CryptoMaksymus
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Prices for nitrogen fertilizers have already reached 660 dollars.
DEUTSCH BANK warns that the war in Iran is testing the role of the dollar as a currency for global oil trade
Saudi Arabia is working at the limit of its infrastructural capabilities.
Now one of the main oil routes is blocked, and the world trade in energy carriers is forced to urgently look for workarounds.
Saudi Arabia found one such route, diverted the flows to the west, to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
In just a couple of weeks, the kingdom made a serious logistical maneuver, doubling exports from this hub. In the graph below, these efforts are very impressive. Just compare how invisible this black column was before and how massive it has become now.
The key role here is played by the 1,200-kilometer trans-Arabian pipeline. It connects the eastern deposits with the western coast. Now exports through Yanbu have already exceeded 4.4 million barrels per day and are aiming for the 5 million mark. The pipe itself is capable of pumping 7 million, but the kingdom needs about two million to support its own economy - the work of oil refineries, power plants and water desalination systems.
But even these unprecedented efforts do not close the deficit completely.
Gaining momentum, Yanbu compensates for only 40% of the 15 million barrels that fell out of the world supply of oil due to the blockade of the Persian Gulf.
The total export of the Saudis is still 2 million barrels below the pre-war norm.
Dry figures of the logistical impasse:
In the Red Sea, 40 giant supertankers (each of them holds about two million barrels) are now waiting for their turn to be loaded.
A fleet with 56 million barrels of oil languishing in the Persian Gulf, which was spilled at the turn of February and March, is stuck.
Asian economies remain the main consumers of these supplies. China, India, South Korea, Pakistan and Thailand - that's where all available vessels from Yanbu are headed now.
Saudi Arabia squeezes the maximum out of its infrastructure so as not to leave markets with empty tanks, but the physical limitations of pipelines dictate their own rules.
Now one of the main oil routes is blocked, and the world trade in energy carriers is forced to urgently look for workarounds.
Saudi Arabia found one such route, diverted the flows to the west, to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
In just a couple of weeks, the kingdom made a serious logistical maneuver, doubling exports from this hub. In the graph below, these efforts are very impressive. Just compare how invisible this black column was before and how massive it has become now.
The key role here is played by the 1,200-kilometer trans-Arabian pipeline. It connects the eastern deposits with the western coast. Now exports through Yanbu have already exceeded 4.4 million barrels per day and are aiming for the 5 million mark. The pipe itself is capable of pumping 7 million, but the kingdom needs about two million to support its own economy - the work of oil refineries, power plants and water desalination systems.
But even these unprecedented efforts do not close the deficit completely.
Gaining momentum, Yanbu compensates for only 40% of the 15 million barrels that fell out of the world supply of oil due to the blockade of the Persian Gulf.
The total export of the Saudis is still 2 million barrels below the pre-war norm.
Dry figures of the logistical impasse:
In the Red Sea, 40 giant supertankers (each of them holds about two million barrels) are now waiting for their turn to be loaded.
A fleet with 56 million barrels of oil languishing in the Persian Gulf, which was spilled at the turn of February and March, is stuck.
Asian economies remain the main consumers of these supplies. China, India, South Korea, Pakistan and Thailand - that's where all available vessels from Yanbu are headed now.
Saudi Arabia squeezes the maximum out of its infrastructure so as not to leave markets with empty tanks, but the physical limitations of pipelines dictate their own rules.
If you cannot think CRITICALLY without an AI model, you become dependent on the technological giants that these models create. They control their filters and decide what exactly is the "correct" answer.
This makes you known, suggestible and vulnerable to manipulation.
This makes you known, suggestible and vulnerable to manipulation.
A quote from Dune.
"Once upon a time, people delegated thinking to machines in the hope that this would make them free. But this only allowed the people who owned the machines to enslave them."
Frank Herbert wrote these lines in 1965, but today they are more relevant than ever.
In Dune, the threat was not the machines themselves (there was no Terminator uprising in the classical sense), but the people who used these machines to control the rest.
"Once upon a time, people delegated thinking to machines in the hope that this would make them free. But this only allowed the people who owned the machines to enslave them."
Frank Herbert wrote these lines in 1965, but today they are more relevant than ever.
In Dune, the threat was not the machines themselves (there was no Terminator uprising in the classical sense), but the people who used these machines to control the rest.
The President of the Philippines declared a state of emergency in the field of energy in the country. Who is next in Asia?
Here, trading volumes jumped literally minutes before Trump's post in Truth Social
14 hours ago - DW: The US will delay the strikes for 5 days
9 hours ago - Xinhua: no, they will not delay, they have already struck.
1) Manipulations.
The Financial Times unearthed: a few minutes before Trump's statement about "productive negotiations and 5 days of delay", someone bet $580 million on the fall of oil.
After Trump's post, Brent oil fell from 110 to 99 dollars. Someone who knew the text of the post in advance earned tens of millions of dollars in 15 minutes.
2) Illusions.
Trump in Truth Social creates the illusion of diplomacy to bring down overheated market prices. After some time, Iran declares that "there were no negotiations".
The market does not understand anything, and while traders are wondering who to believe, insiders fix good profits on emotional swings (sometimes on expectations of an imminent peace, then on a new escalation).
In short, as usual, the news is chaos, on which insiders on both sides make money.
9 hours ago - Xinhua: no, they will not delay, they have already struck.
1) Manipulations.
The Financial Times unearthed: a few minutes before Trump's statement about "productive negotiations and 5 days of delay", someone bet $580 million on the fall of oil.
After Trump's post, Brent oil fell from 110 to 99 dollars. Someone who knew the text of the post in advance earned tens of millions of dollars in 15 minutes.
2) Illusions.
Trump in Truth Social creates the illusion of diplomacy to bring down overheated market prices. After some time, Iran declares that "there were no negotiations".
The market does not understand anything, and while traders are wondering who to believe, insiders fix good profits on emotional swings (sometimes on expectations of an imminent peace, then on a new escalation).
In short, as usual, the news is chaos, on which insiders on both sides make money.
Starting today (March 22, 2026), the Slovenian government has imposed temporary restrictions on all gas stations in the country:
For individuals: a maximum of 50 liters per filling.
For legal entities and trucks: up to 200 liters.
Earlier this week, private chains such as MOL and Shell already introduced their own, even tougher limits (30 liters each), but now the measure has become national.
For individuals: a maximum of 50 liters per filling.
For legal entities and trucks: up to 200 liters.
Earlier this week, private chains such as MOL and Shell already introduced their own, even tougher limits (30 liters each), but now the measure has become national.
After 48 hours, the conflict may get much worse...
Trump: "If Iran does not FULLY OPEN the Strait of Hormuz WITHOUT THREAT within 48 HOURS from this very moment, the United States of America will strike and destroy their many power plants, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST! Thank you for your attention to this issue."
Literally a few hours after Trump's post, Iran's military command (Khatam Al-Anbiya) issued an official statement: "If you destroy our power plants, we will destroy the entire energy, desalination, and IT infrastructure of the United States and its allies in the region."
Trump: "If Iran does not FULLY OPEN the Strait of Hormuz WITHOUT THREAT within 48 HOURS from this very moment, the United States of America will strike and destroy their many power plants, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST! Thank you for your attention to this issue."
Literally a few hours after Trump's post, Iran's military command (Khatam Al-Anbiya) issued an official statement: "If you destroy our power plants, we will destroy the entire energy, desalination, and IT infrastructure of the United States and its allies in the region."
Well, Cuba is on the horizon
The US Fed left the interest rate unchanged. Jerome Powell said that there will be no rate cuts until the situation with inflation improves.
why won't Asia just start buying American oil?
On paper, everything looks like a gift of fate: Middle Eastern oil (Dubai/Oman) is traded at a huge premium - $150-157 per barrel. At the same time, American WTI costs only $96.
Oil from the Gulf is insanely expensive and in short supply due to the hell in the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on infrastructure and stoppages of exports. Against this background, oil from the USA seems like the "sale of the century". But there is no mass import from the States.
Here are 4 reasons why:
1. TECHNOLOGICAL DEADLINE
Most of the refineries in Asia (China, India, South Korea, Japan) were built for decades for the "heavy" and "sulfur" oil of the Middle East. It is from it that they squeeze maximum diesel and profit. American WTI is "light" and "sweet". Switching to it means a decrease in efficiency, expensive reconfiguration of equipment or the release of a low-grade product. You're not going to fill a diesel truck with 98 gasoline, are you?
2. LOGISTICS AD
To deliver oil from the coast of the USA to Asia is a way across half the world (Panama or around Africa). Against the backdrop of world chaos, rates for tanker freight have skyrocketed. Middle Eastern oil is still closer and even logistically cheaper, if it can be transported at all (the strait is still closed).
3. CONTRACT SHACKLES
Asia is bound by ten-year contracts, shares in joint ventures and special discounts with Saudi Aramco, ADNOC and other giants. Breaking these ties means destroying investments and relationships that have been built up over generations.
4. POLITICAL BUFFER
A partial transition is already underway - some take American barrels as insurance. But volumes cannot grow at the same time. China has strategic reserves and "special" relations with Russia and Iran, which serve as a kind of security cushion.
RESULT:
The war changed the game: the oil of the East costs fabulous money, the oil of the USA (comparatively) pennies. But structural barriers do not allow Asia to make a U-turn. If the conflict drags on, then exports from the USA to Asia will grow... but don't expect it to happen in one day. The system is too clumsy for such sharp movements.
Oil from the Gulf is insanely expensive and in short supply due to the hell in the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on infrastructure and stoppages of exports. Against this background, oil from the USA seems like the "sale of the century". But there is no mass import from the States.
Here are 4 reasons why:
1. TECHNOLOGICAL DEADLINE
Most of the refineries in Asia (China, India, South Korea, Japan) were built for decades for the "heavy" and "sulfur" oil of the Middle East. It is from it that they squeeze maximum diesel and profit. American WTI is "light" and "sweet". Switching to it means a decrease in efficiency, expensive reconfiguration of equipment or the release of a low-grade product. You're not going to fill a diesel truck with 98 gasoline, are you?
2. LOGISTICS AD
To deliver oil from the coast of the USA to Asia is a way across half the world (Panama or around Africa). Against the backdrop of world chaos, rates for tanker freight have skyrocketed. Middle Eastern oil is still closer and even logistically cheaper, if it can be transported at all (the strait is still closed).
3. CONTRACT SHACKLES
Asia is bound by ten-year contracts, shares in joint ventures and special discounts with Saudi Aramco, ADNOC and other giants. Breaking these ties means destroying investments and relationships that have been built up over generations.
4. POLITICAL BUFFER
A partial transition is already underway - some take American barrels as insurance. But volumes cannot grow at the same time. China has strategic reserves and "special" relations with Russia and Iran, which serve as a kind of security cushion.
RESULT:
The war changed the game: the oil of the East costs fabulous money, the oil of the USA (comparatively) pennies. But structural barriers do not allow Asia to make a U-turn. If the conflict drags on, then exports from the USA to Asia will grow... but don't expect it to happen in one day. The system is too clumsy for such sharp movements.
THE OIL MARKET SPLIT IN HALF. TWO PRICES. TWO WORLDS. THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED YET.
→ STEP 4: GAS PRICES IN THE USA WILL EXPLODE
WTI at $96 means gasoline at $4.50–5.00 in the near future.
If the strait will be closed for another month → WTI at $120 → gasoline at $6+. This is a blow to everyone's wallet. The risk of economic recession is rising.
→ STEP 5: INFLATION STARTS TO GROW AGAIN
Oil is EVERYTHING: transport, food, plastic. What should the US Fed do? Lower rates - the risk of hyperinflation. Raising rates means sharply increasing recessionary risks. Doing nothing = stagflation.
→ STEP 6: CARDS IN IRAN'S HANDS
Iran decides whether the strait will be opened. The USA bombed them and at the same time asked to open the way. So it doesn't work. Iran has NO incentive to open the strait. Every day of the blockade is their lever of pressure on America.
→ STEP 7: WORST SCENARIO
The strait has been closed for months → oil at $200 in Asia.
US reserves are exhausted → America is losing its buffer.
World recession due to energy shock. Another 45 million people are at risk of starvation (WFP forecast).
→ STEP 7: BEST SCENARIO
The war ends in the coming weeks.
This is the most dangerous moment for global energy since 1973. The difference is that in 1973, 7% of deliveries fell out of the market. Now - 20%.
→ STEP 4: GAS PRICES IN THE USA WILL EXPLODE
WTI at $96 means gasoline at $4.50–5.00 in the near future.
If the strait will be closed for another month → WTI at $120 → gasoline at $6+. This is a blow to everyone's wallet. The risk of economic recession is rising.
→ STEP 5: INFLATION STARTS TO GROW AGAIN
Oil is EVERYTHING: transport, food, plastic. What should the US Fed do? Lower rates - the risk of hyperinflation. Raising rates means sharply increasing recessionary risks. Doing nothing = stagflation.
→ STEP 6: CARDS IN IRAN'S HANDS
Iran decides whether the strait will be opened. The USA bombed them and at the same time asked to open the way. So it doesn't work. Iran has NO incentive to open the strait. Every day of the blockade is their lever of pressure on America.
→ STEP 7: WORST SCENARIO
The strait has been closed for months → oil at $200 in Asia.
US reserves are exhausted → America is losing its buffer.
World recession due to energy shock. Another 45 million people are at risk of starvation (WFP forecast).
→ STEP 7: BEST SCENARIO
The war ends in the coming weeks.
This is the most dangerous moment for global energy since 1973. The difference is that in 1973, 7% of deliveries fell out of the market. Now - 20%.
THE OIL MARKET SPLIT IN HALF. TWO PRICES. TWO WORLDS. THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED YET.
Oil in Asia is trading at $150 per barrel. The same oil costs $100 in America. A gap of $50 on the same item.
Dubai crude - $155 (historical record).
Oman crude - $155.
Brent crude - $103.
US WTI - $96.
The difference between Asian and American oil is $50+
The IEA has just released the largest emergency volume of oil in history - 400 million barrels. The USA threw out another 172 million from the Strategic Reserve (SPR), the stocks of which are already at a minimum since the 1980s (although the war lasts only 19 days).
The Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed. The speaker of the Iranian parliament said that the strait "will NOT return to the pre-war status quo."
In 1973, the oil crisis cut off 7% of world supplies. Now it's 20%. This crisis can be THREE times worse.
A difference of 50 dollars between two oil prices is a geopolitical risk premium. China and India - the largest importers in Asia - now pay 50% MORE for the same barrel than America.
What does this mean for the market:
→ STEP 1: the double oil market is a reality.
Asia pays $150+. USA - $100, Europe - about the same.
Countries without access to Persian Gulf oil are in despair.
Countries with their own production (USA, Canada, Brazil), on the contrary, get a colossal advantage. And it seems that this gap will only grow.
→ STEP 2: CRASH OF DEMAND IN ASIA
Oil at $150 kills production. China and India will not export such a price.
Factories slow down → orders fall → supply chains break.
In South Korea, 26 ships are currently blocked in the strait. Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore - all on the brink of energy collapse.
→ STEP 3: RESERVES MEL
IEA released 400 million barrels. USA - 172 million
At the current rate of consumption, these stocks will last for weeks, not months.
When they are over, there are no more "pillows". Reserves cannot be replenished during wartime.
Oil in Asia is trading at $150 per barrel. The same oil costs $100 in America. A gap of $50 on the same item.
Dubai crude - $155 (historical record).
Oman crude - $155.
Brent crude - $103.
US WTI - $96.
The difference between Asian and American oil is $50+
The IEA has just released the largest emergency volume of oil in history - 400 million barrels. The USA threw out another 172 million from the Strategic Reserve (SPR), the stocks of which are already at a minimum since the 1980s (although the war lasts only 19 days).
The Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed. The speaker of the Iranian parliament said that the strait "will NOT return to the pre-war status quo."
In 1973, the oil crisis cut off 7% of world supplies. Now it's 20%. This crisis can be THREE times worse.
A difference of 50 dollars between two oil prices is a geopolitical risk premium. China and India - the largest importers in Asia - now pay 50% MORE for the same barrel than America.
What does this mean for the market:
→ STEP 1: the double oil market is a reality.
Asia pays $150+. USA - $100, Europe - about the same.
Countries without access to Persian Gulf oil are in despair.
Countries with their own production (USA, Canada, Brazil), on the contrary, get a colossal advantage. And it seems that this gap will only grow.
→ STEP 2: CRASH OF DEMAND IN ASIA
Oil at $150 kills production. China and India will not export such a price.
Factories slow down → orders fall → supply chains break.
In South Korea, 26 ships are currently blocked in the strait. Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore - all on the brink of energy collapse.
→ STEP 3: RESERVES MEL
IEA released 400 million barrels. USA - 172 million
At the current rate of consumption, these stocks will last for weeks, not months.
When they are over, there are no more "pillows". Reserves cannot be replenished during wartime.
China has just surrounded Taiwan.
Few are ready for what will happen to the world if China moves to Taiwan right now.
And why shouldn't he do it? All eyes are on Iran. Nobody looks at the Pacific Ocean.
While all the military power of the USA is focused on the Middle East - China ALREADY simply surrounded Taiwan.
- 26 warplanes are circling over the island.
– 7 warships around the island
- And all this is happening RIGHT NOW, while the world looks at the Strait of Hormuz.
Why is Taiwan even more important to the global economy than Iran?
- Taiwan produces 90% of the most advanced chips in the world.
- Every iPhone, every AI-chip, every military guidance system is TAIWAN.
TSMC alone is worth more to the world economy than the entire Strait of Hormuz.
- Taiwan has energy reserves for 11 days. ELEVEN.
– If China starts a blockade, chip supplies will die in WEEKS.
– No chips = no cars, no phones, no medical equipment, no weapon systems, no AI (on which the entire stock market rests)
There is only ONE aircraft carrier group in the USA in the Pacific Ocean. The rest? Deployed in the Gulf.
China is not stupid. He sees Trump asking NATO and allies like Japan to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Oh, he sees how the USA burns stocks of interceptor missiles at $4 million each in exchange for drones for several tens of thousands. He sees the U.S. military distracted as much as it hasn't been since World War II.
If China moves to Taiwan while the USA is locked in Iran, the world economy will suffer even more.
Oil crisis + chip crisis + two wars at the same time = peace that no one living today has ever seen.
Few are ready for what will happen to the world if China moves to Taiwan right now.
And why shouldn't he do it? All eyes are on Iran. Nobody looks at the Pacific Ocean.
While all the military power of the USA is focused on the Middle East - China ALREADY simply surrounded Taiwan.
- 26 warplanes are circling over the island.
– 7 warships around the island
- And all this is happening RIGHT NOW, while the world looks at the Strait of Hormuz.
Why is Taiwan even more important to the global economy than Iran?
- Taiwan produces 90% of the most advanced chips in the world.
- Every iPhone, every AI-chip, every military guidance system is TAIWAN.
TSMC alone is worth more to the world economy than the entire Strait of Hormuz.
- Taiwan has energy reserves for 11 days. ELEVEN.
– If China starts a blockade, chip supplies will die in WEEKS.
– No chips = no cars, no phones, no medical equipment, no weapon systems, no AI (on which the entire stock market rests)
There is only ONE aircraft carrier group in the USA in the Pacific Ocean. The rest? Deployed in the Gulf.
China is not stupid. He sees Trump asking NATO and allies like Japan to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Oh, he sees how the USA burns stocks of interceptor missiles at $4 million each in exchange for drones for several tens of thousands. He sees the U.S. military distracted as much as it hasn't been since World War II.
If China moves to Taiwan while the USA is locked in Iran, the world economy will suffer even more.
Oil crisis + chip crisis + two wars at the same time = peace that no one living today has ever seen.
You know what I realized, I went through a bunch of videos on YouTube today...
90 percent of the content (not only related to the war) is propaganda, deliberate or unconscious distortion of facts.
And because of generative artificial intelligence, it becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish what is real and what is not. The very concept of "fact" now requires proof.
The same war in Iran was overgrown with a huge number of AI-generated photos and videos. Nothing like this has ever happened in history.
Something definitely needs to be done with all this. Come up with some kind of Proof of Reality (hello blockchain).
Well, for now, filter the information more carefully. I address this advice primarily to myself as a content maker.
90 percent of the content (not only related to the war) is propaganda, deliberate or unconscious distortion of facts.
And because of generative artificial intelligence, it becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish what is real and what is not. The very concept of "fact" now requires proof.
The same war in Iran was overgrown with a huge number of AI-generated photos and videos. Nothing like this has ever happened in history.
Something definitely needs to be done with all this. Come up with some kind of Proof of Reality (hello blockchain).
Well, for now, filter the information more carefully. I address this advice primarily to myself as a content maker.
The authorities say that all these processes are natural. But, looking at these graphs, it seems that they lie a little.
In my opinion, one concrete solution is visible here, which spoils the life of the middle class more and more every year.
Graphs below 🔽
In my opinion, one concrete solution is visible here, which spoils the life of the middle class more and more every year.
Graphs below 🔽
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