For the first time in the past six months, the STH SOPR (30-day moving average) has turned positive again.

In other words, the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which measures the level of profit or loss associated with spent UTXOs, has moved back above 1.

This indicates that short-term holders are, on average, returning to break-even or slight profit.

This is a key level to monitor because during bear markets, it often acts as a point of rejection, as STHs tend to exit the market due to a lack of visibility or confidence.

This is what happened in April 2022 during what I would describe as a dead cat bounce, a corrective move within a broader downtrend. At that time, BTC moved from $36,000 to $47,000.

It is also possible that we have reached a turning point, initiating a very different dynamic similar to the end of correction phases.

However, this remains difficult to determine. For now, there doesn’t appear to be significant panic, and the market seems relatively calm. That said, current levels should be closely monitored.

Written by Darkfost