Report from Arkham Intelligence consisting of 6 points about Bitcoin cycles and typical behavior, and whether there’s a forecast for change.
-1-
Cycle Phases (in brief):

➡️Accumulation
After the crash
Calm + buying from big investors

➡️Pre-Halving Rally
Market starts anticipating supply shortage
Liquidity gradually returns

➡️Bull Run
Retail entry + FOMO
Historical peaks

➡️Bear Market
Leverage liquidation + significant losses
Drop may reach 70%+.
-2-
Why do these cycles happen?
Halving → reduces supply → increases price
Stock-to-Flow: Bitcoin scarcity increases with each cycle
Psychology: people follow the same pattern (self-fulfilling)
Global liquidity: money printing / interest rates have a strong impact.
-3-
Historical Examples
2013: First cycle + Mt.Gox crash
2017: ICO bubble → crash
2021: COVID liquidity + institutions → peak 69k
2025:
First ATH before the halving
Institutions (ETFs) lead the market instead of individuals.
-4-
Have the cycles ended?

The report states: it could change, not necessarily disappear

Main reasons:

Institutional entry (ETFs, big companies) reduces volatility
Halving impact has weakened over time
The market has become correlated with the global economy (interest rates, liquidity).
-5-
How do we know they have ended?
No massive crashes like before
No strong retail FOMO
.
Moves
#EthereumFoundationSellsETHtoBitmineAgain #arkham #BankofEnglandMayPauseDigitalPound #bitcoin #xrp #WhaleWatch #Ripple with global liquidity$DASH $XRP $ETH instead of halving