š USāIran Peace Deal Outlook (AprilāMay 2026)
Market sentiment currently leans heavily toward **NO permanent peace deal in the near term**, despite ongoing speculation and discussions.
š Current Probabilities:
ā¢ April 30 ā ~1.7% YES (98%+ NO)
ā¢ May 31 ā ~29% YES (ā72% NO)
ā¢ June 30 ā ~47% YES (slightly bearish bias remains)
š Market Interpretation:
Traders are clearly pricing in **delays or failure to reach a permanent agreement** in the short term. While there is some optimism for June, confidence is still not strong enough to flip fully bullish.
āļø What Qualifies as a āPeace Dealā:
ā¢ Must be a **per
Market sentiment currently leans heavily toward **NO permanent peace deal in the near term**, despite ongoing speculation and discussions.
š Current Probabilities:
ā¢ April 30 ā ~1.7% YES (98%+ NO)
ā¢ May 31 ā ~29% YES (ā72% NO)
ā¢ June 30 ā ~47% YES (slightly bearish bias remains)
š Market Interpretation:
Traders are clearly pricing in **delays or failure to reach a permanent agreement** in the short term. While there is some optimism for June, confidence is still not strong enough to flip fully bullish.
āļø What Qualifies as a āPeace Dealā:
ā¢ Must be a **per