GEMINI
I'm just an immature trader and a crypto lover 👋
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#XRP handelt unter seinem aggregierten Halterkostenniveau, was Panikverkäufe ausgelöst hat. Der 7-Tage #EMA von SOPR ist von 1,16 im Juli 2025 auf etwa 0,96 gefallen, was zeigt, dass die meisten Halter jetzt Verluste realisieren. Die On-Chain-Rentabilität hat sich ins Negative gedreht, was auf einen breiten Marktstress hinweist.
Dieses Setup entspricht genau der Phase von September 2021 bis Mai 2022, als SOPR lange Zeit unter 1 blieb und der Preis seitwärts ging, bevor er sich stabilisierte. Wenn dieses Muster anhält, könnte XRP in einer Konsolidierungsphase bleiben, bis der Verkaufsdruck nachlässt und #SOPR die 1 wieder erreicht.
Dieses Setup entspricht genau der Phase von September 2021 bis Mai 2022, als SOPR lange Zeit unter 1 blieb und der Preis seitwärts ging, bevor er sich stabilisierte. Wenn dieses Muster anhält, könnte XRP in einer Konsolidierungsphase bleiben, bis der Verkaufsdruck nachlässt und #SOPR die 1 wieder erreicht.
Die Marktbedingungen im Bereich von 70.000 $ zeigen, dass die nicht realisierten Verluste nahezu 16 Prozent der gesamten Marktkapitalisierung erreichen, was auf einen erhöhten Stress bei den Teilnehmern hinweist. Die allgemeine Struktur spiegelt eng wider, was sich Anfang Mai 2022 abspielte, als die Preisdynamik unter Verkaufsdruck schwächer wurde, ohne einen breiteren makroökonomischen Zusammenbruch auszulösen.
Trotz des anhaltenden Preisdrucks verlangsamten sich die Abflüsse aus Anlageprodukten für digitale Vermögenswerte auf 187 Millionen USD. Historisch gesehen hat es oft einen potenziellen Wendepunkt markiert, wenn die Kapitalabflüsse während einer Marktschwäche zu sinken beginnen, wo der Verkaufsdruck nachlässt und die Stimmung sich vor einem möglichen Trendwechsel zu stabilisieren beginnt.
Market data is showing a clear shift in behavior from large #Bitcoin holders during the recent price decline. On February 6, accumulator addresses absorbed roughly 66.94k BTC, the highest daily inflow recorded in this cycle. Instead of reacting with panic selling, these wallets appear to be using the dip as an opportunity to accumulate. Such patterns usually point to long term confidence and often emerge when prices are undervalued and sentiment is weak.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
In den letzten 24 Stunden erlebte der Kryptomarkt massive Liquidationen, wobei 88.396 Händler aus ihren Positionen gedrängt wurden. Die gesamten Liquidationen erreichten 336,27 Millionen Dollar. Der größte Verlust kam von einer einzigen #BTCUSD Position auf Hyperliquid, wo ein Auftrag über 18,85 Millionen Dollar liquidiert wurde ❗️
Since the correction began, pressure has moved from short term holders to long term holders, with the 6-12 month and 12-18 month cohorts already under water at cost bases around $103,188 and $85,849, showing that the drawdown is reaching deeper into the holder base. Price reacted near the realized price of the 18 month-2 year cohort at $63,654, a level that likely matters to higher conviction holders, but the rising cost basis of this group indicates that higher priced coins are continuing to age into long term holdings.
Rather than drifting without a reference point, #Bitcoin’s price tends to move toward the average cost paid by its holders, known as the realized price. This level reflects the collective commitment of those who hold Bitcoin balances and are willing to keep them at those prices.
When the market trades below this average, selling pressure weakens because most holders are at a loss. When it trades well above it, profit taking increases. In this way, holders themselves provide Bitcoin with value through their behavior and cost basis.
When the market trades below this average, selling pressure weakens because most holders are at a loss. When it trades well above it, profit taking increases. In this way, holders themselves provide Bitcoin with value through their behavior and cost basis.
The current #Bitcoin cycle is shaping up to be one of the tougher bear market phases on record, with prices down roughly 30% when compared to similar historical periods. A bear market here is defined as any period where Bitcoin trades below its 365 day simple moving average.
In previous cycles, price action below this level has often coincided with prolonged weakness, elevated uncertainty, and extended consolidation phases before recovery. So far, this decline places the ongoing phase among the weaker bear market performances in Bitcoin’s history.
In previous cycles, price action below this level has often coincided with prolonged weakness, elevated uncertainty, and extended consolidation phases before recovery. So far, this decline places the ongoing phase among the weaker bear market performances in Bitcoin’s history.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Trading near $60,000, price sits roughly 37% below the top 20% cost basis around $95,000, highlighting significant unrealized losses and psychological pressure on large holders. Since the October all time high, the market has repeatedly failed to hold above the cost basis of the top 1%, 5%, 10% and 20% of supply, the strongest buyers remain underwater and are likely to sell into rebounds rather than drive sustained upside. This setup closely resembles the May 2022 phase, where prolonged weakness below major cost basis levels kept sentiment fragile and upside attempts limited for an extended period.
The Realized Profit to Loss Ratio (90 day SMA) has been steadily declining since late July, despite the market reaching a second all time high in early October. Currently hovering around 1.45, the metric signals a meaningful drop in realized profitability.
While this points to increasing strain on market participants, the ratio remains above the sub 1 zone that has historically coincided with extreme capitulation, indicating that broader panic has not yet taken hold.
While this points to increasing strain on market participants, the ratio remains above the sub 1 zone that has historically coincided with extreme capitulation, indicating that broader panic has not yet taken hold.
Implied volatility has risen faster than one week realized volatility, keeping the volatility risk premium positive. That dynamic continues to favor option carry. If realized volatility cools as recent price swings fade, short option positions should retain an advantage through expiry. The current backdrop still supports short term option strategies, assuming volatility stays contained in the near term.
Immer noch extreme Angst 👀
#Bitcoin’s primary valuation gauge has now slipped to an all time low, a market condition never seen before. Historically, extremes like this tend to surface near phases where downside risk weakens and longer term accumulation quietly begins. Although price action may remain unstable, these moments have often aligned with the early stages of broader market recovery.
The LTH cost basis heatmap reveals a clear accumulation zone in the low $60Ks, where long term holders have built significant positions. This level continues to act as a strong foundation for price, as coins held in this range are typically less reactive to short term volatility. Above current price, sell side pressure increases near the ~$80K area, marking a critical resistance band where supply is more concentrated.
This $60K-$80K range defines the active supply zone of the market. Holding above the lower boundary suggests underlying strength, while a decisive move through $80K would indicate that existing supply has been absorbed and demand is taking control.
This $60K-$80K range defines the active supply zone of the market. Holding above the lower boundary suggests underlying strength, while a decisive move through $80K would indicate that existing supply has been absorbed and demand is taking control.
During heightened #Bitcoin price volatility on February 5, wallets associated with World Liberty Finance, a project linked to Donald Trump, sold a substantial amount of Wrapped Bitcoin. On chain data shows that a total of 173 WBTC was converted into approximately $11.75 million in #USDC at an average price close to $67,000 per BTC. The sales were executed through several closely timed transactions, suggesting a calculated move rather than a single impulsive trade.
Such a shift into stablecoins during volatile market conditions often points to short term risk management or profit taking. While there is no official confirmation of a broader strategy change, transactions of this size tend to draw attention from traders, as they may indicate caution, liquidity preparation, or plans to re-enter the market at more favorable levels rather than a clear bearish outlook on Bitcoin.
Such a shift into stablecoins during volatile market conditions often points to short term risk management or profit taking. While there is no official confirmation of a broader strategy change, transactions of this size tend to draw attention from traders, as they may indicate caution, liquidity preparation, or plans to re-enter the market at more favorable levels rather than a clear bearish outlook on Bitcoin.
#Bitcoin’s move from $72K down to $59K set off the biggest long liquidation event of the year. Many short term holders were caught off guard and began transferring coins to exchanges at a loss, reaching a new yearly high. This shows strong fear in the market, with recent entrants exiting quickly as selling pressure intensified.
Mehr als 9,3 Millionen #Bitcoins sind derzeit im Minus, während der Preis nahe bei 67,4K $ gehandelt wird. Dies ist das höchste Niveau seit Januar 2023, was darauf hindeutet, dass viele Investoren Positionen halten, die zu höheren Preisen gekauft wurden. Solche Perioden bringen oft eine erhöhte Volatilität mit sich, da die Marktteilnehmer das Risiko und die kurzfristige Richtung neu bewerten.
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