Bit_ardizor
Pro crypto Trader market analyst sharing market insights / since 2017_: Twitter/X @agela157056
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🔥METAPLANET: “WE DID NOT UNDERPERFORM”
CEO Simon Gerovich to critics:
“Yes, September turned out to be a local top, we’re not denying that. But our strategy isn’t about timing the market. It’s about systematically and long-term accumulating Bitcoin, regardless of the price.”
CEO Simon Gerovich to critics:
“Yes, September turned out to be a local top, we’re not denying that. But our strategy isn’t about timing the market. It’s about systematically and long-term accumulating Bitcoin, regardless of the price.”
$FET
While the 6th of February low could mark a durable bottom, the advance from that low has so far unfolded only in a 3-wave structure and has not managed to break the first Fibonacci resistance at 0.184 USD. Without a clear 5-wave move to the upside, confirmation of a sustainable reversal is missing.
An alternative interpretation remains valid in which orange wave 4 has already formed a top and the market is preparing for another leg lower before a more durable low is established. In that case, focus shifts to 0.131 USD as the next potential support, followed by 0.118 USD if weakness extends. A sustained break below 0.140 USD would significantly weaken the white scenario and increase the probability of renewed downside pressure.
The broader i-ii setup tracked since the October 10th low remains highly speculative. Microstructure from that low lacks clarity, and price extremes vary across exchanges, which reduces reliability. A more constructive outlook would require a completed 5-wave advance from a recent swing low, which would indicate that white wave 2 has likely bottomed. For now, price is testing the first micro support zone between 0.140 USD and 0.156 USD. A strong bullish reaction from this area would keep the white scenario valid, potentially forming a flat correction. However, until a confirmed impulsive structure develops, the setup remains speculative and requires confirmation.
While the 6th of February low could mark a durable bottom, the advance from that low has so far unfolded only in a 3-wave structure and has not managed to break the first Fibonacci resistance at 0.184 USD. Without a clear 5-wave move to the upside, confirmation of a sustainable reversal is missing.
An alternative interpretation remains valid in which orange wave 4 has already formed a top and the market is preparing for another leg lower before a more durable low is established. In that case, focus shifts to 0.131 USD as the next potential support, followed by 0.118 USD if weakness extends. A sustained break below 0.140 USD would significantly weaken the white scenario and increase the probability of renewed downside pressure.
The broader i-ii setup tracked since the October 10th low remains highly speculative. Microstructure from that low lacks clarity, and price extremes vary across exchanges, which reduces reliability. A more constructive outlook would require a completed 5-wave advance from a recent swing low, which would indicate that white wave 2 has likely bottomed. For now, price is testing the first micro support zone between 0.140 USD and 0.156 USD. A strong bullish reaction from this area would keep the white scenario valid, potentially forming a flat correction. However, until a confirmed impulsive structure develops, the setup remains speculative and requires confirmation.
BlackRock's AUM is not buying pressure, it is inventory; direction depends on 'flow + volatility'.
iShares: IBIT net assets $50,810,649,821.00 (2/19); daily turnover 44,587,859 shares, remaining 30D average 52.868%. The scale is still thickening, and trading heat is retreating first.
Crypto.com: BTC at the same window 78,646→68,037 (-13.491%), annualized realized vol 90.291%. The volatility has not been 'institutionalized' and smoothed out, but rather amplified by leverage.
Farside: Total net outflow on 2/18 -133.3m, 2/19 -165.8m; IBIT -84.2m / -90.7m respectively. The outflow occurred during the BTC rebound phase, selling was 'packaged', not panic selling of spot; funds are doing basis and repositioning.
TradingView: IBIT price $38.02 vs NAV $37.98, premium 0.105%. The arbitrage chain locks the error into a basis point level range, resulting in C: when the premium approaches 0, no matter how large the ETF scale is, it does not provide direction; it provides a liquidity pool that can be traded at any time.
$BTC
iShares: IBIT net assets $50,810,649,821.00 (2/19); daily turnover 44,587,859 shares, remaining 30D average 52.868%. The scale is still thickening, and trading heat is retreating first.
Crypto.com: BTC at the same window 78,646→68,037 (-13.491%), annualized realized vol 90.291%. The volatility has not been 'institutionalized' and smoothed out, but rather amplified by leverage.
Farside: Total net outflow on 2/18 -133.3m, 2/19 -165.8m; IBIT -84.2m / -90.7m respectively. The outflow occurred during the BTC rebound phase, selling was 'packaged', not panic selling of spot; funds are doing basis and repositioning.
TradingView: IBIT price $38.02 vs NAV $37.98, premium 0.105%. The arbitrage chain locks the error into a basis point level range, resulting in C: when the premium approaches 0, no matter how large the ETF scale is, it does not provide direction; it provides a liquidity pool that can be traded at any time.
$BTC
0.039$ ——> 0.14$
Solid 4X gain on $BAN so far
Solid 4X gain on $BAN so far
$MSTR oversold on HTF at $129.
$114 likely the floor as mentioned.
Some chop and building a bottom in this area before a nice pump? What do you say?
Strategy is holding around 717,000 BTC with ~1.19x mNAV.
Saylor is the BTC paladin.
#Bitcoin
$114 likely the floor as mentioned.
Some chop and building a bottom in this area before a nice pump? What do you say?
Strategy is holding around 717,000 BTC with ~1.19x mNAV.
Saylor is the BTC paladin.
#Bitcoin
Altseason ALERT: $BTC Dominance Rejected from Major Resistance and Turning Bearish
Mega Altseason is Loading 🚀
Mega Altseason is Loading 🚀
$BTC
The 5 phases of the bear market bottom.
Look at both the 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms.
Same structure. Same sequence. Every single time.
1) Capitulation. The big flush that wipes out leveraged longs and forces panic selling.
2) Retest. Price bounces, then comes back down to test the lows. This is where most people think it's going to zero.
3) Spring. The false breakdown below support that shakes out the last sellers. This is the pattern I shared yesterday. The most important step.
4) Higher lows. Once the Spring holds, price starts building a staircase. Each dip is shallower than the last. Sellers have been exhausted.
5) Breakout. Range gets cleared to the upside. New trend begins.
We haven't even started phase 1 yet. We're still in the markdown. The people calling the bottom at $60K are skipping this entire process.
Same setup played out in 2018. In 2022. And for a century before Bitcoin even existed.
It'll happen again.
The 5 phases of the bear market bottom.
Look at both the 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms.
Same structure. Same sequence. Every single time.
1) Capitulation. The big flush that wipes out leveraged longs and forces panic selling.
2) Retest. Price bounces, then comes back down to test the lows. This is where most people think it's going to zero.
3) Spring. The false breakdown below support that shakes out the last sellers. This is the pattern I shared yesterday. The most important step.
4) Higher lows. Once the Spring holds, price starts building a staircase. Each dip is shallower than the last. Sellers have been exhausted.
5) Breakout. Range gets cleared to the upside. New trend begins.
We haven't even started phase 1 yet. We're still in the markdown. The people calling the bottom at $60K are skipping this entire process.
Same setup played out in 2018. In 2022. And for a century before Bitcoin even existed.
It'll happen again.
$BTC No changes. Genuinely think most people are best of to yet again: Set some alerts at important high timeframe levels, maybe set some random low bids, wait for the range to resolve.
Not much to do here besides maybe catching the daily 1-2% move. Obviously this can add up if you scalp well but it's not worth the time & energy for most people.
Not much to do here besides maybe catching the daily 1-2% move. Obviously this can add up if you scalp well but it's not worth the time & energy for most people.
$BTC : A successful retest of the trendline from above could trigger a wave-3 of (3).
Support for wave-2 is between $66,972 - $66,226.
Support for wave-2 is between $66,972 - $66,226.
$SOL – Holding the lows, squeeze brewing?
Long
Entry: 82.5 – 84.0
SL: 79.5
TP1: 90.0
TP2: 100.0
TP3: 112.0
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $SOL here
Long
Entry: 82.5 – 84.0
SL: 79.5
TP1: 90.0
TP2: 100.0
TP3: 112.0
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $SOL here
$BTC forming a clean intraday cup and pushing into resistance near $68.8K ☕
Break and hold above this level could open the door for a continuation toward $69.5K–$70k
Break and hold above this level could open the door for a continuation toward $69.5K–$70k
$PePe Price Faces Continued Downtrend Amid Bearish Momentum.
The 1-day PEPE chart shows a prolonged downtrend, with the price declining from recent highs near $0.00000550 to the current level around $0.00000371. The price has been forming lower highs and lower lows, reflecting persistent selling pressure. Recent attempts at recovery, such as the bounce above $0.00000370, have been limited, suggesting the market remains under bearish control.
Looking at the indicators, the MACD shows a negative crossover, with the MACD line below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram is slightly improving but remains in negative territory, indicating that selling pressure is slowing but not yet reversing. The RSI is near 37.25, suggesting the token is approaching oversold conditions but not deeply oversold. This combination of MACD and RSI signals supports a cautious outlook, with potential for short-term consolidation before any meaningful upward move.
The 1-day PEPE chart shows a prolonged downtrend, with the price declining from recent highs near $0.00000550 to the current level around $0.00000371. The price has been forming lower highs and lower lows, reflecting persistent selling pressure. Recent attempts at recovery, such as the bounce above $0.00000370, have been limited, suggesting the market remains under bearish control.
Looking at the indicators, the MACD shows a negative crossover, with the MACD line below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram is slightly improving but remains in negative territory, indicating that selling pressure is slowing but not yet reversing. The RSI is near 37.25, suggesting the token is approaching oversold conditions but not deeply oversold. This combination of MACD and RSI signals supports a cautious outlook, with potential for short-term consolidation before any meaningful upward move.
$SOL
Price action suggests that a local top may be in place. The focus now shifts to the key support area, which will determine whether an upside breakout is underway or not.
#solana
Price action suggests that a local top may be in place. The focus now shifts to the key support area, which will determine whether an upside breakout is underway or not.
#solana
$JCT broke out on daily
It will outperform the market like $LYN
Buy low and have patience ✍️
It will outperform the market like $LYN
Buy low and have patience ✍️
Dusk Development Update
Yesterday we hosted an X Space with @HeinDauven (CTO) and @Neotamandua (Head of Product) to walk the community through what the team has been working on over the past few weeks. Here's a summary of the key updates, improvements, and what's ahead.
Recent Releases
The past few weeks have been incredibly productive. Here's what went live:
Hedger Alpha on DuskEVM Testnet. Our privacy module for EVM is now live on testnet, showcasing how confidential transactions work on DuskEVM with a new and improved UI/UX and transaction flow.
DUSK/USDC Pool on Uniswap V4. With USDT delisted from European exchanges under MiCA, EU users lost access to most USDT trading pairs. We deployed a $300K DUSK/USDC pool on Ethereum to provide a direct, MiCA-compliant trading route. Trading activity has been growing, and community members can also provide liquidity in the pair.
Automated Bridge Upgrade. The bridge infrastructure received a full overhaul. It's now faster, fully automated, and more reliable. The upgrade also included a complete refresh of all JavaScript dependencies to harden infrastructure. A detailed post-mortem on the earlier bridge incident will be published separately.
Documentation Overhaul. The docs received a major revamp: cleaner layout, improved content hierarchy, simplified language, and updated guides. We used the opportunity to cut the fluff and make everything easier to understand.
Rusk v1.5 Upgrade. This included multiple improvements, a new GraphQL endpoint fully adherent to GraphQL specifications, a critical security fix, and the move from Rust nightly to stable. More on that below.
Codebase and Developer Infrastructure Improvements
A significant amount of work has gone into improving the developer experience and reducing technical debt across the entire stack. These changes may be less visible to end users, but they accelerate everything going forward.
Rust Nightly to Stable. When Dusk was originally built, it required bleeding-edge Rust features that only existed in nightly builds. Those features have since been stabilized, and the entire codebase has now moved to Rust stable with the 2024 edition. This makes it significantly easier to stay up to date, reduces tooling issues, and gives external developers more flexibility when building against DuskDS.
Monorepo Split. The main Rusk repository has been restructured. User-facing components like the Web Wallet, Explorer and Genesis contracts have been extracted into their own repositories. This makes it easier for community developers to contribute, file issues against specific products, and onboard without needing to understand the full contract and WebAssembly compilation pipeline. Rust developers working on the core protocol no longer have to deal with the complexity of the Genesis contracts and their different compilation paths.
Dusk Forge. A new tool that has been applied across our own Dusk contracts, standardizing common patterns and eliminating thousands of lines of redundant code. For DuskEVM contracts on the L1 alone, there are around 15 contracts all using Forge with a shared data driver pattern. Without this standardization, the team estimates they would be maintaining thousands of additional lines of code. Updates to the shared standard now propagate automatically across all contracts.
GraphQL and HTTP Node Improvements. The GraphQL endpoint is now fully specification-compliant, replacing the previous custom payload format. The HTTP API is also being improved with proper status codes and a more ergonomic interface for developers querying blockchain data.
Archive Node and Indexing. Work is underway to expand the archive node to support data indexing in SQL databases. This is critical for developers building dashboards, explorers, or any application that needs to efficiently query historical blockchain data. The new indexing infrastructure will let developers listen to specific on-chain events, filter them, and store them in efficient queryable formats.
CLI Wallet Improvements. The Rusk wallet CLI is getting a UX refresh with a more modern command-line interface, in line with current developer tooling standards.
Security and Hardening
The team's primary focus right now is security and hardening across the entire stack.
Internal Audit. An internal audit of the full stack has been completed. The team is now in the implementation phase, addressing all findings. The work is being maintained in private repositories for security reasons and will be made public once the changes have been rolled out.
External Security Report. Last week, an external security firm reported a vulnerability that coincided with the team's own ongoing security research. This prompted an accelerated Rusk upgrade. There was no risk of fund loss, but it was important enough to act on quickly. A more detailed disclosure will follow once post-remediation checks are complete.
Hardening DuskDS. DuskEVM is built on top of DuskDS as its settlement and data availability layer. Without a hardened DuskDS, DuskEVM's security posture, finality & settlement guarantees are incomplete. The current sprint is focused on strengthening this foundation before the DuskEVM mainnet launch.
Multi-sig and Beyond. The multi-sig contract on DuskDS is one component of the broader security roadmap. Additional improvements have been made to reduce the overall security risk. Some changes will be soft forks, others hard forks.
What's Happening in Parallel
Not everyone on the team is focused on security & hardening of DuskDS. Several other developments are moving forward.
Dusk Trade. We’re using this time to further polish and improve the Dusk Trade platform experience. Significant progress has been made on both technical and legal/compliance tracks.
Cross-Chain Interoperability. Beyond the existing Chainlink CCIP integration, the team has been exploring additional cross-chain routes. Early experimentation with Hyperlane, an open-source messaging protocol, has shown promising results for enabling asset movement between DuskDS and other supported chains. This is still in the exploration phase, but the potential for expanded interoperability is significant.
Business and Legal. Progress is ongoing on the business development and legal side, particularly around partner onboarding and regulatory compliance flows. Partners remain aligned and supportive. Those aware of the security work have expressed confidence in the team's approach of taking the time to do things right. Work continues on both sides, with progress on business and legal tracks running in parallel with the technical hardening.
Team Morale and Velocity
Development velocity has accelerated noticeably since the beginning of 2026. The team addressed long-standing technical debt and tooling bottlenecks that were slowing everything down, and the results are showing in the volume and quality of commits being merged across multiple repositories.
The team structure has been tightened, with more cross-team collaboration and daily standups replacing isolated work silos. Current morale is high, driven by the visible acceleration in output and the impact of recent improvements.
What's Next
Complete the foundational hardening sprint and roll out necessary upgrades.
Once complete, begin the DuskEVM mainnet launch phase.
Continue expanding developer tooling and infrastructure.
More updates to follow. Stay tuned.
Listen to the full conversation here:
Recent Releases
The past few weeks have been incredibly productive. Here's what went live:
Hedger Alpha on DuskEVM Testnet. Our privacy module for EVM is now live on testnet, showcasing how confidential transactions work on DuskEVM with a new and improved UI/UX and transaction flow.
DUSK/USDC Pool on Uniswap V4. With USDT delisted from European exchanges under MiCA, EU users lost access to most USDT trading pairs. We deployed a $300K DUSK/USDC pool on Ethereum to provide a direct, MiCA-compliant trading route. Trading activity has been growing, and community members can also provide liquidity in the pair.
Automated Bridge Upgrade. The bridge infrastructure received a full overhaul. It's now faster, fully automated, and more reliable. The upgrade also included a complete refresh of all JavaScript dependencies to harden infrastructure. A detailed post-mortem on the earlier bridge incident will be published separately.
Documentation Overhaul. The docs received a major revamp: cleaner layout, improved content hierarchy, simplified language, and updated guides. We used the opportunity to cut the fluff and make everything easier to understand.
Rusk v1.5 Upgrade. This included multiple improvements, a new GraphQL endpoint fully adherent to GraphQL specifications, a critical security fix, and the move from Rust nightly to stable. More on that below.
Codebase and Developer Infrastructure Improvements
A significant amount of work has gone into improving the developer experience and reducing technical debt across the entire stack. These changes may be less visible to end users, but they accelerate everything going forward.
Rust Nightly to Stable. When Dusk was originally built, it required bleeding-edge Rust features that only existed in nightly builds. Those features have since been stabilized, and the entire codebase has now moved to Rust stable with the 2024 edition. This makes it significantly easier to stay up to date, reduces tooling issues, and gives external developers more flexibility when building against DuskDS.
Monorepo Split. The main Rusk repository has been restructured. User-facing components like the Web Wallet, Explorer and Genesis contracts have been extracted into their own repositories. This makes it easier for community developers to contribute, file issues against specific products, and onboard without needing to understand the full contract and WebAssembly compilation pipeline. Rust developers working on the core protocol no longer have to deal with the complexity of the Genesis contracts and their different compilation paths.
Dusk Forge. A new tool that has been applied across our own Dusk contracts, standardizing common patterns and eliminating thousands of lines of redundant code. For DuskEVM contracts on the L1 alone, there are around 15 contracts all using Forge with a shared data driver pattern. Without this standardization, the team estimates they would be maintaining thousands of additional lines of code. Updates to the shared standard now propagate automatically across all contracts.
GraphQL and HTTP Node Improvements. The GraphQL endpoint is now fully specification-compliant, replacing the previous custom payload format. The HTTP API is also being improved with proper status codes and a more ergonomic interface for developers querying blockchain data.
Archive Node and Indexing. Work is underway to expand the archive node to support data indexing in SQL databases. This is critical for developers building dashboards, explorers, or any application that needs to efficiently query historical blockchain data. The new indexing infrastructure will let developers listen to specific on-chain events, filter them, and store them in efficient queryable formats.
CLI Wallet Improvements. The Rusk wallet CLI is getting a UX refresh with a more modern command-line interface, in line with current developer tooling standards.
Security and Hardening
The team's primary focus right now is security and hardening across the entire stack.
Internal Audit. An internal audit of the full stack has been completed. The team is now in the implementation phase, addressing all findings. The work is being maintained in private repositories for security reasons and will be made public once the changes have been rolled out.
External Security Report. Last week, an external security firm reported a vulnerability that coincided with the team's own ongoing security research. This prompted an accelerated Rusk upgrade. There was no risk of fund loss, but it was important enough to act on quickly. A more detailed disclosure will follow once post-remediation checks are complete.
Hardening DuskDS. DuskEVM is built on top of DuskDS as its settlement and data availability layer. Without a hardened DuskDS, DuskEVM's security posture, finality & settlement guarantees are incomplete. The current sprint is focused on strengthening this foundation before the DuskEVM mainnet launch.
Multi-sig and Beyond. The multi-sig contract on DuskDS is one component of the broader security roadmap. Additional improvements have been made to reduce the overall security risk. Some changes will be soft forks, others hard forks.
What's Happening in Parallel
Not everyone on the team is focused on security & hardening of DuskDS. Several other developments are moving forward.
Dusk Trade. We’re using this time to further polish and improve the Dusk Trade platform experience. Significant progress has been made on both technical and legal/compliance tracks.
Cross-Chain Interoperability. Beyond the existing Chainlink CCIP integration, the team has been exploring additional cross-chain routes. Early experimentation with Hyperlane, an open-source messaging protocol, has shown promising results for enabling asset movement between DuskDS and other supported chains. This is still in the exploration phase, but the potential for expanded interoperability is significant.
Business and Legal. Progress is ongoing on the business development and legal side, particularly around partner onboarding and regulatory compliance flows. Partners remain aligned and supportive. Those aware of the security work have expressed confidence in the team's approach of taking the time to do things right. Work continues on both sides, with progress on business and legal tracks running in parallel with the technical hardening.
Team Morale and Velocity
Development velocity has accelerated noticeably since the beginning of 2026. The team addressed long-standing technical debt and tooling bottlenecks that were slowing everything down, and the results are showing in the volume and quality of commits being merged across multiple repositories.
The team structure has been tightened, with more cross-team collaboration and daily standups replacing isolated work silos. Current morale is high, driven by the visible acceleration in output and the impact of recent improvements.
What's Next
Complete the foundational hardening sprint and roll out necessary upgrades.
Once complete, begin the DuskEVM mainnet launch phase.
Continue expanding developer tooling and infrastructure.
More updates to follow. Stay tuned.
Listen to the full conversation here:
🟥🟥 BTC LIMIT SHORT TRADE 🟥🟥
ENTRY: 70042
STOP LOSS: 71867
TAKE PROFIT: Take 50% out at 66380, the rest at 62744
Leverage: 33X
$BTC is now moving inside this consolidation triangle.
Will be shorting the top of this range and taking partial profits at the bottom.
BTC and ETH are now vaguely correlated.
That means you can either take an ETH trade or a BTC trade in this situation.
But avoid taking both trades because they're correlated and that would mean you risk 2 times more.
ENTRY: 70042
STOP LOSS: 71867
TAKE PROFIT: Take 50% out at 66380, the rest at 62744
Leverage: 33X
$BTC is now moving inside this consolidation triangle.
Will be shorting the top of this range and taking partial profits at the bottom.
BTC and ETH are now vaguely correlated.
That means you can either take an ETH trade or a BTC trade in this situation.
But avoid taking both trades because they're correlated and that would mean you risk 2 times more.
Hashrate V-shaped rebound + Difficulty surges by 15% + Price halves = Miners either defect to AI or stubbornly hold on
On February 20, BTC mining difficulty surged by 14.73% to 144.4T - the largest single adjustment since China's mining ban in 2021.
Behind this number is a contradictory story.
Winter storm → Difficulty plummets → Hashrate V-shaped rebound. The winter storm in the U.S. forced miners to reduce operations, with difficulty temporarily lowered by 12%, and hashrate dropping to 826 EH/s. After the storm, miners rushed to come online, and hashrate rebounded to over 1 ZH/s. Difficulty then surged by 15%, completely offsetting the earlier decline.
But the economic calculations are completely off.
The cost to mine one BTC is approximately $84,000. The current price of BTC is $68,153. Each mined coin incurs a loss of $15,847. Hashprice has dropped to $23.9/PH/s, a multi-year low. For the vast majority of miners, this means operating at a loss.
Who is still mining? Two types of players:
Category 1: Middle Eastern miners with low electricity costs. UAE mining holds approximately $344 million in unrealized profits - they use nearly free energy, with costs far below the global average. For them, $68,000 is still profitable.
Category 2: Public mining companies defecting to AI. Bitfarms (BITF) announced a rebranding to "increase focus on AI infrastructure." Activist investor Starboard urges Riot Platforms (RIOT) to expand their AI data center business. These companies are not "mining" - they are using the shell of mining infrastructure to run AI computing businesses.
Trigger: If hashprice falls below $20/PH/s and BTC remains below $65,000 for over 2 weeks, medium-sized mining companies will be forced to sell BTC or shut down, creating a second wave of miner capitulation. Conversely, if BTC breaks through $71,693 (Glassnode key resistance level) and stabilizes, miner profit margins will turn positive, ending the selling pressure cycle.$BTC
On February 20, BTC mining difficulty surged by 14.73% to 144.4T - the largest single adjustment since China's mining ban in 2021.
Behind this number is a contradictory story.
Winter storm → Difficulty plummets → Hashrate V-shaped rebound. The winter storm in the U.S. forced miners to reduce operations, with difficulty temporarily lowered by 12%, and hashrate dropping to 826 EH/s. After the storm, miners rushed to come online, and hashrate rebounded to over 1 ZH/s. Difficulty then surged by 15%, completely offsetting the earlier decline.
But the economic calculations are completely off.
The cost to mine one BTC is approximately $84,000. The current price of BTC is $68,153. Each mined coin incurs a loss of $15,847. Hashprice has dropped to $23.9/PH/s, a multi-year low. For the vast majority of miners, this means operating at a loss.
Who is still mining? Two types of players:
Category 1: Middle Eastern miners with low electricity costs. UAE mining holds approximately $344 million in unrealized profits - they use nearly free energy, with costs far below the global average. For them, $68,000 is still profitable.
Category 2: Public mining companies defecting to AI. Bitfarms (BITF) announced a rebranding to "increase focus on AI infrastructure." Activist investor Starboard urges Riot Platforms (RIOT) to expand their AI data center business. These companies are not "mining" - they are using the shell of mining infrastructure to run AI computing businesses.
Trigger: If hashprice falls below $20/PH/s and BTC remains below $65,000 for over 2 weeks, medium-sized mining companies will be forced to sell BTC or shut down, creating a second wave of miner capitulation. Conversely, if BTC breaks through $71,693 (Glassnode key resistance level) and stabilizes, miner profit margins will turn positive, ending the selling pressure cycle.$BTC
Gold +78% vs BTC -46%: An Ultimate Stress Test of the "Digital Gold" Narrative
In October 2025, when BTC hit a historical high of $126,000, gold was still around $2,800. Four months later, gold has surged to the $5,000 mark, while BTC struggles at $68,153.
The divergence of the two is not coincidental.
Research published by Deutsche Bank on February 20 shows that when gold prices reach $5,790/ounce, global central banks' gold reserves will, for the first time, exceed their dollar reserves. Currently, central banks hold 36,000 tons of gold, valued at $6.37 trillion at $5,500. We are only 5.3% away from that critical point.
Global central banks net purchased 863 tons of gold in 2025, and in the first two months of 2026, the Top 15 central banks have already surpassed the 2,000-ton milestone in purchases. China has increased its holdings for 15 consecutive months.
Meanwhile, what has happened to BTC's "digital gold" narrative?
ETF data contradicts the narrative: BTC ETF cumulative net inflows have dropped from a high of $63 billion to $53 billion, evaporating $10 billion in four months. ETF holdings decreased from 1.36 million to 1.26 million. There was a $1.6 billion outflow in January, continuing in the first three weeks of February. Institutions are not "hodl"—they are orderly retreating using the liquidity window of ETFs.
On-chain data reveals structural deterioration: CryptoQuant's aSOPR has fallen into the 0.92-0.94 range. The same readings in 2019 and 2023 corresponded to deep correction phases. NUPL remains at 0.36, seemingly safe, but Alphractal analyst Joao Wedson points out that a real bull market will only restart when NUPL turns negative—meaning even the most steadfast holders are at a loss.
Miners are under pressure but hoarding: BTC mining costs are around $84,000, far above the current price of $68,153. Miner wallet outflows have dropped to the lowest level since May 2023—they choose not to sell, betting on a price rebound.
$BTC
In October 2025, when BTC hit a historical high of $126,000, gold was still around $2,800. Four months later, gold has surged to the $5,000 mark, while BTC struggles at $68,153.
The divergence of the two is not coincidental.
Research published by Deutsche Bank on February 20 shows that when gold prices reach $5,790/ounce, global central banks' gold reserves will, for the first time, exceed their dollar reserves. Currently, central banks hold 36,000 tons of gold, valued at $6.37 trillion at $5,500. We are only 5.3% away from that critical point.
Global central banks net purchased 863 tons of gold in 2025, and in the first two months of 2026, the Top 15 central banks have already surpassed the 2,000-ton milestone in purchases. China has increased its holdings for 15 consecutive months.
Meanwhile, what has happened to BTC's "digital gold" narrative?
ETF data contradicts the narrative: BTC ETF cumulative net inflows have dropped from a high of $63 billion to $53 billion, evaporating $10 billion in four months. ETF holdings decreased from 1.36 million to 1.26 million. There was a $1.6 billion outflow in January, continuing in the first three weeks of February. Institutions are not "hodl"—they are orderly retreating using the liquidity window of ETFs.
On-chain data reveals structural deterioration: CryptoQuant's aSOPR has fallen into the 0.92-0.94 range. The same readings in 2019 and 2023 corresponded to deep correction phases. NUPL remains at 0.36, seemingly safe, but Alphractal analyst Joao Wedson points out that a real bull market will only restart when NUPL turns negative—meaning even the most steadfast holders are at a loss.
Miners are under pressure but hoarding: BTC mining costs are around $84,000, far above the current price of $68,153. Miner wallet outflows have dropped to the lowest level since May 2023—they choose not to sell, betting on a price rebound.
$BTC
There was a point when the market started picking up and I moved a small portion of funds from Solana to @Fogo Official just to test a few trades.
Execution on Fogo was undeniably fast. Orders went through quickly, feedback was immediate. But after experimenting, I shifted most of the capital back to the more familiar ecosystem, mainly because liquidity and opportunity depth were still stronger there.
In a bull market, capital naturally gravitates toward environments with abundant profit opportunities and deep liquidity. $FOGO does have clear strengths in latency and execution quality, which can draw in traders who prioritize speed — especially market makers or arbitrage strategies. If the trading experience remains smooth and stable, allocating a portion of capital to exploit that edge makes sense.
However, attracting significant capital away from established ecosystems like Ethereum or Solana requires more than technical performance. Liquidity depth, ecosystem breadth, and sustainable profit opportunities must be compelling enough not just to bring capital in, but to keep it there.
Fogo may succeed in drawing incremental capital flows during a bull run. The real challenge lies in retaining that capital once the initial momentum fades.
@Fogo Official #Fogo $FOGO
Execution on Fogo was undeniably fast. Orders went through quickly, feedback was immediate. But after experimenting, I shifted most of the capital back to the more familiar ecosystem, mainly because liquidity and opportunity depth were still stronger there.
In a bull market, capital naturally gravitates toward environments with abundant profit opportunities and deep liquidity. $FOGO does have clear strengths in latency and execution quality, which can draw in traders who prioritize speed — especially market makers or arbitrage strategies. If the trading experience remains smooth and stable, allocating a portion of capital to exploit that edge makes sense.
However, attracting significant capital away from established ecosystems like Ethereum or Solana requires more than technical performance. Liquidity depth, ecosystem breadth, and sustainable profit opportunities must be compelling enough not just to bring capital in, but to keep it there.
Fogo may succeed in drawing incremental capital flows during a bull run. The real challenge lies in retaining that capital once the initial momentum fades.
@Fogo Official #Fogo $FOGO
$BB spot analysis
it’s planning to start reversal in between 0.025- 0.032$ and then it could reach 0.1-0.15 in long term hold
it’s planning to start reversal in between 0.025- 0.032$ and then it could reach 0.1-0.15 in long term hold
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