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A historic thaw in US-Iran relations, marked by a cease-fire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a sharp market rally, sending $BTC close to $77k and $ETH above $2.1k.
I see this as a geopolitical catalyst that briefly redirects risk-off capital into crypto, positioning digital assets as a hedge against energy-market volatility
The broader macro story reflects a shift from conflict-driven fear to a wave of short-term optimism. Still, the framework for peace remains delicate, with unresolved nuclear negotiations and ongoing regional tensions leaving room for renewed instability.
While I remain constructive on near-term momentum, I’m more cautious about the sustainability of the rally over a longer horizon.
The key market lesson is clear: credible de-escalation in the Middle East can significantly boost crypto markets, but that momentum can fade quickly if geopolitical uncertainty resurfaces.
$BTC continues to struggle around the $77.75k resistance zone, keeping upside momentum capped for now.
What’s notable, though, is that sellers still haven’t been able to trigger a meaningful pullback.
Price has been consolidating just beneath resistance for hours, and when the market keeps pressing against a level without a sharp rejection, it often signals growing breakout pressure.
If $BTC manages a clean move above $77.75k, there’s a strong chance price quickly pushes into the liquidity resting higher.
For now, resistance is still holding, but with this type of compression, it’s not a level I’d feel confident shorting against