Trump and Iran WILL accept the ceasefire tonight, and WILL end the war this month.
Here's why...
What most people don't realize, but the markets know very well: Trump has no choice but to end this war very soon
Simple reason: 'It's the economy stupid'
Trump is not 'insane', as some are saying. He went too far with his posts, but he did the same with Greenland, and with Canada, to name a few
The Trump posting right now is the same Trump that tried hard to end the war in Ukraine, 'ended' the Gaza war (in theory), and credits himself with ending many other wars
The Iran war is a tragic miscalculation: Was meant to be a Venezuela 2.0, but failed miserably
Since then, Trump has abandoned all his initial objectives: Regime change, regime modification, controlling the Strait
When he realized and accepted this new reality, Iran realized how much leverage they have by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and they weren't gonna let that go unless they get concessions that make up for the massive destruction they faced
But here's the reality: Iran doesn't want to keep getting bombed, and Trump doesn't want to crash the global economy
Both parties want to end the war as soon as possible. They are currently going through a process in which each side realizes how much (or little) leverage they have, and what concession they need to make.
Pakistan's request for a 2-week ceasefire likely came at Trump's request, with Iran hinting they will accept it.
The ceasefire decision has already been made by both sides, and we will know about it shortly.
And in relation to the war, I expect the war to end this month.
Both Iran and Trump, no matter what you think of them, are rational actors
Either Iran and the U.S. reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or Trump will bomb the living hell out of Iran and the war will enter dangerous territory.
If the deal is officially confirmed:
- Oil will drop hard close to $100 - Stocks and crypto will explode higher just like the April 2025 tariff rally from the lows.
If a deal is not confirmed and Trump bombs Iran's energy sites which are surrounded by civilians:
- Oil will rise sharply to $130, potentially moving towards $150 like many analysts are predicting. - Stocks will crash hard as the market will expect a retaliation from Iran by closing the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab Strait. - Crypto will crash with stocks and if Bitcoin breaks and closes below $65,800 the next drop could take out the $60,000 low sending BTC to $58k-$55k.
So today will decide if the market will bottom and give us a relief rally or we are totally cooked with our magic internet money.
For the first time since 2022, Global liquidity has started going down.
And the timing couldn't be worse.
The US-Iran conflict is still growing. The credit and housing market is weak. Inflation expectations are rising. Food and energy crises are looming. Growth expectations are getting weak.
If this continues, the global market could suffer in 2026.
🇺🇸 Gold trading hit $361 billion a day in 2025. That is nearly triple what it was in 2021.
It now trades more than U.S. Treasury Bills, more than the Euro, more than the Dow Jones. Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla put together average $26 billion a day. Gold does not notice.
People are not chasing returns right now. They are scared. And scared money always finds gold.