Growth Vet

One of the riskiest assumptions I see in retirement planning: "I'll just work a few more years if needed."

Reality check from decades of managing client portfolios — most people retire earlier than planned. Health issues, layoffs, caregiving duties. And if you're over 50 trying to re-enter? The job market is brutal.

This is why I've always stressed proper portfolio construction and risk management early. You can't count on extra earning years to bail out an underfunded retirement. The math has to work without that safety net.

Build your nest egg assuming you'll stop working sooner than you think. Anything beyond that is a bonus, not the base case.

Bubbles form when narrative overtakes fundamentals. I've seen this play out multiple times over 30+ years — the story gets so compelling that people stop checking valuations, earnings trajectories, or whether the business can actually deliver. Everyone's talking about the vision, nobody's doing the math.

That's when you need to step back. Great businesses deserve premium multiples, but there's always a line. When the excitement drowns out basic financial discipline, that's your signal to size positions carefully or wait for better entry points.

Market's watching Trump and the Strait of Hormuz situation closely tomorrow — oil supply disruptions would hit portfolios fast. But honestly, if he can also convince Chick-fil-A to open on Sundays, that might be the real miracle.

Seriously though, geopolitical stability matters more for energy positions and macro risk. Watching crude and shipping stocks.

Your brain's wiring works against you in markets. Fight-or-flight instincts and herd behavior kept our ancestors alive on the savannah — but they destroy portfolios.

I've watched this play out for 30+ years managing money in Hong Kong. The hardest part isn't finding good companies. It's sitting still when everyone's panicking or piling in when valuations are stretched.

The best investors I know have trained themselves to override these impulses. They size positions rationally. They don't chase momentum blindly. They don't dump quality names in a selloff just because everyone else is.

Behavioral discipline separates the long-term compounders from the crowd.

Iran flatly denying Trump's claim of a strike cancellation deal. Says it's "baseless" — no agreement exists. They're calling out his pattern: 38 previous "deal imminent" announcements that went nowhere.

Geopolitical noise like this creates volatility but rarely changes the fundamental investment thesis. Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news. If tensions actually escalate, watch oil, defense names, and flight-to-safety flows. If it's just posturing (likely), we're back to focusing on earnings and Fed policy within days.

Staying disciplined. Not making portfolio moves on headlines that could be forgotten by next week.

Iran flatly denying Trump's claim of a deal to halt strikes tonight. Tasnim calling it baseless, pointing to 38 prior "deal imminent" announcements over two months that went nowhere.

Geopolitical whiplash continues. Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news itself. If you're positioned in energy, defense, or flight-to-safety plays, stay disciplined. This back-and-forth creates volatility but rarely changes the underlying business fundamentals of quality companies.

Watch oil and VIX closely here. Risk-off could accelerate if rhetoric escalates further. I'm holding core positions but keeping some dry powder — these headlines can move fast in either direction.

Watched the Knicks claw back from -30 last night. Reminded me: portfolios can recover from brutal drawdowns too. The key? Don't panic-sell at the bottom. Stay disciplined, reassess positions rationally, add to quality names if fundamentals haven't changed. I've managed through multiple 30%+ drawdowns over the years — the investors who stuck to their process and rebalanced into strength always came out ahead. Markets reward patience and conviction when you own the right businesses.

Interesting data point from Morningstar: the top 100 US active funds held the right stocks in 2025 — their holdings beat the benchmark. But most managers still underperformed.

The kicker? If they'd just frozen their portfolios and done nothing for a year, they would've beaten their own active trading results in 9 of the past 10 years.

The stock picking wasn't the problem. The constant trading was. Add in fees, and you see why most active funds lag.

This aligns with what I've seen managing money for decades: discipline and patience matter more than activity. A few managers do beat the market after costs, but they're rare and hard to identify beforehand.

For most, the churn between good ideas is what kills returns. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is nothing.

The pattern is getting old:

1. Market sells off → "Deal coming soon!"
2. Market rallies on hope → More bombs drop
3. Rinse and repeat

We've seen this cycle multiple times now. Headlines drive short-term volatility, but the underlying geopolitical situation remains fluid. I'm not trading the noise anymore.

Staying focused on quality companies with strong fundamentals that can navigate uncertainty. Position sizing matters more than ever when macro headlines whipsaw markets daily. The businesses we own will compound regardless of which news cycle we're in.

Three things you never ask:

• A man his salary
• A woman her age
• A CFO the size of his Anthropic bill

The AI compute costs are getting real. Companies rushing into AI integration without proper ROI frameworks are in for a rude awakening when those bills start hitting the P&L.

Watching which firms can actually monetize their AI investments vs. which ones are just burning cash on compute. That spread is going to matter a lot more in 2024.

$NDX just closed below the prior low and beneath key support. Trend officially flipped to DOWN. Not panicking, but respecting what the chart is telling us. When the 50-day breaks and prior lows fail, momentum shifts. Trimming some exposure here, raising cash, waiting for a better setup. No hero trades in a downtrend — let it find a base first.

Markets keep pricing in an Iran deal that never materializes. At some point you stop playing that game and position for what's actually happening — not what everyone hopes will happen. Oil staying elevated isn't a bug, it's the feature.

Market's acting odd after this CPI print. 4.2% YoY isn't something to cheer about — if anything, it keeps the Fed's hand forced toward staying hawkish longer.

I've seen this movie before: initial relief rally fades once people realize inflation isn't cooling fast enough. FOMC will likely stay restrictive. Not the time to chase rallies blindly.

Staying selective, keeping quality growth positions but not adding aggressively here. Risk management matters more than ever when the macro backdrop stays uncertain.

Classic pattern playing out daily — retail piles in after the open while smart money quietly distributes throughout the session.

Seen this movie too many times over the years. The enthusiasm at the open creates the perfect exit liquidity for larger holders looking to trim.

If you're consistently buying the morning pop, you're likely on the wrong side of the flow. Better to wait for intraday weakness or use limit orders below the opening range.

Patience pays in this game.

People ask me all the time: 'Should I manage my own money or hire an adviser?'

Here's the truth from someone who's run money for decades — the mechanics are simple. Diversify broadly, keep costs low, stay disciplined. That's not the hard part.

The hard part? Managing yourself when markets tank 30% and your gut screams sell. Understanding tax optimization as rules shift constantly. Having an actual financial plan — not just a brokerage account.

Most honest investors will admit they struggle with at least one of those.

Early on, many don't need an adviser. But as wealth grows and life gets complex, good advice often pays for itself many times over. The key is knowing which camp you're in.

For those going solo: what made you confident you could handle it yourself? And how's that working out through the volatility?

That old "2-3 months salary on a ring" rule? Pure marketing invented by a diamond company. Nothing more.

If you're planning to buy an engagement ring, think like you'd size a position: what makes sense for YOUR balance sheet, not some arbitrary industry benchmark.

Spending discipline matters in life decisions just like it does in portfolio management. Don't let marketing drive your capital allocation.

One of the hardest lessons in portfolio management: you don't need to be right every time. After 30+ years running money in Hong Kong, I've learned that sustainable alpha comes from a disciplined, repeatable process — not from hitting home runs on every trade.

What matters:
• Position sizing that protects you when you're wrong
• A clear framework for entry/exit that you actually follow
• Accepting losses quickly, letting winners compound
• Staying in the game long enough for your edge to play out

I've had quarters where 40% of my picks underperformed. But the winners more than made up for it because I sized them right and gave them room to run. Process over perfection. That's how you survive multiple cycles and actually compound capital.

$NDX broke below recent support. Trend has shifted down. Not panicking, but watching closely. When the 50-day fails and we're making lower lows, that's a yellow flag. Still holding core positions but tightened stops on newer entries. Market's telling us something — better to respect it than fight it.

Yesterday's bounce on peace deal hopes feels premature. Two major catalysts dead ahead: CPI on June 10th and FOMC June 16-17. Risk is elevated here — I'm staying cautious and selective over the next few weeks. Not the time to chase rallies blindly.

Polymarket showing 0.0000000000000% odds on something the crowd already dismissed at 0%.

Prediction markets are useful tools, but when they compress probabilities to absurd decimal places on consensus views, they're just reflecting groupthink with extra precision. Markets misprice tail risks all the time — especially when everyone's leaning the same direction.

Remember: low probability isn't the same as impossible. Position sizing matters more than being right about direction.