:

"No assets on day one, no deal."

95% done. The remaining 5% is everything.

Source: CNN

Oil just dumped -5% at opening.

🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST POSTED THIS!!

GLOBAL LIQUIDITY IS SLOWLY COMING BACK

Major central bank balance sheet curves are starting to turn upward again, with China leading the expansion.

The last major liquidity expansion was during COVID-19, when excess liquidity flowed into risk-on assets that fueled the 2021 Bitcoin and equity rally.

🚨 BREAKING:

🇺🇸🇮🇷Trump says the Iran deal is not fully negotiated yet and tells critics to back off.

"Nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn't even fully negotiated yet.

So don't listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about."

- Trump contrasts his deal with Obama's, which he says gave Iran "massive amounts of CASH and a clear path to a Nuclear Weapon"
- Says his deal is "the exact opposite" but declines to share details
- Reiterates: "I don't make bad deals"

Full statement:

"If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon. Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn't even fully negotiated yet. So don't listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about. Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I don't make bad deals! President DJT"

🚨 BREAKING:

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 Netanyahu confirms he spoke with Trump about the Iran MOU and the upcoming nuclear negotiations.

"Trump reaffirmed Israel's right to defend itself against threats on every front, including Lebanon.

Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger.

Iran will not have nuclear weapons. My policy, like President Trump's, remains unchanged."

- Netanyahu says any final deal must dismantle Iran's nuclear enrichment sites and remove all enriched uranium from Iranian territory
- Trump reaffirmed Israel's freedom of action in Lebanon, directly addressing Netanyahu's core concern about the MOU
- Netanyahu expresses "deep appreciation" for U.S. support during Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury

Full statement:

"I spoke last night with President Trump about the memorandum of understanding to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and the upcoming negotiations toward a final agreement on Iran's nuclear program. I expressed my deep appreciation to President Trump for his unwavering commitment to Israel's security, including during Operation Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, when American and Israeli forces fought shoulder to shoulder against the Iranian threat. President Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger. That means dismantling Iran's nuclear enrichment sites and removing its enriched nuclear material from its territory. President Trump also reaffirmed Israel's right to defend itself against threats on every front, including Lebanon. The partnership between us and our two countries has been proven on the battlefield and has never been stronger. My policy, like President Trump's, remains unchanged: Iran will not have nuclear weapons."

🚨 BREAKING:

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says Iran talks are progressing and he has told negotiators not to rush.

"I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal as time is on our side.

The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.

"Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one."

- Trump calls Obama's Iran deal "one of the worst deals ever made" and says his is "the exact opposite"
- Iran cannot develop or procure a nuclear weapon under any circumstances
- Trump floats the idea of Iran joining the Abraham Accords

Full statement:

"One of the worst deals ever made by our Country was the Iran Nuclear Deal, put forth and signed into existence by Barack Hussein Obama and the rank amateurs of the Obama Administration. It was a direct path to Iran developing a Nuclear Weapon. Not so with the transaction currently being negotiated with Iran by the Trump Administration - THE EXACT OPPOSITE, in fact! The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side. The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes! Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. I would like to thank, thus far, all of the countries of the Middle East for their support and cooperation, which will be further enhanced and strengthened by their joining the Nations of the historic Abraham Accords and, who knows, perhaps the Islamic Republic of Iran would like to join, as well! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

President DONALD J. TRUMP"

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Trump called Netanyahu on Saturday night to reassure him: the nuclear program will be dismantled, and he won't sign a final deal without it.

The problem is that the deal currently on the table doesn't reflect that.

What the emerging MOU actually looks like:

* 60-day ceasefire extension
* Opening of the Strait of Hormuz
* Nuclear dismantlement pushed to future talks
* No requirement for Iran to export its enriched uranium stockpile
* Hezbollah disarmament left out entirely

Israel is watching a deal take shape that skips every condition it cares about most, and they're not even at the table.

Trump is telling Netanyahu one thing privately while the framework being negotiated says something else. Either the deal gets rewritten before it's signed, or Trump's reassurances were just reassurances.

Source: Times of Israel

$BTC now has 2 CME gaps to the upside.

$3,310,000,000 in shorts will get liquidated if Bitcoin fills the $79,200 CME gap.

$9,000,000,000 in shorts will get liquidated if BTC fills the $84,100 CME gap.

🇺🇸 TRUMP JUST POSTED THIS!!

“A peace agreement with Iran has been largely negotiated and will be announced shortly.”

“The Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”

Logan Paul bought this NFT for $630,000 in 2021.

Today, it's worth only $140.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 MAJOR DEVELOPMENT

A large number of US Air Force aircraft are currently moving out of West Asia toward Europe. Including refueling and transport planes.

Aircraft moving out could mean the military pressure is easing ahead of a deal. It could also mean repositioning before something else entirely.

Watching this closely.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Mediators say a 60-day ceasefire extension is taking shape

With the Strait gradually reopening, sanctions easing, and frozen Iranian assets beginning to unfreeze. Nuclear talks would follow.

There's one wall neither side has climbed yet. Trump wants Iran's 440kg stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium handed over and Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan dismantled. Trump told Netanyahu directly:

Without agreement on the uranium stockpile, there is no deal. Iran's position all week has been: end the war first, nuclear issues come later.

A 60-day extension isn't a deal. It's a pause that kicks the hardest question down the road. And gives both sides cover to claim progress while the real fight hasn't started yet.

The uranium is either leaving Iran or it isn't. Everything else is paperwork.

🔥THIS IS HUGE

🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran are close to extending ceasefire by 60 DAYS.

Send everything higher 🚀