Today, let's talk about market analysis. The market has been quite good in the last two days, with Bitcoin breaking the high point of 73,000 and Ethereum breaking 2,200.
The main reason is that the US stock market trend is very volatile. We initially predicted a trend of 1 (as shown in the figure below), expecting it to follow a descending channel due to the overall environment of conflict and the lack of interest rate cut expectations, resulting in poor performance.
But on Wednesday, Trump announced a ceasefire, which directly caused the US stock market to soar. On that day, the Nasdaq rose by 3 points, and surprisingly continued to rise on Thursday without any decline.
The US stock market opened high, indicating its strength. Currently, the overall market value of Nasdaq is also 30 trillion dollars, and 3 points correspond to an increase of 900 billion in market value, so the entering funds should also be around 100 billion.
Therefore, from the emotional perspective, many funds or institutions are still afraid of missing out on the US stock market, or they still have confidence in the US stock market's subsequent performance, which is why they dare to invest their funds.
So this situation has developed, the US stock market has entered a new range of fluctuations, rather than a downward path. Similarly, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still in this fluctuation range; to truly break through or enter a bull market, we still need to watch the subsequent trends of the US stock market.
Currently, Trump has agreed to pause the war for 2 weeks, but what he says after 2 weeks still has some variables! If after 2 weeks he changes his mind and says no agreement has been reached and they continue fighting, even if it's just talk, the market will likely be worried! The most uncertain point in the market right now is Trump's words.
From the perspective of the interest rate cut tool, the probability of not cutting rates from November 4th to 11th is as high as 92%, with only a 20% chance of a rate cut in December, also due to inflation reasons.
Although the employment and unemployment data released a few days ago were good, with non-farm employment of 178,000 announced on April 3rd, far exceeding the expected 60,000, and an unemployment rate of 4.3, which is lower than the expected 4.4, indicating good economic data – but this data is 'fake data', and this data will be revised later.
Tonight, the CPI will be announced, which is also a key piece of data, with current expectations at 3.3. If it is below 3, it will be a great benefit. However, if it is higher than expected, it will be unfavorable because if inflation is high, the Federal Reserve is very likely not to cut rates, and may even raise rates!
Therefore, tonight's CPI data is very critical, and the current expectation has reached 3.3, previously it was always in the 2.x range.
ETF data
Currently, the BTC ETF data has warmed up, with inflows of 470 million and 340 million on April 6th and 9th, which is not very exaggerated, as there were previously inflows of over a billion; it can only be said that there has been some improvement.
AHR999 index
Currently, the AHR999 index is 0.39, which has been at 0.45 for 2 months, and it has been at the bottom range for a maximum of 3 months in 2023.
Previously, we counted the monthly indicators of Bitcoin. In March, Bitcoin's monthly line closed with a bullish line, ending a 5-month streak of bearish lines, which is the second in historical levels. Historically, reaching a 5-month streak of bearish lines is either a historical bottom or a second bottom (Bitcoin's 5-month bearish streak? The last chance for ordinary people to turn around?).
Will there be a big reversal this time? Because many people are currently looking at BTC's 40k, 50k, or even 30k. Just like in October, everyone was looking at whether Bitcoin could reach 150k, but it didn't. The market never follows the will of the majority – it tends to move toward areas of less resistance. So a big reversal here is not impossible! Of course, I think that the US stock market must not perform poorly, and Xiao Chuanzi must not create chaos.
The market always erupts in despair. Currently, the market is almost dead; many friends should have already exited. Is it now a time when no one cares? Leave your answer in the comments.
