I purchased 1st tier of #Bitcoin at a cost of $59,800.
I also purchased 1st tier of #ETH at a cost of $1,595. I will be making tiered purchases. Those who don't want a long-term (1-2 year) investment shouldn't bother.
🚨 #Solana has broken below a significant support level. #SOL has broken below $68, which is both a range support and a 0.236 Fibonacci support level. Its next targets will be $54 and $39. I think #Altcoin s shouldn't be bought until #Bitcoin finds a bottom. $SOL
Increased XRP Long Trades Strengthen the Likelihood of a Long Squeeze
At first glance, it appears that leverage usage is rising again while the price is falling. The #XRP price has fallen from approximately $1.40 to the $1.17 region. The Estimated Leverage Ratio has increased from 0.13 to 0.18 in recent weeks. The Funding ratio is predominantly in negative territory. This indicates that many traders opened long positions at the bottom. Therefore, many investors may lose money with a long squeeze.
According to the chart, it is clear that the downside risk will continue in the short term. Because leverage is increasing while the price is falling. This is generally not a healthy structure. Funding is negative. Although it shows a high concentration of short positions in the market, the inability of the price to react indicates weakness. ATR is at historical lows. Volatility is severely squeezed. Such a drop in ATR usually indicates that a major downward move is approaching.
According to the price structure in the chart, the first strong support is at the $1.10 - $1.15 level. Currently, the price is already just above this region. The second support level is $1-$1.05. This area, acting as psychological support, could see a concentration of buyers. Below $1, investors may begin panic selling. If leveraged long positions start to be liquidated, the price could quickly fall below $1.
The chart shows the Estimated Leverage Ratio turning below 0.18, Funding becoming sharply negative and then neutral, and the price holding in the $1.10-$1.15 region, suggesting that the price has now found its bottom. However, this chart doesn't definitively indicate a bottom has been found. On the contrary, it shows that there are still uncleared long positions in the market due to increased leverage during the price drop. Therefore, a liquidation wave is possible in the short term. $XRP
I said the Total Chart would also fall. It formed a bull trap above the range and initiated the decline. I expect this decline to reach the 2.06T region. After that, there might be a rebound. This means we will see a further decline in the crypto market for some time. #total #Bitcoin
Who Will Win: Whales Selling, Small Investors Buying
This chart shows investor behavior and on-chain psychology more than the #Ethereum price. Especially when Accumulating Retail Address SOPR and NUPL are examined together they give important signals regarding a potential market downturn. The chart shows increases in Accumulating Retail Address near historical peaks particularly at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. In the final stages of cycles the most intense buying usually comes from small investors. Historically, periods when everyone is buying while whales sell are common in the market. Therefore high retail accumulation alone is not a guarantee of a rise. SOPR has been moving around the 1 level for a long time. This indicates that investors are unable to sell at a profit, and the influx of new money into the market is weak. The fact that SOPR is constantly stuck around 1 usually points to an unstable market structure. If SOPR permanently falls below 1 investors may start selling at a loss, and selling pressure could accelerate. NUPL data currently shows reduced profits. However, this also indicates that there is still a reserve of profit that can be sold in the market. In other words, if a large sell-off occurs, the downside potential doesn't seem entirely exhausted. Price strength isn't building up as accumulation increases. The chart shows record levels of retail accumulation and an increasing number of accumulating addresses recently. Despite this, there's no strong upward movement in the SOPR. This sometimes means that if buying pressure isn't enough to push the price up there are strong sell-offs on the other side. The chart shows that small investors have historically accumulated ETH at a very high rate with the recent decline. The SOPR doesn't confirm a strong bull market. Additional selling potential exists in the event of a NUPL decline. Despite increased buying appetite, whales are selling in the market. Especially if the SOPR falls below 1 and NUPL accelerates downwards the risk of a deeper correction for ETH could significantly increase. $ETH
Ethereum muazzam bir düşen trend yapısı oluşturdu ve bu trendi asla ihlal etmiyor. Ben #Ethereum ' u hiçbir zaman sevemedim. Tercihim hep Bitcoin oldu ama bu düşüşle birlikte #ETH de alacağım.
Destekler: 🔺1765$ ( Hacimli kırılım gelmezse alıma başlayacağım ilk seviye) 🔺1350$ 🔺950$ Bu aralığı kademeli alım için değerlendirmeyi düşünüyorum. Ancak şunu söylemeliyim ki son durak 950$ yazdım diye illa ki fiyat buraya kadar inecek anlamını taşımıyor. Sadece benim çalışmalarıma göre çok büyük bir düşüş yaşarsak maksimum görebileceğimiz seviye olacağını düşünüyorum. Bu yüzden de kademeli alım candır. Dibi kimse bilemez.
🚨 BITCOIN BUYING TIME IS APPROACHING!!! For months, I've been warning about this decline by combining technical and on-chain analysis. Those who were patient and waited are happy now. What path will we follow from here?
#Bitcoin Important Supports: 🔺$64,800 (Important support. The first level we will start buying at if there is no high-volume breakout) 🔺$57,800
🔺$51,750
🔺$41,500 (Last buying zone) after that, wait. Of course, it's not correct to place orders at these levels precisely. A margin of error of a few thousand is quite normal. This doesn't mean it will definitely fall to $41,500. That's why staggered buying is important. None of us can know exactly where it will turn around. $BTC
The chart shows Global M2 reaching new highs, approximately $118 trillion. This indicates that central banks are continuing to expand the money supply overall, rather than withdrawing liquidity from the system. The negative growth seen in 2022 was a period of significant liquidity tightening. However, the annual growth rate has recently risen again to around 10%. This rate is not historically low. On the contrary, it signals that global liquidity has entered a new expansion phase. The crisis signal of 2022 is not visible today. In 2022, the Fed was aggressively raising interest rates. M2 growth had fallen into negative territory. There was stress in the bond market. Crypto and technology stocks experienced sharp sell-offs. The chart today shows the exact opposite. M2 growth is positive. The money supply is at a record level. Liquidity is expanding. Therefore, when considered alone, the chart does not signal a global liquidity crisis similar to 2022. According to this graph, the likelihood of a serious global monetary squeeze in the next 3-6 months seems low. This is because monetary squeezes usually begin when M2 growth turns negative, followed by pressure on risky assets. Currently, however, the growth rate is rising. However, this graph only shows liquidity. Factors such as unsustainable government debt, stress in the banking system, geopolitical conflicts, energy shocks, and inflation spiraling out of control could also cause a crisis. Even if these things happen, the current Global M2 graph shows that central banks are continuing to support the system rather than tighten it. The world economy is currently in a period of liquidity expansion, not liquidity contraction. Therefore, relying solely on Global M2 data, the likelihood of a global monetary squeeze or a systemic crisis similar to 2008 does not seem high in the near future. On the contrary, the graph points to a supportive macroeconomic environment for #Bitcoin, #crypto, #stocks, and commodities in the medium term. Given this situation, why don't we feel this monetary expansion?
Fear Reigns in the Market The news of Strategy's sale of 32 #BTC caused strong headwinds in the crypto markets. In fact, considering the company's total BTC holdings, it's not a direct price-determining factor in the market. Therefore, the metrics we see in the chart are more helpful in understanding general market behavior and investor psychology.
The Fund Flow Ratio does not support a decline or selling pressure. The Fund Flow Ratio is currently around 0.01, close to the lower band of the recent period. Therefore, in terms of on-chain data, it cannot be said that the Strategy sale brought a heavy sell-off to the market.
NUPL is still in the positive profit zone at 0.27. However, it is important to note that NUPL has been sloping downwards since mid-May. This indicates that investor profits are starting to erode. So there is no panic selling, but momentum is weakening.
MVRV is hovering around 1.36. The current level seems quite reasonable compared to past cycles. Therefore, the MVRV side does not confirm the formation of a major peak.
So if everything is positive, why this decline?
There's a clear negative divergence between the #bitcoin price on #Binance and the indicators. From the end of April, the price rose to the $80-85,000 region. NUPL and MVRV also rose. However, in the last few weeks, the price has been falling, NUPL has been falling, and MVRV has been falling. This indicates that profit-taking has begun. Investors' risk appetite has been reduced to a minimum. The months-long accumulation of bullish expectations in the market has destroyed this momentum.
In short, the downward movement of NUPL and MVRV for several weeks shows that the short-term upward momentum has been lost. If the price fails to hold in the $70-72,000 region, investor profits may erode faster, and a drop in NUPL below 0.20 could increase selling pressure. Strategy's sale of $32 BTC alone doesn't generate a bearish signal. However, it is causing other investors to take profits as well. $BTC
BTC.d has started to decline. This drop could continue up to 59%, but this decline isn't affecting all #altcoins. In your opinion, which sector is the money leaving #Bitcoin going to? $BTC
June 6th Warning! Bitcoin has closed June with almost equal increases and decreases since 2013.
🟢 Positive close: 8 times 🔴 Negative close: 5 times 📈 Strongest June: 2013 (+27.1%) and 2016 (+26.8%) 📉 Worst June: 2022 (-37.3%)
📊 The average return for June has historically been around 0% to 2%, meaning it's not one of #BTC's strongest seasons. #Bitcoin has generally spent June accumulating.
The noteworthy point is the distribution of the last June 6th: 2019 (+26.2%) → 2020 (-3.4%) → 2021 (-6.0%) → 2022 (-37.3%) → 2023 (+12.0%) → 2024 (-7.1%) → 2025 (+2.4%) $BTC What kind of June do you think we will have this year?
💰 #XAUUSD held onto its $4400 support. Now its test will be to break its downtrend. Do you think it will reach $5000 or $4100 first? -I don't think it can rise much without taking the liquidity at $4100. $XAU
Could XRP Have Completed Its Search for a Bottom? Examining the chart with XRP Price, Exchange Supply Ratio, NVT Ratio, and Awesome Oscillator together reveals several important conclusions about the XRP price:
1- The price continues its consolidation period. XRP price has settled into a horizontal band around $1.33, leaving behind sharp fluctuations. Unlike the sharp ups and downs of previous months, the price is consolidating within a narrow range.
2- The supply pressure on exchanges appears to be decreasing. The exchange supply ratio has shown a significant downward trend since May. The decrease in the XRP supply ratio on exchanges indicates that investors are withdrawing their assets from exchanges and moving them to cold wallets. This suggests that selling pressure on the price has eased and is preparing the ground for an upward movement in the medium term.
3- The decrease in the NVT ratio can be interpreted as a signal of undervaluation. The chart shows a sharp drop of -23.73% in the NVT ratio to 151.53. A decrease in the NVT (Network Transaction Volume) indicates high transaction volume and economic activity on the network compared to the price. In cryptocurrency analysis, low NVT is generally interpreted as the asset's current price being undervalued or at its bottom. It supports the idea that the price is not overvalued.
4- The AO (Average Overflow) indicator suggests weakening momentum and the prevalence of indecision. The AO is moving just below the zero line, with relatively small red and green bars. The fact that the AO bars are so close to zero and small confirms that there is neither a strong bullish nor a strong bearish momentum dominating the market. It indicates that the price is seeking a breakout to find direction in the short term, and the current $1.33 level has become a significant equilibrium point.
Based on these inferences, the chart generally shows that XRP is in a consolidation process where its price has completed or is about to complete its search for a bottom. $XRP
Ethereum Will Continue to Under Downward Pressure When the chart is examined together with the Ethereum price, Binance Funding Rates, Estimated Leverage Ratio, and RSI data, it is seen that the market is currently somewhat more prone to downward pressure.
The first point that stands out is the price's weakness in recent weeks, consistently peaking at lower levels. There has been a significant loss of volume on the price side, especially since mid-May. Despite this, it is important that the Estimated Leverage Ratio remains at quite high levels. The fact that the yellow line is currently around 0.74 indicates that leverage usage is still high in the market. Normally, in strong upward movements, leverage increases are supported by the price. However, here, while leverage remains high, the price is moving downwards. This creates a weak structure, indicating that the market is being driven more by derivative positions than healthy spot demand.
The Funding Rate also supports this. The blue line generally remains in the positive region. This means that there is still a long majority in the market. However, the price is not strengthening during the same period. This divergence is important because the inability of the price to react while upward expectations continue in the market usually indicates a weakening of buying power.
The RSI data in the lower panel also confirms the loss of momentum. The RSI is currently around 31, quite close to the oversold region. This indicates that selling pressure is dominant in the short term. However, the RSI has not yet generated a strong recovery signal. The downward slope in the RSI, coupled with the price's horizontal-downward consolidation, shows that momentum is still negative.
In summary: * Leverage is high, * Long positions continue to dominate, * However, the price is unable to generate strength, * The RSI shows weak momentum.
This generally indicates that downward pressure in the market is still dominant in the short term. $ETH #Ethereum(ETH)
Bitcoin'in bayramda yükseldiğini ben hiç görmedim. Bakalım bu yıl bir sürpriz yapabilecek mi? $BTC Kanal içinde 72750$-81500$ aralığında hareketini sürdürüyor. Bu aralıkta scalp trade güzel kazandırdı ve kazandırmaya devam ediyor. Kırılım gelene kadar bu aralığı değerlendirebilirsiniz. Hep söylediğim gibi kırılımı aşağı yönlü bekliyorum. #Bitcoin
Borsalardaki Stablecoin Reservi Tarihi Zirveye Yakın Grafikte Stablecoin Exchange Reserve, Bitcoin fiyatı, Bitcoin Exchange Reserve, SOPR göstergesi birlikte okunduğunda piyasada şu an için orta–uzun vadede yeniden güç toplanan bir yükseliş zemini oluştuğu görülüyor. Ancak kısa vadede hâlâ temkinli bir geçiş süreci devam ediyor.
Özellikle en dikkat çekici veri stablecoin reserve tarafı. Borsalardaki stablecoin miktarı hâlâ tarihsel olarak çok yüksek seviyelerde bulunuyor. Bu durum piyasada ciddi miktarda bekleyen alım gücü olduğuna işaret ediyor. Yani yatırımcılar tamamen piyasadan çıkmış değil; aksine büyük sermaye hâlâ stablecoin olarak kenarda bekliyor.
Geçmiş döngülerde, stablecoin rezervleri yükselirken, Bitcoin rezervleri düşmeye devam ettiğinde, genellikle birkaç ay sonra güçlü yükseliş dönemleri başlamış.
Grafikte @@[hashtag][{"content":{"tag":"Bitcoin"},"type":"hashtag"}]#Bitcoin@@ exchange reserve tarafı hâlâ görece düşük seyrediyor. Bu önemli çünkü BTC’nin borsalarda az kalması satış baskısının sınırlı olduğunu gösteriyor. Yani büyük yatırımcılar coinlerini borsaya yığmıyor.
SOPR tarafı ise şu an kritik bölgede. Gösterge 1 seviyesine çok yakın. Bu durum piyasada ne aşırı kâr realizasyonu, ne de panik satış olduğunu gösteriyor. Yani piyasa bir denge evresinde.
Bütün yapı birlikte okunduğunda kısa vadede dalgalı ve kararsız hareketler sürebilir, ancak stablecoin likiditesi hâlâ çok güçlü olduğu için büyük düşüşlerin kalıcı olması zor görünüyor, özellikle yeni sermaye girişleri başladığında bu rezervler yeniden kripto alımına dönebilir. $BTC
Gold looks set to collect liquidation at $4100 before heading towards $5000. The bloody holiday will also be felt in the markets. This could be the last buying opportunity of the summer. $XAU
Unfortunately, silver failed to break through the $95 resistance level again this week. It doesn't seem likely to advance without taking the liquidation accumulated around $60. If it closes below the trend line this week, the holiday period will likely see a decline. In my opinion, this will be a buying opportunity. We will experience the final decline. $XAG
Xrp Long Squeeze'e Hazırlanıyor Open Interest, Market Cap, NVT Ratio bu üç veri birlikte değerlendirildiğinde kısa vadede XRP’de yukarı yönlü baskının arttığı, ancak hareketin henüz tam sağlıklı olmadığı görülüyor.
Özellikle dikkat çeken nokta Open Interest tarafı. Open Interest son günlerde yeniden sert biçimde yükselmeye başlamış. Bu durum vadeli piyasada pozisyon birikiminin arttığını ve traderların yeniden agresif şekilde işlem açtığını gösteriyor. Normalde Open Interest yükselirken fiyat da destek alıyorsa piyasa yukarı hareket üretmeye daha yatkın olur. Ancak burada risk NVT Ratio'nun hâlâ çok yüksek ve düzensiz spike’lar üretmeye devam ediyor. NVT’nin yükselmesi, ağ değerinin zincir üzerindeki gerçek işlem aktivitesine göre pahalı kalmaya başladığını gösterir. Yani fiyat yükselse bile temel kullanım aynı hızda büyümüyor olabilir. Bu da yükselişlerin kısa süreli olmasına yol açar.
Market Cap tarafında ise güçlü bir çöküş yok. Market Cap'in yatay kalması, büyük yatırımcıların henüz agresif yatırım yapmadığını düşündürüyor. Bu da aşağı yönlü sert bir çöküş ihtimalini kısa vadede azaltıyor.
Kısa vadede yön biraz daha yukarı eğilimli görünüyor. Open Interest artışı fiyatı yukarı taşımaya çalışıyor. Ancak NVT aşırı yüksek olduğu için yükselişler sağlıksız ve sert volatil olabilir. Bu nedenle senaryo daha çok önce yukarı sıkıştırma, sonra sert düzeltme riski şeklinde duruyor.
Özellikle Open Interest yükselmeye devam ederken fiyat yeni zirve üretemezse, bu durum long squeeze riskini artırır ve #XRP ’de ani aşağı fitiller görülebilir. Buna karşılık fiyat OI artışıyla birlikte dirençleri kırarsa kısa süreli güçlü bir momentum oluşabilir. $XRP