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I post critical crypto market data and my most reliable trade signals—always with charts & real examples. 關注我將不定期得到幣圈總體經濟數據重要數據，也將把我勝率高的進場出場點位告訴大家有圖有實盤。
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The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Is Dead! Bitwise CIO: The Crypto Market Has Entered a Decade-Long Endurance Phase
#BTC☀️
The three key forces that once drove Bitcoin’s four-year cycle have significantly weakened. With institutional investors entering the market and regulatory frameworks becoming more robust, the crypto market is moving into a decade-long endurance phase, requiring investors to develop new mental models to navigate future trends.
#btc走勢
Over the past few weeks, in meetings with institutional investors, the question I’ve been asked most often is: Does Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still have any relevance?
The so-called four-year cycle refers to the historical pattern in which Bitcoin experienced three years of gains followed by a sharp decline in the fourth year.
This question is critical, because under four-year-cycle logic, next year would be a difficult one for Bitcoin—and for the broader crypto market as a whole.
#
While I cannot precisely predict the price trajectory of crypto assets next year, I believe it is unwise to blindly assume that the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat itself.
After all, the four-year cycle is not some ironclad law of nature carved into stone by a “crypto god.” It emerged from the interaction of three specific driving forces:
Bitcoin halving events: The mining reward on the Bitcoin blockchain is cut in half roughly every four years.
Interest-rate cycles: The sharp rises in interest rates in 2018 and 2022 both acted as major catalysts for crypto market downturns.
Boom-and-bust market dynamics: Every major crypto crash year—2014, 2018, and 2022—followed an exceptionally strong rally. For example, Bitcoin surged 5,530% in 2013, 1,349% in 2017, and 57% in 2021. During periods of market euphoria, fraud and speculative bubbles tend to proliferate, and when those bubbles burst—such as the regulatory crackdown on ICOs in 2018 or the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022—they directly triggered sharp market sell-offs in the same year.$BTC
#BTC☀️
The three key forces that once drove Bitcoin’s four-year cycle have significantly weakened. With institutional investors entering the market and regulatory frameworks becoming more robust, the crypto market is moving into a decade-long endurance phase, requiring investors to develop new mental models to navigate future trends.
#btc走勢
Over the past few weeks, in meetings with institutional investors, the question I’ve been asked most often is: Does Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still have any relevance?
The so-called four-year cycle refers to the historical pattern in which Bitcoin experienced three years of gains followed by a sharp decline in the fourth year.
This question is critical, because under four-year-cycle logic, next year would be a difficult one for Bitcoin—and for the broader crypto market as a whole.
#
While I cannot precisely predict the price trajectory of crypto assets next year, I believe it is unwise to blindly assume that the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat itself.
After all, the four-year cycle is not some ironclad law of nature carved into stone by a “crypto god.” It emerged from the interaction of three specific driving forces:
Bitcoin halving events: The mining reward on the Bitcoin blockchain is cut in half roughly every four years.
Interest-rate cycles: The sharp rises in interest rates in 2018 and 2022 both acted as major catalysts for crypto market downturns.
Boom-and-bust market dynamics: Every major crypto crash year—2014, 2018, and 2022—followed an exceptionally strong rally. For example, Bitcoin surged 5,530% in 2013, 1,349% in 2017, and 57% in 2021. During periods of market euphoria, fraud and speculative bubbles tend to proliferate, and when those bubbles burst—such as the regulatory crackdown on ICOs in 2018 or the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022—they directly triggered sharp market sell-offs in the same year.$BTC
All assets: enjoying the traditional Christmas rally
Bitcoin: never heard of it
Bitcoin: never heard of it
阿聯酋悄悄挖了 6790 枚比特幣，CZ 說他稍微「推了一把」
鏈上數據揭露阿聯酋透過皇室關聯企業 Citadel Mining 累計挖出價值 4.6 億美元的比特幣，帳面獲利 3.4 億美元。加上主權基金透過 BlackRock ETF 持有逾 10 億美元部位，阿聯酋正將剩餘能源轉化為數位儲備資產。#數位儲備
$BTC
鏈上情報平台 Arkham 本週稍早指出：阿拉伯聯合大公國（UAE）透過與阿布達比皇室關聯的 Citadel Mining，已累計挖出約 6,790 枚比特幣，按當前市價約值 4.6 億美元，帳面未實現獲利約 3.4 億美元（不計能源成本）。
且幾乎全部持有極少出售。Arkham 數據顯示，按近七日平均值計算，相關礦企每天仍在穩定產出約 4.2 枚 BTC。
CZ 說「推了一把」代表什麼？#CZ
CZ 長期與中東關係密切，過去：
幣安在杜拜設立區域據點
與當地政府多次交流
協助制定加密監管框架
他說「推了一把」，市場普遍解讀為：
✔ 提供政策建議
✔ 推動礦業與監管落地
✔ 協助吸引礦工與交易所遷入
這種模式其實有點像當年薩爾瓦多推 BTC，但 UAE 是用更低調、機構化方式進場。#薩爾瓦多
價值儲存的官方定性
阿聯酋政府已正式將比特幣定性為「類似於黃金的價值儲存手段」。這不是一個隨口說說的比喻，而是一個具有政策意涵的定性，它意味著比特幣在阿聯酋的監管框架中，被視為長期儲備資產，而非投機工具。
將挖礦和 ETF 持倉加總，阿聯酋的比特幣總曝險超過 10 億美元。雖然這個數字放在全球主權持有者的排名中，位於一個微妙的位置（美國僅透過資產沒收就持有數十億美元的比特幣），但阿聯酋的獨特之處在於：它的持倉 100% 來自主動決策，而非執法副產品。
這件事代表什麼？
1️⃣ UAE 正在打造「加密友善國家」形象
UAE 近年來積極推動數位資產發展，尤其在 杜拜與阿布達比建立完整監管框架，包括：
設立專門的虛擬資產監管機構
吸引交易所與 Web3 公司落地
推動礦場與區塊鏈基礎設施
若真的持有 6,790 枚 BTC（以 6–7 萬美元計算約 4–5 億美元規模），對國家主權基金來說其實不算巨大，但象徵意義很強：
👉 代表把 BTC 視為「戰略資產」而非投機工具。
對市場的潛在影響
從你平常關注鏈上數據、資金流與機構動向的角度來看，這件事有幾個重點：
如果主權資金真的入場 → 屬於「長期鎖倉籌碼」
主權持有 ≠ 交易型籌碼 → 供給壓力減少
中東資本可能成為下一輪牛市關鍵資金來源
若是自挖礦取得 → 等於把能源轉換成 BTC 儲備
這條消息的真正關鍵不是 6,790 枚本身，而是：
「國家層級正在默默建立比特幣儲備」
如果未來更多產油國用能源換 BTC，
那會是一種全新的「數位黃金標準」雛形。#比特幣鯨魚
$BTC
鏈上情報平台 Arkham 本週稍早指出：阿拉伯聯合大公國（UAE）透過與阿布達比皇室關聯的 Citadel Mining，已累計挖出約 6,790 枚比特幣，按當前市價約值 4.6 億美元，帳面未實現獲利約 3.4 億美元（不計能源成本）。
且幾乎全部持有極少出售。Arkham 數據顯示，按近七日平均值計算，相關礦企每天仍在穩定產出約 4.2 枚 BTC。
CZ 說「推了一把」代表什麼？#CZ
CZ 長期與中東關係密切，過去：
幣安在杜拜設立區域據點
與當地政府多次交流
協助制定加密監管框架
他說「推了一把」，市場普遍解讀為：
✔ 提供政策建議
✔ 推動礦業與監管落地
✔ 協助吸引礦工與交易所遷入
這種模式其實有點像當年薩爾瓦多推 BTC，但 UAE 是用更低調、機構化方式進場。#薩爾瓦多
價值儲存的官方定性
阿聯酋政府已正式將比特幣定性為「類似於黃金的價值儲存手段」。這不是一個隨口說說的比喻，而是一個具有政策意涵的定性，它意味著比特幣在阿聯酋的監管框架中，被視為長期儲備資產，而非投機工具。
將挖礦和 ETF 持倉加總，阿聯酋的比特幣總曝險超過 10 億美元。雖然這個數字放在全球主權持有者的排名中，位於一個微妙的位置（美國僅透過資產沒收就持有數十億美元的比特幣），但阿聯酋的獨特之處在於：它的持倉 100% 來自主動決策，而非執法副產品。
這件事代表什麼？
1️⃣ UAE 正在打造「加密友善國家」形象
UAE 近年來積極推動數位資產發展，尤其在 杜拜與阿布達比建立完整監管框架，包括：
設立專門的虛擬資產監管機構
吸引交易所與 Web3 公司落地
推動礦場與區塊鏈基礎設施
若真的持有 6,790 枚 BTC（以 6–7 萬美元計算約 4–5 億美元規模），對國家主權基金來說其實不算巨大，但象徵意義很強：
👉 代表把 BTC 視為「戰略資產」而非投機工具。
對市場的潛在影響
從你平常關注鏈上數據、資金流與機構動向的角度來看，這件事有幾個重點：
如果主權資金真的入場 → 屬於「長期鎖倉籌碼」
主權持有 ≠ 交易型籌碼 → 供給壓力減少
中東資本可能成為下一輪牛市關鍵資金來源
若是自挖礦取得 → 等於把能源轉換成 BTC 儲備
這條消息的真正關鍵不是 6,790 枚本身，而是：
「國家層級正在默默建立比特幣儲備」
如果未來更多產油國用能源換 BTC，
那會是一種全新的「數位黃金標準」雛形。#比特幣鯨魚
888
#Strategy增持比特币
(冲刺30K，领取8888BTC)
交易总被割？原来对手是做市商+聪明钱！
宝子们！是不是一买就跌、一卖就涨？
别归罪于运气了！
其实你根本没看清交易对面的“隐形玩家”😤
散户每笔交易背后，都有两大力量在博弈！
搞懂它们，交易胜率直接翻倍～
🔥 核心干货速记（建议收藏）：
❶ 做市商：市场“流动性后盾”
✅ 靠“双向报价”帮你快速成交，赚的是买卖价差（你手续费里藏着它的利润）
✅ 避开：开盘/尾盘流动性差时段交易，此时价差大、成本高
❷ 聪明钱：专割散户的“趋势操盘手”
✅ 套路：利用整数关口、支撑阻力位诱导散户跟风，再反向收割
✅ 识别：看资金流向（如北向资金）、成交量，避免无资金跟进的“假突破”
❸ 3个避坑小技巧
1. 交易选活跃时段，降低成本；
2. 不盲目追关键点位；
3. 信号不符及时止损，别死扛
总结：交易不是赌运气，看懂对手的玩法才是避坑关键！
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
(冲刺30K，领取8888BTC)
交易总被割？原来对手是做市商+聪明钱！
宝子们！是不是一买就跌、一卖就涨？
别归罪于运气了！
其实你根本没看清交易对面的“隐形玩家”😤
散户每笔交易背后，都有两大力量在博弈！
搞懂它们，交易胜率直接翻倍～
🔥 核心干货速记（建议收藏）：
❶ 做市商：市场“流动性后盾”
✅ 靠“双向报价”帮你快速成交，赚的是买卖价差（你手续费里藏着它的利润）
✅ 避开：开盘/尾盘流动性差时段交易，此时价差大、成本高
❷ 聪明钱：专割散户的“趋势操盘手”
✅ 套路：利用整数关口、支撑阻力位诱导散户跟风，再反向收割
✅ 识别：看资金流向（如北向资金）、成交量，避免无资金跟进的“假突破”
❸ 3个避坑小技巧
1. 交易选活跃时段，降低成本；
2. 不盲目追关键点位；
3. 信号不符及时止损，别死扛
总结：交易不是赌运气，看懂对手的玩法才是避坑关键！
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
🎙️ 來聊一下交易策略，幣圈趨勢討論
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🎙️ Cherry 全球會客廳 ｜ 币安社区基金 值得期待每一天的美好
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軟銀 Q4 大舉買進幣圈股 大幅減碼 AI 龍頭輝達，一次賣出近 60 億美元
根據最新披露的 2025 年第四季持倉變動，日本科技巨頭 SoftBank Group 在投資組合上出現明顯調整。最受市場關注的是，公司大幅減持 AI 核心概念股 NVIDIA，同時加碼兩檔與加密資產生態相關的公司，顯示創辦人孫正義在 AI 與數位金融之間重新配置風險與成長部位。#孫正義
$BTC
從減持金額來看，軟銀第四季最大的操作集中在科技權值股，Q4 最大減持是賣出逾 59.91 億美元的輝達 (NVIDIA)。其次是賣出 33.85 億美元的 T-Mobile US，以及 1.91 億美元的 Metsera、1.88 億美元的 Lemonade、3,392 萬美元的 Inter & Co。
其中，減碼輝達的規模遠高於其他個股，顯示軟銀在 AI 基礎設施概念股經歷 2025 年大幅上漲後，開始進行獲利了結或風險再平衡。市場普遍解讀，此舉並非看空 AI 長期趨勢，而是反映大型機構在高估值環境下的部位管理策略。#Nvidia's
According to the latest disclosure of portfolio changes for the fourth quarter of 2025, Japanese tech giant SoftBank Group#SoftBank made significant adjustments to its investment holdings. The most notable move was a substantial reduction in its position in AI bellwether NVIDIA, while increasing its exposure to two companies related to the crypto asset ecosystem. This suggests that founder Masayoshi Son is reallocating risk and growth exposure between AI and digital finance.
In terms of the scale of reductions, SoftBank’s largest move in Q4 focused on major technology holdings. The biggest divestment was the sale of more than $5.991 billion worth of NVIDIA shares. This was followed by the sale of $3.385 billion in T-Mobile US, $191 million in Metsera, $188 million in Lemonade, and $33.92 million in Inter & Co.
Among these, the reduction in NVIDIA was significantly larger than any other position, indicating that after the sharp rally in AI infrastructure-related stocks in 2025, SoftBank began taking profits or rebalancing risk. The market generally interprets this move not as a bearish signal on the long-term AI trend, but rather as a reflection of large institutional portfolio management strategies in a high-valuation environment.#AI
$BTC
從減持金額來看，軟銀第四季最大的操作集中在科技權值股，Q4 最大減持是賣出逾 59.91 億美元的輝達 (NVIDIA)。其次是賣出 33.85 億美元的 T-Mobile US，以及 1.91 億美元的 Metsera、1.88 億美元的 Lemonade、3,392 萬美元的 Inter & Co。
其中，減碼輝達的規模遠高於其他個股，顯示軟銀在 AI 基礎設施概念股經歷 2025 年大幅上漲後，開始進行獲利了結或風險再平衡。市場普遍解讀，此舉並非看空 AI 長期趨勢，而是反映大型機構在高估值環境下的部位管理策略。#Nvidia's
According to the latest disclosure of portfolio changes for the fourth quarter of 2025, Japanese tech giant SoftBank Group#SoftBank made significant adjustments to its investment holdings. The most notable move was a substantial reduction in its position in AI bellwether NVIDIA, while increasing its exposure to two companies related to the crypto asset ecosystem. This suggests that founder Masayoshi Son is reallocating risk and growth exposure between AI and digital finance.
In terms of the scale of reductions, SoftBank’s largest move in Q4 focused on major technology holdings. The biggest divestment was the sale of more than $5.991 billion worth of NVIDIA shares. This was followed by the sale of $3.385 billion in T-Mobile US, $191 million in Metsera, $188 million in Lemonade, and $33.92 million in Inter & Co.
Among these, the reduction in NVIDIA was significantly larger than any other position, indicating that after the sharp rally in AI infrastructure-related stocks in 2025, SoftBank began taking profits or rebalancing risk. The market generally interprets this move not as a bearish signal on the long-term AI trend, but rather as a reflection of large institutional portfolio management strategies in a high-valuation environment.#AI
🎙️ 当下行情，USD1持币稳定生息！🔥🔥
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