Let's talk about the market vibes today. First off, the crypto market is definitely in a rough spot; Bitcoin has dipped back to the 62k mark. Over the weekend, it pulled back to 64k, and honestly, the rebound is pretty lackluster. Plus, we’re seeing continued ETF outflows, so market confidence is pretty shaky right now.
On the flip side, the U.S. semiconductor market is absolutely on fire. Micron, SanDisk, and the Nvidia ecosystem we mentioned earlier are all hitting their previous highs or oscillating in that range. So, these two markets are a stark contrast—one is feeling down and out while the other is experiencing serious FOMO, making new highs. Naturally, it makes us think that the crypto scene is pretty bleak. Is there any hope left for crypto in the future?
My current personal view is that the “sweet spot” phase of crypto market gains is already over. In the future, it will probably be very hard to see a super bull market like 2021 again—where projects of all kinds (whether real or fake) can all fly.
Because the big bull market of 2021 had the following two reasons:
1. A huge burst of super-easy money in the macro environment. The Fed’s 0-interest-rate policy flooded the market with疯狂多的 “liquidity.” So actually, both U.S. stocks and crypto benefited from this wave.
2. Back then, the crypto market was still small—at least in its infancy. In 2019, the big pie’s market cap was only 65 billion (January 1, 2019, BTC price 3,700). The 2019 peak was 13,800 yuan, and the market cap was only 245 billion. In 2020, even at the big pie’s highest, the market cap was at most 500 billion (end of 2020, big pie price 29k). So if some money simply flowed in from the U.S. stock market, it could lift crypto right off the ground.
I think these are the most important two points: “the money is coming in.” There may be some other reasons, but I believe they’re minor issues. The most important thing is whether the money arrives.
So will the market be able to replicate the 2021 scenario? You can look at whether the two points above are met. Obviously they won’t be.
1. The interest has already been lowered for more than a year, and there’s still 4.5 more—let alone 0 interest rates. Unless a major financial crisis arrives—like the AI bubble. In that case, it’s possible to reach 0 interest rates. Otherwise, based on the current pace of rate cuts, it would take at least 10 years to get to 0.
2. Will the big pie still enter a market cap scale of several hundred billion? Obviously not. The total market cap of the entire crypto market has already reached 2.2 trillion, and the big pie’s market cap has already reached 1.28 trillion. This scale is already not small. To move it, it would definitely be harder than in 2019!
It needs more “liquidity.” But the problem now is that “liquidity” isn’t as abundant as before. So this wave in 2024–2025 didn’t replicate the prosperity of 2021. Not all coins rose—most didn’t break their 2021 highs.
So many people probably ask: will there be another big rally in 2029 this time?
I currently think it will be hard to achieve that. The analysis of the two points above makes it very clear: first, in the next three years, it’s impossible to cut rates down to 0. My guess is that the most they could lower it to—without a major black swan—is still just something in the “2” range. Because in 2026, rate cuts likely won’t happen. Then in the following years the situation gets complicated. Even if cuts occur, they won’t be aggressive—they’ll be gradual.
Then the crypto space will probably keep rising, but it definitely won’t be a total frenzy. In the last cycle, the big pie rose 6x; this time, the most I can estimate is 3–4x, which is already the limit. It might even not reach that. In a pessimistic scenario, 2–3x. Based on the current big pie price of 60k, a normal estimate would be around 180k–240k, so ~200k is roughly a key level.
Since the big pie reaches 200,000, its market cap would come to 3.6 trillion, which is about the same as the current silver market cap—lower than today’s Nvidia, Google, and Apple. So, in a way, that’s reasonable. After all, Bitcoin is a consensus asset; it has not existed for as long as these companies, and it has generated less profit than they have. So it’s also reasonable that its market cap doesn’t exceed theirs. If it did exceed them, people would probably complain: this world is crazy—how can the market cap of a virtual asset that creates no value surpass Nvidia, Google, and Apple? By comparison: if Bitcoin’s market cap is higher, then many people would likely choose to invest in U.S.-listed companies that produce real value and earnings, instead of Bitcoin.
As for other altcoins, most of them will likely die. After all, the current “liquidity” is limited. Altcoins that can’t create value or generate revenue will have only one way out: death—or a one-round hype (squeeze one cycle, then leave).
As I said earlier, the “bonus period” in the crypto world is already gone. The industry has matured, the “grass” is waking up, and AI is booming and sucking in capital.
In the future, the crypto scene will get harder and harder. Altcoin projects—you’re better off not touching them, unless you have a special relationship with the “whales.” And if you’re coming to crypto expecting to get rich by hundreds of times, you should also forget about it—unless you have a special relationship with the whales. As for mainstream coins hoping to multiply by tens of times, you basically shouldn’t count on that either.
Hold the mainstream steadily (big pie + Ethereum), and pay more attention to the world’s “main storyline”—AI. Because in terms of how much it affects the world, crypto clearly can’t compare to AI. AI could influence human society over the next 10–20 years, and it’s the most important variable.
A relatively good approach right now is: once a new AI concept emerges, go take a look and understand it. For example, if there are new concepts and projects related to AI and blockchain, you can trade them. Or if there are companies that are tied to AI concepts, you can also trade U.S. stocks involving those themes.
Because money will definitely flow into technologies or companies that can “change the world”! $NVDAB
