The market dropped 2% today, and $BTC briefly hit 75850. I stared at that bearish candlestick for a while.
Then I saw the news about Strive; they just bought 1109 $BTC , bringing their total holdings to 16500 coins.
The timing is quite interesting.
While the market is down, these institutions are buying. Not sneaky buys—this is the kind of purchasing they publicly disclose. 16500 coins, at the current price, is roughly 1.25 billion dollars sitting there, not a small number.
I noticed that today's contract volume is nearly 10 times that of the spot market, with a contract trading volume of 12.3 billion, while the spot market is only 1.25 billion. This ratio is a bit high, indicating that a lot of capital is betting on direction in the contract market, rather than actually trading in the spot market. Institutions are buying in the spot, while retail traders are flipping contracts back and forth; these two groups are doing completely different things.
The funding rate is +0.01%, which isn’t high, and the longs aren’t showing any signs of overheating. The open interest is 98822 coins, and there’s no particularly abnormal accumulation.
So my feeling is that this drop seems more like a short-term game in the contract market, rather than institutions retreating. Strive increasing their position at this time somewhat confirms this judgment.
Of course, I could be overthinking it. Last time, I thought institutions were defending the price, and I ended up getting stopped out; that loss was pretty ugly.
If you ask me, I wouldn’t chase a short in the spot market here; I’ll keep an eye on support around 75850, and we’ll see if it breaks. I’m not opening contracts now; the contract to spot ratio is nearly 10 times, and I don’t want to gamble until the direction is confirmed.
What do you all think? Do you believe this wave of institutional buying can hold? Let’s chat in the comments.
If $BTC loses, don’t cue me; if they profit, buy me a coffee.
#BTC走势分析 #BinanceSquare
Then I saw the news about Strive; they just bought 1109 $BTC , bringing their total holdings to 16500 coins.
The timing is quite interesting.
While the market is down, these institutions are buying. Not sneaky buys—this is the kind of purchasing they publicly disclose. 16500 coins, at the current price, is roughly 1.25 billion dollars sitting there, not a small number.
I noticed that today's contract volume is nearly 10 times that of the spot market, with a contract trading volume of 12.3 billion, while the spot market is only 1.25 billion. This ratio is a bit high, indicating that a lot of capital is betting on direction in the contract market, rather than actually trading in the spot market. Institutions are buying in the spot, while retail traders are flipping contracts back and forth; these two groups are doing completely different things.
The funding rate is +0.01%, which isn’t high, and the longs aren’t showing any signs of overheating. The open interest is 98822 coins, and there’s no particularly abnormal accumulation.
So my feeling is that this drop seems more like a short-term game in the contract market, rather than institutions retreating. Strive increasing their position at this time somewhat confirms this judgment.
Of course, I could be overthinking it. Last time, I thought institutions were defending the price, and I ended up getting stopped out; that loss was pretty ugly.
If you ask me, I wouldn’t chase a short in the spot market here; I’ll keep an eye on support around 75850, and we’ll see if it breaks. I’m not opening contracts now; the contract to spot ratio is nearly 10 times, and I don’t want to gamble until the direction is confirmed.
What do you all think? Do you believe this wave of institutional buying can hold? Let’s chat in the comments.
If $BTC loses, don’t cue me; if they profit, buy me a coffee.
#BTC走势分析 #BinanceSquare