Pelin Ay

Binance Fund Flow Ratio Shows Uncertainty Despite Increased Volatility

The price is currently below the SMA (14, 30, 50) averages. This indicates that funds flowing into Binance are weak relative to the price. We can understand that the BTC entering the exchange is more for selling than buying. Demand is still weak. This structure will not generate upward momentum.

All averages of the Fund Flow Ratio are horizontal and slightly downward sloping. Even if the price goes up, there isn't enough demand to reverse the main trend upwards. Since the price isn't rising, the amount of money entering the market isn't increasing. There are no new buyers; only existing liquidity is changing hands. Even if the price rises, this won't be sustainable. Therefore, as I've repeatedly stated, even if we experience a short-term upward wave, the main trend will continue downwards.

Another noteworthy point in the chart is the sharp upward and downward wicks, but the average value isn't expanding. This means that intraday trading is intense, with only scalping and short-term trades. There's no positioning; investors are indecisive. Volatility exists, but it lacks the power to reverse the trend.

There is a Price-Fund Flow Divergence. BTC is currently trading around $87K. While the price is falling, the Fund Flow Ratio isn't showing a strong accompanying increase. This indicates a lack of strong buying at support levels. Bitcoin hasn't yet reached a cheap price perception. Whales aren't taking risks yet. Based on this data, a major rally cannot be expected. Correctionary rallies, sideways and downward consolidation are possible, as the price encounters selling pressure with every rise.

Without sustained Fund Flow Ratio above 0.02, rallies in BTC will act as selling opportunities. #Bitcoin

Binance Trade Volume Shows Altcoin Season Ended Before It Even Began

The chart shows that the market has been moving in an altcoin-centric mode for extended periods, rather than a BTC-centric one.

During periods of increased BTC volume, the share of BTC expands upwards from the 10-15% range. Simultaneously, Others volume shrinks. ETH generally remains neutral or slightly retreating. This indicates that the market is reducing risk. During these periods, Altcoin/BTC pairs generally weaken as well. Volatility decreases.

Periods of Increased ETH Volume (Orange Area Expanding): BTC volume remains stable or declines. Others have not yet peaked. ETH share expands towards the 25-35% range. In this case, the market is taking on a level of risk from BTC, but the altcoin season hasn't fully begun yet. The ETH price is outperforming BTC. ETH dominance is increasing. Large L1s are following ETH.

During periods when other major altcoin volume peaks (the green area is dominant), Others volume reaches 60-75%. BTC and ETH volumes are squeezed together simultaneously. This increases the high risk appetite in the market. Capital flows to assets with the highest beta. Sharp increases are observed in altcoins, while BTC generally shows a sideways rise.

This chart shows that volume doesn't follow the price; instead, it prepares the ground for the price's future direction.

Currently, Others volume appears to have significantly decreased. ETH volume is stable upwards, while BTC volume is clearly showing a tendency to recover from its bottom. This proves that the broad-based rally mode in altcoins has ended. We can say that the market is either in an upward phase specifically for ETH or a gradual return to BTC.

In this process, not random altcoins, but coins with high liquidity and a narrative will move. BTC will not experience a sudden dump, but its upward momentum will remain limited. ETH will remain more resilient than BTC. $BTC $ETH

Bitcoin schloss am Montag bei 87.000 $. Solange der Preis die Unterstützung bei 81.500 $ hält, denke ich, dass er zunächst steigen wird (102.000 $ - 110.000 $) und dann seinen Hauptabwärtstrend fortsetzen wird.

Die MR-Spanne dieser Woche für #bitcoin wird bei 87.800 $ - 90.500 $ liegen. Ich glaube nicht, dass der gesamte #Altcoin Markt diesem Anstieg folgen wird. Leider gibt es nicht viel Zufluss in Altcoins, außer für einige große Projekte. Diese Projekte sind im Allgemeinen große Münzen, die die ETF-Zulassung erhalten haben.

Ich möchte auch hinzufügen, dass ich immer noch sehe, wie Menschen Altcoin-Portfolios erstellen, was ein falscher Ansatz ist. Lassen Sie uns zuerst den Bärenboden sehen, dann wird die Erstellung von Portfolios einfach sein. Ich denke, $BTC sollte auf mindestens 72.000 $ fallen.

Bitcoin dominansı yükselişini sürdürüyor. #Bitcoin yukarı mini bir yükseliş yapsa da çoğu #altcoin eşlik edecek gibi durmuyor. Muhtemelen $BTC yükselişi yine çoğu altcoini ezmeye devam edecek. Umarım spotunuzdaki coinler ayrışanlardan olur.

Bitcoin için detaylı analizi yarın paylaşacağım ancak şunu söyleyebilirim. Ana yön aşağı, ama düşüşün düzeltmesi olarak kısa bir yükseliş dalgası göreceğiz. $BTCDOM

CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) Data Shows a Mini Christmas Rally is Possible

CDD measures long-term investor (LTH) behavior. In the chart, CDD bars have been irregular but not excessively high in recent weeks. Additionally, the CDD-SMA(30/50/100) short-term averages are not breaking upwards. This is very important because long-term coins are not flooding exchanges en masse. In other words, whales are not aggressively selling.

When CDD rises sharply in the chart, the price is generally near the peak. Usually, a correction or volatile consolidation follows.

According to the chart, if CDD is calm or the price is volatile, it indicates that selling pressure is coming from short-term traders. The current situation perfectly summarizes this. This pattern indicates that the price is open to surprise upward movements.

For a Christmas rally, the following conditions are required: LTH will not sell off, CDD will not increase while the price falls, and liquidity will circulate through small investors.

The chart clearly shows that the first two conditions are met. Therefore, the CDD (Credit Value Added) data isn't preventing a mini Christmas rally. However, this doesn't mean a Christmas rally is certain; it simply indicates that it's structurally possible.

Previously, in situations similar to today's CDD data, rallies occurred when CDD data was low, while declines remained relatively small. This upcoming mini-rise can be interpreted as a correction to a previous decline. The key point to note is that if a sudden, high CDD data release occurs while the price is rising, we can conclude that this rise is a trap. Currently, there is no such signal. $BTC #bitcoin

XRP ETF Genehmigung konnte den Verkauf nicht stoppen

Wenn man sich das Binance Inflow-Value Band-Diagramm ansieht, kommen die meisten Zuflüsse aus dem Bereich von 100K – 1M XRP und 1M+ XRP. Diese Beträge deuten darauf hin, dass Wale, nicht kleine Investoren, aktiv Münzen zur Börse bewegen. Große Beträge, die zur Börse gesendet werden, sind in der Regel Vorbereitungen für Verkäufe.

Das Diagramm zeigt, dass nach jedem großen Zufluss der Preis ein niedrigeres Hoch und ein niedrigeres Tief bildet. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass das Angebot die Nachfrage unterdrückt, da es im Spotmarkt keine neuen starken Käufer gibt. Selbst wenn Wale keine starken Verkäufe tätigen, fällt der Preis weiter aufgrund des erhöhten Angebots.

Basierend auf der Zuflussdichte und den Preisreaktionen im Diagramm scheint die erste wichtige Unterstützungsebene bei $1.82-$1.87 zu liegen. Dies wird als die Ebene angesehen, bei der der Preis während des letzten Rückgangs kurz versucht hat, sich zu halten, und kleine Käufer aufgetaucht sind. Wenn jedoch große Zuflüsse weiterhin bestehen, könnte der Preis auf $1.5-$1.66 zurückfallen. Kurz gesagt, dieses Diagramm zeigt keine Vorbereitung auf einen Aufschwung.

Theoretisch dachten wir alle, dass der XRP ETF-Prozess institutionelle Nachfrage generieren würde und dass der Spotkauf den Preis in die Höhe treiben würde. Was wir jedoch festgestellt haben, waren hochvolumige XRP-Zuflüsse zu Binance. Dies liegt daran, dass Wale die Ersten waren, die handelten, als die ETFs genehmigt wurden und die Erwartungen stiegen. Sie haben ihre zuvor angesammelten XRP verkauft, um von der ETF-Genehmigung zu profitieren. Mit anderen Worten, Wale nutzten die ETF-Genehmigung, um an kleine Investoren zu verkaufen. Der Preis trifft jedes Mal auf Verkaufsdruck, wenn er $1.95 erreicht. Es wäre nicht realistisch, einen Bullenmarkt zu erwarten, bis die Zuflüsse abnehmen. $XRP

Ethereum is the Most Transferred Coin from Miners to Binance

Last year, #Ethereum was by far the leader in transfers from miners to exchanges. Throughout the chart, transfers reached levels of over 100M USD. It appears that miners are providing liquidity through $ETH . Miners seem to have played a significant role in Ethereum's lack of a bull run and the premature end of the altcoin rally.

$USDT and then USDC follow Ethereum in miner transfers. Miners have made regular and significant transfers, and it seems they prefer to remain in cash after sales. This leads to reduced market volatility.

WBTC follows USDT and USDC exchange transfers. Although small in number, it is strategically important because miners solve BTC not directly, but in tokenized form. This results in limited upward movements for the BTC price.

The altcoin most transferred from miners to exchanges is $LINK It stands out significantly compared to other altcoins. Looking at the price movement, it's clear this transfer is for liquidation purposes.

Miners are minimizing their risks while increasing their cash position.
It's clear they are not in long-term holding mode. A strong bull trend is not expected at times like these. Rises are short-lived and encounter selling pressure. This type of structure is frequently seen during bear seasons.

Ethereum, im Gegensatz zu Bitcoin, befindet sich in einer positiveren Position. Obwohl der Abwärtstrend noch nicht gebrochen ist, gibt es eine Erholung. Ein Anstieg auf 3324 $ ist normal. Dieser Anstieg bedeutet nicht unbedingt, dass es bullisch ist. Ein Schlusskurs über diesem Niveau ist notwendig, um den Abwärtstrend zu brechen. $ETH

Bitcoin hat am Montag erneut negativ geschlossen. Ich denke, der Rückgang wird anhalten, bevor die Formation abgeschlossen ist. Aus diesem Diagramm scheint es, dass wir das $100K-Niveau für einige Zeit nicht sehen werden, wenn dieser Schluss kein Fallstrick ist.

Über $90K zu gehen, scheint jetzt schwierig zu sein. Zuerst $81,500, dann $72,000. Wenn das der Boden ist, großartig. Wenn nicht, werden wir einen bärischen Boden von $50K sehen, dann wird der Bullenmarkt fortgesetzt.

Seit dem Ausbruch warne ich dich, dass mein #Bitcoin-Peak-Ziel nicht erreicht wurde und dass er früh in den Bärenmarkt eingetreten ist. Ich hoffe, du hast keine erheblichen Verluste erlitten. Diejenigen, die sagen, es gab keinen Bullenmarkt, endeten leider mit #altcoins, die keinen Bullenmarkt erlebt haben. Ich habe auch Münzen gekauft, die keinen Bullenmarkt erlebt haben, aber einige waren anders, wie $Sei, $Ton usw. Bitcoin erlebte einen Bullenmarkt. Jetzt ist es wichtig, sie separat zu verfolgen, anstatt Altcoins als Ganzes zu betrachten.

Ich habe $BTC für $20K während des Bullenmarktes 2021 gekauft. Ich habe es für etwa $98K verkauft. Ich werde jetzt beginnen, #Bitcoin schrittweise von $50K und darunter zu kaufen.

Bitcoin Panic Selling Hasn't Started Yet

The chart shows an upward trend in total inflow volume, but this increase alone doesn't generate an aggressive sell signal. In other words, BTC is coming into the market, but there isn't immediate pressure to sell. This suggests the effect on price will be controlled and spread over time.

The most concentrated bands on the chart are generally 0.1 – 1 BTC and 1 – 10 BTC. This group usually consists of individual investors taking profits and investors transferring for short-term trading. These investors only create micro-selling pressure in the spot market. However, as long as liquidity remains strong, they don't produce a sharp dump. Although the price struggles to move upwards, it generally finds a bottom below ($89K). This structure on the chart pushes the price towards a downward, rather than upward, consolidation.

The number of investors accumulating in the 10 – 100 BTC band is not yet dangerous. Investors in this range are in the transition zone between smart money and retail. The chart shows that this band produces frequent and irregular spikes. The lack of continuity prevents sustained selling pressure that would disrupt the trend. Therefore, the price experiences a fluctuating pullback instead of a sharp breakout.

Investors holding 100, 1K, and 1K+ BTC are holding intermittently and without consistency. This indicates that whales are not yet in aggressive selling mode. It's unrealistic to expect a large, one-time sell-off of Bitcoin after the ETF approval, as institutional investors are now aiming to increase their Bitcoin reserves. Therefore, declines are gradual, or one investor sees a buying opportunity while another sells. This prevents the price from exhibiting a collapse even within a bear trend.

Unless continuity increases in 1K+ BTC inflows, the horizontal downward price movement will continue until the bear season reaches its bottom price. $BTC

Bitcoin dominance has entered an upward trend. It wouldn't be realistic to expect major increases for altcoins. There will certainly be divergent coins, but given the sheer number of projects in the market and the fact that money withdrawn from Bitcoin isn't flowing into altcoins as it used to, I don't expect a major altcoin bull run until the fourth quarter of 2026. $BTC

DXY continues its decline. This drop could bring a false dawn to crypto. If it doesn't rise from the 97.15 level and continues to fall, the $102K-$110K range I'm expecting for #bitcoin could be reached. $BTC

Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis: Bear Season Has Begun

First, looking at the Bitcoin chart, the price is clearly below the short, medium, and long-term moving averages. The price is sloping downwards from the SMA(7–14–30) and is positioned below the SMA(50–100), clearly indicating a downward trend.

Reactions are being sold off at the falling averages, meaning the averages have now become dynamic resistance. Resistance attempts are coming with low volume. Buyers are not gaining dominance.

Volume in sell candles is deeper than in buy candles. Buying volume is not accompanying recoveries.

In short, BTC is currently in the reaction phase of a bear market. The structure is still downward, and upward movements do not inspire confidence.

Ethereum is also below the averages but is doing better than BTC. The SMA(7–14) is attempting an upward curve, showing a desire for a short-term recovery. However, the SMA(50–100) is still above, meaning the main trend has not changed.

The rebound from the bottom is stronger and more stable than BTC's. Candlestick patterns are cleaner, wicks are shorter, and there's no panic selling.

The increase in volume after the bottom is healthier than in BTC. Buying is still limited but not completely gone.

Ethereum is holding stronger than Bitcoin, but this strength is not yet at the level of a trend reversal.

Considering both charts together, I can say that ETH is holding stronger than BTC. However, the market hasn't yet entered "risk-on" mode.

In both charts, long-term averages are sloping downwards, rebounds are below resistance, and volume is insufficient for an uptrend. The market is not ready for a strong rise. BTC cannot lead, the market cannot go up. ETH is resilient but cannot start a trend alone.

The Bitcoin rally has ended for now. We will first see the bottom of the bear season ($50K), then we will continue the rise. $BTC $ETH

According to ETH Funding Rates, Futures Demand Isn't Meeting the Need to Start a Rally

Recent positive funding rates are lower than in the previous period. There isn't heavy long pressure; that is, the market isn't aggressively engaging in leveraged buying. Negative areas are very limited; it's also clear that short positions aren't dominant. Therefore, I can't say there's excessive optimism in the market, but the long side is still dominant, albeit weakly.

When funding remains positive but low, we can say that leveraged long positions aren't strong and only small investors are trading. This indicates a lack of power to push the price up or down. The price enters a consolidation period at this time. The last part of the chart shows ETH fluctuating around $3.1K; this seems consistent with the funding structure.

Based on this chart, it's not difficult to predict that the ETH price will continue to stabilize in the $3.3K–$3.7K range. Because long transactions are weak but dominant. There is no selling pressure. The price hasn't found a peak yet. Therefore, I think the maximum rise could be around $3700.

The fact that funding rates remain at these levels indicates insufficient demand for futures contracts to support a major rally. $ETH #Ethereum

Für Ethereum denke ich, dass der Höhepunkt zwischen 3.350 $ und 3.700 $ liegen wird. Danach wird der Rückgang weitergehen. Ich sage einen bärischen Boden um 900 $ voraus. #Ethereum $ETH

Das erwartete Szenario von Bitcoin setzt sich fort. Ich erwarte, dass es zuerst $102.000 erreicht und dann weiter fällt. Die Kosten für Miner liegen zwischen $51.000 und $57.000. Während des Bullenmarktes 2021 lagen die Kosten für Miner bei $29.000, und der Preis fiel auf $14. Das heißt, er fiel unter $15.000. Wenn ein ähnlicher Rückgang erneut auftritt, wird der Bereich von $36.000 bis $42.000 der Boden der Bärenmarktsaison sein. #bitcoin $BTC

In der letzten Woche kehrte $DYX, das kurzzeitig mit #Bitcoin korreliert war, zu seinem normalen Verlauf zurück und begann zu fallen, als #bitcoin stieg. Es ist klar, dass dieser Rückgang auf 98,16 fallen wird. Ich glaube jedoch, dass er dann nach oben umkehren wird. Das liegt daran, dass $BTC wahrscheinlich einen Höchststand finden und dann fallen wird. Ich erwarte, dass dieser Höchststand diese Woche $102K erreicht, aber es scheint relativ niedriges Volumen zu sein. Ich behalte den Short genau im Auge.

Ethereum Binance Reserves Rising

The chart clearly shows that the Ethereum Exchange Reserve has been in a continuous downtrend, particularly since July 2025. This decline reached levels of 3.8 million by the end of November, the lowest level in recent months. The fact that the reserve never fell below $1.4K indicates that the ETH price has formed a strong base around $1.4K. The price never dropped below $1.4K, and aggressive buying followed each test. This movement demonstrates that the 1.4K level is a strong support level in terms of supply and demand.

While this base level has been maintained, the continuous decline in reserves during the same period should have positively impacted the price, but the price has actually decreased proportionally to the reserve. I interpret this as a rallying cry for whales at $1.4K. Therefore, any hold above 1.4K may be paving the way for the start of a temporary upward trend.

The final section of the chart shows a small but significant upward movement in the reserves after the sharp decline. This means that ETH withdrawn from Binance is being held in cold wallets, not sold. Small increases in reserves, however, transfer ETH held in wallets to the exchange for purchase. This is typically a move that sends ETH to the exchange for sale during a rally following a bottom confirmation. In other words, there are investors willing to sell during the initial upward movement. This indicates that ETH, which fell from $4,950 to $2,600, has found a temporary bottom and is expected to rise to $3,325. The downtrend will then continue, with the price aiming to reach the base support of $1,400.

SMA30 and supply pressure are converging at $1.6K.

This area will be a test of strength for the uptrend. Even if sharp spikes occur at $1.4K, I believe buyers will emerge within this range. $ETH

Save beautiful Setup $ACT

If #Spell rebounds from the $0.000255 double bottom, we could have a good long opportunity in the futures. $SPELL