Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top. Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below). Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it. Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏 #Bitcoin #BTC #Halving #Cycles #HalvingCylces #BitcoinCycles #BTCcycles
$ETH remains within clear downtrend. Until it does something really bullish like drawing higher high followed by higher low, no sense in watching it for spot accumulation.
Nearest zones to watch on the dips are 2042 and liquidity pool under week's low (2007) around 1982-1992.
When will it become bullish? If first zone I've mentioned gives proper volume and push price back above ~2130 - in this case we may start hunting for the dips to buy. Till then choppy downfall.
Yesterday's candle closed bearish. That downside momentum should eventually push $BTC lower. Nearest LPs are around ~75.1k and ~74.7k. These are for bullish scenario.
Bearish scenario assumes breakdown of 1.5 month old range bottom with minimum target zone around 71-72k.
On lower timeframes there are couple of gaps left above, so there is a chance to see a bounce to 76.5-76.8k as well. Won't try to guess the sequence though.
US opened with pump and dump, forming very bearish 4H candle. That increases chances to see yesterday's 2nd target for the dips - 75830 (US Friday close). Although might bounce to 76.8k first.
After the dip below 76k, $BTC will either bounce and grow back to 77.2-77.4k (with potential to revisit top of the range at ~78k) ... or dump all the way to ~72k. That target based on weekly timeframe, but can be achieved pretty fast.
Nasdaq and SPX both found themselves in new ATH zone with gaps left behind, so now both pulling back, dragging Gold and BTC with them. Correlation ain't that strong, but certainly influential.
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 86021, 78180, 76800, 72333, 70333, 67711
Still nailing the mid-short-term direction of $BTC movements 👌🏼 The large liquidity pools at 75570 and 74800 were finally swept over the weekend ✅✅
Overall, the dip and rebound look promising for continuation higher into the CME gap above - now the nearest major liquidity target. At some point, BTC may revisit ~75830, which marked Friday’s US session close. In a more bullish scenario, however, price could get picked up higher around 76800, the UK/US POC from the same day.
The next combined UK/US POC from earlier Friday (15/05) sits higher at ~79130. Keep that level in mind as a potential resistance zone.
The oversold and overbought Telegram alarms caught the reversal extremes perfectly on both sides 😎🤌
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 86021, 78180, 76800, 72333, 70333, 67711
Wise Analyze
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
Last week’s bearish engulfing still hasn’t seen any follow-through strong enough to push $BTC down toward the liquidity around 75.5k - but the pressure remains. Yesterday, the market failed to hold above the weekly open, and the UK/US POCs shifted lower as dip buyers stepped in around 77083–77225. That zone now has to hold - otherwise, it could flip into strong resistance.
Overall, the chart remains choppy. On the 2H–8H timeframes, the direction is still down. After yesterday’s rejection, the bearish bias strengthened further, keeping the large liquidity pools at 75570 and 74800 as the main magnets for price action.
And if the market surprises us with another pump, there’s no point shorting or selling below 78.7k - especially with the nearest CME gap closing around 79k.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 86021, 76470, 75570, 74777, 72333, 70333, 67711
Last week’s bearish engulfing still hasn’t seen any follow-through strong enough to push $BTC down toward the liquidity around 75.5k - but the pressure remains. Yesterday, the market failed to hold above the weekly open, and the UK/US POCs shifted lower as dip buyers stepped in around 77083–77225. That zone now has to hold - otherwise, it could flip into strong resistance.
Overall, the chart remains choppy. On the 2H–8H timeframes, the direction is still down. After yesterday’s rejection, the bearish bias strengthened further, keeping the large liquidity pools at 75570 and 74800 as the main magnets for price action.
And if the market surprises us with another pump, there’s no point shorting or selling below 78.7k - especially with the nearest CME gap closing around 79k.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 86021, 76470, 75570, 74777, 72333, 70333, 67711
$TAO might bounce soon. In bearish scenario only to re-test Daily 20ema (270-280). In bullish to come back to the top of dynamic range at Monthly 20ema (now around 320, but could be lower in June)
April close at ~249 is crucial support marking the bottom of HTF range. Wicks there possible, but shouldn't find acceptance below in order to stay within the range.
I was right expecting $BTC to bounce here 👌🏼 Nearest LP at 77800-77860 should be covered soon. Maybe will continue towards ~78750, maybe first pull back. Not forecasting anything further.
If get stopped early chances for flash dip to 75570 / 74800 increase. These two zones remain big liquidation levels and therefore are attractive for price manipulation.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 86021, 76470, 75570, 74777, 72333, 70333, 67711
Wise Analyze
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
Lower timeframe 1-2H $BTC charts show bullish divergence and potential for the bottom of that correction to be formed around here. But that doesn't deny possibility for another dip down to 75570 / 74800.
New CME gap (now double) above up to 79012 (Binance prices) will be a target for the next swing up. If it end up bearish, won't grow much above, maybe up to 79.5-80k at most. For bullish scenario another gap up to 81280 awaits.
From higher timeframe current zone also looks good for a bounce. But today most probably will be a choppy one. So even if I'm right, the bounce itself should take place closer to the end of this week.
‼️ I've changed SMA alarms to same periods EMA. These dynamic levels will give faster response. Also added alarm for 74777 - huge LP that may be triggered and most probably will cause a bounce, but that will be a bearish on bigger scale.
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 86021, 76470, 75570, 74777, 72333, 70333, 67711
Lower timeframe 1-2H $BTC charts show bullish divergence and potential for the bottom of that correction to be formed around here. But that doesn't deny possibility for another dip down to 75570 / 74800.
New CME gap (now double) above up to 79012 (Binance prices) will be a target for the next swing up. If it end up bearish, won't grow much above, maybe up to 79.5-80k at most. For bullish scenario another gap up to 81280 awaits.
From higher timeframe current zone also looks good for a bounce. But today most probably will be a choppy one. So even if I'm right, the bounce itself should take place closer to the end of this week.
‼️ I've changed SMA alarms to same periods EMA. These dynamic levels will give faster response. Also added alarm for 74777 - huge LP that may be triggered and most probably will cause a bounce, but that will be a bearish on bigger scale.
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAH, 86021, 76470, 75570, 74777, 72333, 70333, 67711
“Elevator down” scenario I first described on May 12th finally played out ✅
Now the main thing left is closing the CME gap during the US session. On the way down, $BTC also created a fresh CME gap around 79983–81280 (Binance equivalent).
I think this bearish move is getting close to exhaustion — but there’s still no real confirmation yet.
$ETH swept both liquidity pools at 2260 & 2240 since the last update ✅ Both produced decent bounces 👌🏼 But overall PA still looks like messy sideways consolidation.
Right now only two zones really make sense for trading: 📉 Below 2218 📈 Above 2430
Everything in between is range noise and risky chop. There is also liquidity around the Weekly 20-SMA near ~2337, which may act as SR — but it still sits in the middle of the range.
⚠️ If ETH loses 2118.8, an alarm will trigger (appear in my free TG). That level likely decides whether we get another swing failure bounce… or finally break the range and slide toward 2150+.
⏰ My Free TG oversold & overbought alarms caught the local bottom at 78795 and top at 81839 👌🏼 Sometimes that alone is enough for a clean trade.
Yesterday’s pump fully recovered the Wednesday dump — much stronger than expected. That keeps the uptrend continuation scenario alive.
📈 Main condition: $BTC must hold above ~80.3k. If that order block survives, we may finally see a proper breakout of the trendline that’s been capping price since early February.
⚠️ Dips into 79.8–80.1k are still possible even in bullish scenario — but only as liquidity grabs. Acceptance below weakens the structure fast.
I’ll be looking for longs either on dips near ~80k or after confirmation that 81k flips into support.
What’s your bias from here? 👀
Wise Analyze
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$BTC hit the ~79k + Daily 20-SMA zone exactly as forecasted ✅
Asia session defended the lows, so the setup is now simple: • Holding above the 79.3–79.5k LTF bullish breaker keeps bounce potential alive toward 80.4–80.7k to fill nearby FVGs • Losing that SR + Daily 20-SMA opens the door toward the nearest 4H CME gap around ~76.5k
$BTC hit the ~79k + Daily 20-SMA zone exactly as forecasted ✅
Asia session defended the lows, so the setup is now simple: • Holding above the 79.3–79.5k LTF bullish breaker keeps bounce potential alive toward 80.4–80.7k to fill nearby FVGs • Losing that SR + Daily 20-SMA opens the door toward the nearest 4H CME gap around ~76.5k
$BTC tapped the 80k liquidity pool twice 👀 The first bounce came with weak volume, so I still think price eventually moves lower to seek stronger demand — likely toward the next major LP around the Daily 20-SMA near ~79k.
📉 Buying there may not give instant upside, but structurally it looks relatively safe. Even in a deeper collapse, BTC would likely revisit that zone later for a re-test.
Today’s UK dump also left multiple small gaps behind. That makes ~80.7k a likely revisit zone before any further downside.
⚠️ $ETH remains stuck in a choppy sideways range — no clear trend. Trading the middle makes little sense. The edges remain the best RR zones until breakout.
⚠️ $BTC Trap Zone in the Middle — Real Opportunities Sit at the Edges
Massive liquidity pools stacked above ~82.7k and below 80.3k, with the biggest cluster sitting under 79k 👀 These are the zones that actually matter. Chop in between? Mostly noise designed to farm traders.
📈 On the Daily / 4H, BTC is still technically in an uptrend. Until structure breaks, buying dips remains the higher probability play.
But don’t get too euphoric. This uptrend looks slow and fragile — the kind of “stairs up, elevator down” structure that often ends badly for overleveraged longs 🚪📉
All of my May 7th forecasted targets achieved - $BTC pulled back to 79-80k zone and bounced back to 82k to cover the nearest FVG and small LP there ✅✅
On Daily and 4H remains within uptrend. That leads to assumption that even if there will be dips to 78-79k, chances to grow more are higher. And if that move won't be stopped at 84k, then can easily skip up to ~86k (as there is wide volume gap)
If you trade #Bitcoin on higher timeframes, important to remember that on Weekly chart its a bounce after second correction wave down. Waves theory says that if next dump won't break under 60k, that can become a starting point of long term consolidation before the bigger uptrend continues. In this case mid term range can be in between 71k and 88k
The high-volatility move I mentioned yesterday has played out. On lower timeframes, the initial bullish impulse is over, and a choppy phase is likely next. BTC may dip to fill the small FVG around 77700, which aligns with the 4H visible range POC.
From there, price action will likely decide the next move: - either a pullback toward the Weekly 20-SMA (76575) - or a push higher toward the next major liquidity pool around 80k On the upside, watch two LTF levels: ~79350 and ~79666.
The upper CME gap (79444–83760) remains a realistic target for May. But if I’m wrong and the market turns down, the 71–72k zone becomes equally likely.
✈️ I’m on vacation in China until May 7th. Updates limited, and I'm not monitoring chat and personal messages.
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 86021, 79455, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401