🏦 Will the FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve at 2 AM tonight give the cryptocurrency market a significant blow?
📌 Key time points tonight:
• 01:05 Federal Reserve's Daly talks about the economy and monetary policy
• 02:00 Release of the March FOMC meeting minutes (key)
• 22:30 EIA crude oil inventory
⚠️ Bearish risks:
1. Goolsbee and Williams have warned for two consecutive days that war is driving up inflation, and the wording of the minutes is likely to be hawkish
2. Market rebound relies on ceasefire sentiment rather than fundamentals, and the fear index remains in the extremely fearful range of 17
3. BTC/ETH ETF saw net outflows yesterday, institutional funds have not truly returned
4. Stagflation (high inflation + low growth) is the macro environment that cryptocurrency assets fear the most
5. Short-term gains are too large, with ZEC up +25% in a single day, strong willingness for bulls to take profits
🛡️ But there are also supports:
• The market has priced in expectations of no interest rate cuts within the year
• The inertia of ceasefire sentiment may continue in the short term
• If the minutes are not unexpectedly hawkish, they may instead be interpreted as a positive
📊 Probability judgments:
• Significant blow (-3%~-5%): 35%
• Slight pullback followed by stabilization (-1%~-2%): 40%
• Continued rebound: 25%
💡 Strategy advice: Monitor the market around 2 AM, BTC $70K-$71K is a key support level, do not chase high before the minutes are released.
📌 Key time points tonight:
• 01:05 Federal Reserve's Daly talks about the economy and monetary policy
• 02:00 Release of the March FOMC meeting minutes (key)
• 22:30 EIA crude oil inventory
⚠️ Bearish risks:
1. Goolsbee and Williams have warned for two consecutive days that war is driving up inflation, and the wording of the minutes is likely to be hawkish
2. Market rebound relies on ceasefire sentiment rather than fundamentals, and the fear index remains in the extremely fearful range of 17
3. BTC/ETH ETF saw net outflows yesterday, institutional funds have not truly returned
4. Stagflation (high inflation + low growth) is the macro environment that cryptocurrency assets fear the most
5. Short-term gains are too large, with ZEC up +25% in a single day, strong willingness for bulls to take profits
🛡️ But there are also supports:
• The market has priced in expectations of no interest rate cuts within the year
• The inertia of ceasefire sentiment may continue in the short term
• If the minutes are not unexpectedly hawkish, they may instead be interpreted as a positive
📊 Probability judgments:
• Significant blow (-3%~-5%): 35%
• Slight pullback followed by stabilization (-1%~-2%): 40%
• Continued rebound: 25%
💡 Strategy advice: Monitor the market around 2 AM, BTC $70K-$71K is a key support level, do not chase high before the minutes are released.