What the market is really scared of now isn't whether there will be a rate cut.

It's:
"Can the new Fed chair actually handle inflation?"
US Treasury yields shot up tonight.
The 10-year hit 4.53%,
while the 30-year climbed back above 5%.

What does this mean?
The market is starting to reprice:
High rates might stick around longer.

The issue is,
Kevin Warsh just took office.
And right off the bat, he’s faced with the toughest situation:
Rising energy prices,
Middle East conflicts,
Soaring import costs,
Inflation heating up again,
And Trump's still pushing for rate cuts.

Now the whole market feels twisted.
On one side, there’s political pressure,
On the other, the harsh reality of inflation.
And the bond market has already started to vote early.

Because what truly determines market direction
Is never just talk.
It’s all about the rates.
#高利率持久战 #降息期待