$BTC everyone's bullish on the ceasefire news, but lets check the price action:
- sitting at the top of the range - previous deviation reacted to weekly fvg, leaving daily fvg open - now price reacts to that daily fvg and gets rejected 3 days in a row - 1h shift just happened
$69k mid-range is the first target, $64-65k range bottom is the real target if that fails
news moves sentiment, not always structure. until btc breaks and holds above $73k, this looks more like a distribution zone than a breakout
- the two year range still intact - price just swept the bottom boundary - tested opposing weekly fvg - left huge bullish fvg on the way up with weekly shift
the nearest fractal high is the obvious draw now. bad news doesn't always mean bad structure
bear market has obviously started in october and we have a year to find a bottom. i suppose it will be in a region between $48-60k and only after that we can see the so long awaited rise to $150k and higher
---monthly: short term monthly close looks bullish, but long term still expect euro to test 1.10 level
---weekly: taking out a fractal at 1.165 looks like a good target. beyond that there is just a huge liquidity compression and a lot of levels on lower timeframes
---daily: daily chart looks bullish for now - a nice reaction from the daily fvg, with clear targets in a form of previous fractals at 1.1656 and 1.1668. previous day close with a huge wick below add points towards potential longs
---4h: so far eur respects bullish order flow. i expect a continuation of the bullish move after testing 4h fvg or 4h ifvg below. will look for long positions within these areas
---monthly: so far price is stuck in a range, with a month closed sweeping closest fractal - short term bearish. a bullish fvg below makes a lot of sense as the target for next week or two.
after that i'd expect the price to continue moving up into the monthly bearish fvg
---weekly: apart from the fractal that formed monthly bullish fvg, there are no targets below. instead there is huge compression.
next week i expect a bullish monthly fvg test and then expansion into global target - monthly fvg
---daily: inversion appeared and was tested on friday. i have multiple scenarios for the next week:
- continue going down - take out friday high + drop - test daily bearish fvg and then drop
---4h: huge bearish fvg was created on 4h, which can be tested next week.
if price gets into this area, i will look for a drop from here towards monthly fvg, or take out closest fractal and then drop
$LINK had a better run few weeks before, that explains less aggressive movement recently. after taking out major weekly fractal, it makes sense delivering the price towards ~$20 or even lower
$BTC closed previous week below the weekly inverse fvg, combining it with weekly market shift, confirming bearish narrative for me. i am expecting price to drop at least into 91-94k area.