The market is facing three hurdles - no cuts from the Fed, outflows from ETF funds, uncertainty around Powell
$BTC
Bitcoin's current struggle to maintain a tangible recovery, despite positive geopolitical news, is attributed to three key macro pressures, according to market analysis.
Pressure #1 - The Fed's hawkish stance: The FOMC meeting vote on April 29 was 8-4 to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75%, with four dissenting votes representing the largest divergence since 1992. Markets are now widely anticipating no rate cuts throughout 2026. March PCE inflation was at 3.5% year-over-year (core 3.0%), with rising energy prices continuing to obstruct any path to easing.
Pressure #2 - Outflows from Bitcoin ETF funds: During the week of May 11-15, Bitcoin ETF funds experienced total net outflows of $1.039 billion, halting a six-week positive streak. BlackRock's IBIT recorded a one-day outflow of $448.4 million. Total assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs dropped below $101 billion for the first time since late April.
Pressure #3 - Uncertainty over Powell's transition: Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated he would step down but would not leave after his term ends on May 15, and will remain as a regular governor to defend the Fed's independence.
$BTC
Bitcoin's current struggle to maintain a tangible recovery, despite positive geopolitical news, is attributed to three key macro pressures, according to market analysis.
Pressure #1 - The Fed's hawkish stance: The FOMC meeting vote on April 29 was 8-4 to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75%, with four dissenting votes representing the largest divergence since 1992. Markets are now widely anticipating no rate cuts throughout 2026. March PCE inflation was at 3.5% year-over-year (core 3.0%), with rising energy prices continuing to obstruct any path to easing.
Pressure #2 - Outflows from Bitcoin ETF funds: During the week of May 11-15, Bitcoin ETF funds experienced total net outflows of $1.039 billion, halting a six-week positive streak. BlackRock's IBIT recorded a one-day outflow of $448.4 million. Total assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs dropped below $101 billion for the first time since late April.
Pressure #3 - Uncertainty over Powell's transition: Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated he would step down but would not leave after his term ends on May 15, and will remain as a regular governor to defend the Fed's independence.