Bitbull Noah
Web3 Maximalist | Researcher & Analyst | Exploring the future of decentralized intelligence | Unfiltered Thoughts On-chain & Alpha Insights Crypto Stories
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Web3 is hard.
You’ll interact with thousands of accounts every single day.
Yet you’ll still feel alone.
At the end of the day, it’s all business. Most people only care about you when you have something to offer.
That’s why every real friendship you make in this space… treat it like gold.
You’ll interact with thousands of accounts every single day.
Yet you’ll still feel alone.
At the end of the day, it’s all business. Most people only care about you when you have something to offer.
That’s why every real friendship you make in this space… treat it like gold.
around 85% of market activity is now automated
you’re not trading against people anymore
back in 1997
thousands traded on physical floors
pure human vs human
then machines took over
2005 → 25%
2010 → 55%
2015 → 65%
2020 → 75%
2022 → 78%
2024 → 82%
2026 → 85%
in two decades
from minority to dominance
if you ignore this shift
you’re just liquidity
you’re not trading against people anymore
back in 1997
thousands traded on physical floors
pure human vs human
then machines took over
2005 → 25%
2010 → 55%
2015 → 65%
2020 → 75%
2022 → 78%
2024 → 82%
2026 → 85%
in two decades
from minority to dominance
if you ignore this shift
you’re just liquidity
so here’s the theory
satoshi is north korean
built btc to break the financial system
waiting for 1m per $BTC
then gonna dumps everything
satoshi is north korean
built btc to break the financial system
waiting for 1m per $BTC
then gonna dumps everything
this was supposed to be my year
and it’s already getting tested
and it’s already getting tested
mfers call crypto a scam then go apply for jobs 💀
lfg
Best Wishes!
От Bitbull Noah
this was worth $800
lesson learned never stake your tokens
lesson learned never stake your tokens
some top yuckyducks 1/1s sales
• shell rider 0.25 eth → $563
• immaculate one 0.17 eth → ($382)
• marsh wanderer 0.15 eth → ($337)
• candy chais 0.1 eth → ($225)
• arcade ice 0.0964 eth →($217)
• 8 bit blaze 0.077 eth → ($173)
• mud king 0.75 eth → ($168)
• 1/1s getting attention
which one you picking or which 1/1 you watching 👀
• shell rider 0.25 eth → $563
• immaculate one 0.17 eth → ($382)
• marsh wanderer 0.15 eth → ($337)
• candy chais 0.1 eth → ($225)
• arcade ice 0.0964 eth →($217)
• 8 bit blaze 0.077 eth → ($173)
• mud king 0.75 eth → ($168)
• 1/1s getting attention
which one you picking or which 1/1 you watching 👀
heavy days in web3
market down
nfts quiet
projects shutting down
airdrops fading
rug after rug
accounts suspensions (fear of nikita)
quantum threats emerging
everything broken
you laughed at those who sold btc at $100
in a few years
someone might laugh at you for selling too early
market down
nfts quiet
projects shutting down
airdrops fading
rug after rug
accounts suspensions (fear of nikita)
quantum threats emerging
everything broken
you laughed at those who sold btc at $100
in a few years
someone might laugh at you for selling too early
imagine when celebrities start pushing crypto nfts inside telegram
buying assets directly in chat
we’ve seen what happens when attention shifts
question is
are you positioned before that wave hits 👀
$TON
buying assets directly in chat
we’ve seen what happens when attention shifts
question is
are you positioned before that wave hits 👀
$TON
zachxbt dropped the circle usdc files
simple breakdown
circle issues usdc and has the ability to freeze funds at its own discretion
but since 2022
15+ cases over 420m in stolen usdc
where little to no action was taken
even when hacks were public in real time
requests came from victims and authorities
funds sat freezable for hours or days
pattern is clear
attackers used circle’s own bridge
moved funds over hours no intervention
in similar cases usdt froze faster
examples
drift hack 232m+ usdc moved over 6 hours no freeze
swapnet 3m sat for 2 days freeze denied
cetus 61m moved action came a month later
and many more cases
point is not capability they can act
question is
why they often didn’t
420m is just public data real number likely higher
zach’s question stands
who is circle actually serving
simple breakdown
circle issues usdc and has the ability to freeze funds at its own discretion
but since 2022
15+ cases over 420m in stolen usdc
where little to no action was taken
even when hacks were public in real time
requests came from victims and authorities
funds sat freezable for hours or days
pattern is clear
attackers used circle’s own bridge
moved funds over hours no intervention
in similar cases usdt froze faster
examples
drift hack 232m+ usdc moved over 6 hours no freeze
swapnet 3m sat for 2 days freeze denied
cetus 61m moved action came a month later
and many more cases
point is not capability they can act
question is
why they often didn’t
420m is just public data real number likely higher
zach’s question stands
who is circle actually serving
still waiting for that life changing crypto money
every campaign tells you to increase volume
but no one talks about cost trap
i tested multiple dex trading campaigns
goal was to see if consistent volume could generate any edge
after tracking swaps and costs a pattern becomes clear
most campaigns push users into repeated trading
fees slippage and spread start compounding fast
every campaign tells you to increase volume
but no one talks about this
slippage fees spread
they quietly eat your capital every trade
looks small on one swap
but repeat it enough times and it compounds fast
this is where most people lose
not in price
but in execution
in many cases outcomes are close to breakeven or negative depending on size and timing
even some pre tge campaigns
example over 6 months around 3k spent on gas and fees
final outcome around 4k or sometimes just breakeven
competition also plays a role
top wallets push high volume which compresses returns
recent example of top 1 on a platform spends around 3k in fees and receives 2.3k back
and one interesting point
outside campaigns normal swaps can cost almost nothing
or 0.01 usd
same action different environment
this is more about incentive design and competition than just fees
not saying all campaigns are bad
but worth evaluating total cost versus expected outcome before committing size
what is your experienced so far???
but no one talks about cost trap
i tested multiple dex trading campaigns
goal was to see if consistent volume could generate any edge
after tracking swaps and costs a pattern becomes clear
most campaigns push users into repeated trading
fees slippage and spread start compounding fast
every campaign tells you to increase volume
but no one talks about this
slippage fees spread
they quietly eat your capital every trade
looks small on one swap
but repeat it enough times and it compounds fast
this is where most people lose
not in price
but in execution
in many cases outcomes are close to breakeven or negative depending on size and timing
even some pre tge campaigns
example over 6 months around 3k spent on gas and fees
final outcome around 4k or sometimes just breakeven
competition also plays a role
top wallets push high volume which compresses returns
recent example of top 1 on a platform spends around 3k in fees and receives 2.3k back
and one interesting point
outside campaigns normal swaps can cost almost nothing
or 0.01 usd
same action different environment
this is more about incentive design and competition than just fees
not saying all campaigns are bad
but worth evaluating total cost versus expected outcome before committing size
what is your experienced so far???
calling this prediction market is crazy
btc/eth 5 minute up down is not an analysis it’s similar to binary gambling one point in final seconds and you lost
no structure no edge only timing luck
and then look at the rest
• elon tweet count
• aliens confirmation
• jesus timelines
this is not forecasting reality
this is attention turned into orderflow
they design markets where you think you have insight
but outcome is either random or unmodelable
this kind of setup favors bots scripts and now agents reacting faster than humans not average users like you and me
short markets → fast churn → constant fees
long markets → locked capital → zero flexibility
either way
you are the liquidity
price here does not mean truth
it only reflects what crowd is willing to bet
millions in volume
but no real informational advantage
real prediction markets should reward better data better models
clear resolution
this is different
this is narrative trading without fundamentals
not saying all prediction markets are useless
but most of this is structured participation
edge is rare here and without edge
you are just paying to play
btc/eth 5 minute up down is not an analysis it’s similar to binary gambling one point in final seconds and you lost
no structure no edge only timing luck
and then look at the rest
• elon tweet count
• aliens confirmation
• jesus timelines
this is not forecasting reality
this is attention turned into orderflow
they design markets where you think you have insight
but outcome is either random or unmodelable
this kind of setup favors bots scripts and now agents reacting faster than humans not average users like you and me
short markets → fast churn → constant fees
long markets → locked capital → zero flexibility
either way
you are the liquidity
price here does not mean truth
it only reflects what crowd is willing to bet
millions in volume
but no real informational advantage
real prediction markets should reward better data better models
clear resolution
this is different
this is narrative trading without fundamentals
not saying all prediction markets are useless
but most of this is structured participation
edge is rare here and without edge
you are just paying to play
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